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Don’t miss the chance to bet on Champions League Round of 16, because the first leg produced few surprises. Aston Villa were able to go to Club Brugge and deal the upstarts a 3-1 road beating that should make the second leg largely a matter of defense and careful play. PSG have come on strong lately, but their questions on offense remain unanswered as English Premier League table leaders Liverpool were able to cross the Channel and deliver a 1-0 win.
Feyenoord’s venerable home record did take a beating, but they were going to run into a team that had the firepower to win in front of those fans, and Inter Milan were able to do it. Some surprises included Lille heading to Borussia Dortmund and delivering a 1-1 draw that leaves the door open for the French side simply to prevail by a single goal at home and advance to the quarterfinal without penalties. We didn’t expect PSV Eindhoven to beat Arsenal, but taking a 7-1 throttling in front of their own home fans was quite unexpected. We also didn’t see Barcelona only managing a single goal at Benfica.
This week we have the second leg of the Round of 16, so take a look at the schedule preview as well as our sports betting thoughts.
Bet on Champions League Round of 16, Leg 2 Schedule with Top Picks
Barcelona (-285) vs Benfica (+570) (Draw +460)
When: Tuesday, March 11, 1:45 pm EDT
Barcelona lead on aggregate, 1-0
In the first leg, Barcelona saw Pau Cubarsí sent off in the 22nd minute, so grinding out a 1-0 win on the road with just ten men showed some resilience. Raphinha now has 23 goals in 21 Champions League matches, and has tallied the winning goal against Benfica in both of their meetings this time around.
The loss sent Benfica to its 13 loss in their last 24 UEFA showdowns against Spanish teams (along with eight draws and just three wins). Failing to leverage the man advantage into a ball or two in the back of the Barcelona net, in front of their home fans, represents a huge missed opportunity. It’s hard to see Benfica even managing a draw in front of a raucous Catalan crowd. I’m not saying this will turn into a rout, but if you want to push up your odds by predicting a final margin, I’d look for Barcelona to win by two goals (+350) if you want more value than the straight-up win would bring.
Inter Milan (-300) vs Feyenoord (+700) (Draw +410)
When: Tuesday, March 11, 1:45 pm EDT
Inter lead on aggregate, 2-0
Taking that 2-0 beating in front of the Rotterdam faithful now has Feyenoord on the ropes down at the San Siro. They did play well in their last action in that venerable stadium, as they drew 1-1 with AC Milan in February to make it to the last 16. They also got a save on a penalty out of goalie Timon Wellenreuther in the first leg, so things could be even darker heading down to Italy.
Inter benefited from solid finishing from Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez, who now has six goals in this Champions League run. As long as Inter can stay focused on managing the Feyenoord counterattack, then they should be able to lock down the fort and get the win. Taking Inter to win doesn’t provide a ton of value, but I also like the under 2.5 goals at +124 for this match.
Liverpool (+125) vs Paris Saint-Germain (+180) (Draw +275)
When: Tuesday, March 11, 1:45 pm EDT
Liverpool lead on aggregate, 1-0
Some interesting stats from this win: Liverpool possessed for just 35% of the match and launched just two shots. The hosts launched an eye-popping 28. Liverpool scored the match’s lone goal with three minutes left in regulation on the only shot that they managed to put on frame. Even a draw would have been a gift, so coming away from France with a crucial away goal and a one-goal aggregate lead borders on the miraculous.
Don’t count on another scoreless draw, or near-scoreless draw, this time around. PSG have a 93-match streak in Champions League play without a 0-0 result. The fact that PSG have their backs against the wall should make Tuesday’s fixture a rowdy one. Based on their Premier League form and their run through the Champions League, taking Liverpool to win makes a lot of sense. With PSG openings things up to embrace risk, though, expect the lid to come off the scoring. You can find over 3.5 total goals at +146 or thereabouts on a number of books, and a 3-2 result is quite doable this time around.
Bayer Leverkusen (+165) vs Bayern Munich (+150) (Draw +242)
When: Tuesday, March 11, 1:45 pm EDT
Bayern lead on aggregate, 3-0
Bayern ended a six-match winless streak against Leverkusen in emphatic fashion in front of their home crowd. That gave Leverkusen just five losses across all competitions since May 2023, but they also have one win, one draw and nine losses in their last 11 last-16 matches in Champions League play. They face a team in Bayern that have advanced to the quarterfinals 22 times in the Champions League era, more than any other team.
Harry Kane tallied twice for Bayern and now has 30 or more goals in a single season seven different times in his club career. Leverkusen pride themselves on shutdown defense and have struggled a bit offensively this season. The offensive struggles showed up again in Munich, while their elite defense apparently failed to get on the bus. Expect the defending Bundesliga champions to show pride in front of their home fans and perhaps even get the win, but not by enough to erase this deficit. Leverkusen to win.
Lille (+155) vs Borussia Dortmund (+157) (Draw +246)
When: Wednesday, March 12, 1:45 pm EDT
Tied on aggregate, 1-1
Of all the matches on this slate, this is the one that might be the toughest to predict. In the league phase, Lille knocked off Real Madrid and scored six goals against Feyenoord. Dortmund has had a big win in France in the past, taking down PSG, 1-0, in last year’s Champions League to get to the final. They need to up their play, while Lille are just playing with house money. Lille to win.
Aston Villa (-171) vs Club Brugge (+400) (Draw +320)
When: Wednesday, March 12, 1:45 pm EDT
Aston Villa lead on aggregate, 3-1
It’s important to remember that Club Brugge won at Atalanta in their playoff ahead of the last 16. However, the size of this deficit means that the Belgian side will have to take a lot of risks to get back in this aggregate matchup, and Aston Villa should be able to take that desperation and turn it into some breakaways. Aston Villa to win.
Arsenal (-255) vs PSV Eindhoven (+580) (Draw +380)
When: Wednesday, March 12, 1:45 pm EDT
Arsenal lead on aggregate, 7-1
Will Arsenal play some reserves on Wednesday after demolishing PSV in the first leg? That certainly makes a lot of sense. We also see a conservative approach loading for the Gunners as they are also in the middle of English Premier League play – although a draw at Manchester United this weekend has their title hopes on life support.
PSV have been slipping a bit in the Dutch first division, falling behind Ajax as their form has taken a tumble. The largest aggregate comeback for an away team in a Champions League phase has been two goals, so Arsenal look solid to advance, of course. I see Arsenal falling back into a conservative stance and putting some backups out there for much of the match. I am liking the match to stay under 2.5 goals at +116.
Atletico Madrid (+148) vs Real Madrid (+152) (Draw +270)
When: Wednesday, March 12, 1:45 pm EDT
Real Madrid lead on aggregate, 2-1
This aggregate Madrid derby should bring another raucous soccer night to the Spanish capital. Real Madrid have made at least the quarterfinals for four straight years; since the 2010-2011 campaign, they’ve only missed the semifinals twice. Atletico is another solid Spanish side, but I’m not sure they can take the pressure of taking down one of this tournament’s elite teams. Real Madrid to win.
Bet on Champions League Picks to Win the Title
- Barcelona +350
- Real Madrid +400
- Liverpool +400
- Bayern Munich +550
- Arsenal +610
- Inter Milan +990
- PSG +1600
- Atletico Madrid +2800
- Aston Villa +2800
- Borussia Dortmund +6600
- Lille +10000
- Bayer Leverkusen +14000
- Benfica +14000
- Club Brugge +70000
- Feyenoord +75000
- PSV Eindhoven +225000
If Liverpool can hold off PSG, then their road to the championship would take them through the Aston Villa-Club Brugge winner and then, more than likely, the Arsenal-Real Madrid winner. Lille would have to make it through a real gauntlet to get to the finals, as they would likely follow up a win over Dortmund with tilts against Barcelona and Bayern. There aren’t any easy outs left in this bracket, of course, but the bottom of the bracket looks scarier at this point.
Raphinha tearing it up this season 😮💨#UCL pic.twitter.com/PExPkK8ydC
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 10, 2025
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