NFL Draft Top Picks: Getting a franchise quarterback is one of the most important steps that any team can take in this era of pro football. There was a time when you could run a third-string quarterback out there and win a game with rushing and defense – the then-Baltimore Colts did it to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V.
Even in Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos used a smashmouth defense to shut down the Carolina Panthers in a 24-10 win with a very limited Peyton Manning running the offense. Now, though, you can’t win a title without an elite signal-caller.
You can’t even get to a conference championship game without one. However, acquiring that franchise quarterback is extremely difficult.
The Cleveland Browns haven’t had a franchise quarterback since Otto Graham’s era. Though Brian Sipe came close and Baker Mayfield showed promise before the team moved on, Deshaun Watson was signed to a record guaranteed contract, hoping he could be that solution.
Watson’s ongoing injuries and inconsistent play compel the team to endure his contract. Despite having the second overall draft pick, they will not select Shedeur Sanders. Instead, they’ll rely on Watson, Kenny Pickett, and veteran Joe Flacco, who signed a one-year deal potentially worth $13 million with incentives.
Instead, the Browns are projected to pick Travis Hunter, the Heisman Trophy winner out of Colorado who was a star at wide receiver and cornerback for the Buffaloes.
NFL Draft Top Picks in the 2025
The Race for the No. 1 Pick: Current Betting Odds for the 1st Overall Pick
Right now, quarterback Cam Ward out of Miami (FL) is the overall consensus pick to go in the first overall pick. The Tennessee Titans currently hold that pick, and sportsbooks have the odds of the Titans taking Ward sit around -20000.
So no, you’re not going to get a whole lot of value for that pick. How about Hunter in that second spot? Current sports betting odds hover around -280 for the Browns to take him at #2.
Which Team Holds the First Pick?
Right now, the Tennessee Titans hold that pick. When they first found out they would have that selection, the team announced that they were open to trading down. Going into free agency, there was the thought that the team would pursue a veteran quarterback instead of trying to move on from Will Levis in the draft.
However, as the top signal-callers found contracts with other teams, it became clear that the plan in Tennessee was to go with Ward. Once the team respectfully cancelled a meeting with Shedeur Sanders’ group, opting against a private workout, the team’s plans became even clearer.
Tennessee Titans
If the Titans decide to trade their pick, it is still likely that Ward will be selected by the team with the first pick. Tennessee needs a quarterback and Ward is the best available. There are several trade projections, including one with the Giants.
The Titans would receive from the Giants the #3 pick in the draft, a third-round pick in 2025, and a first- and third-round pick in 2026. In this scenario, PFF projected the Titans selecting quarterback Jaxson Dart, noted in data analytics for his talent.
NFL Draft Top Picks & Top Contenders for the No. 1 Selection
In addition to the Titans and Giants, there are other teams that could benefit from selecting a true quarterback of the future. Some thought the Browns would try to move up to #1 to select Ward, but the arrival of Flacco indicates they are only looking for a temporary solution until Watson’s contract is up.
New York Giants
The Giants could also trade down, though, as they have Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston lined up at quarterback. Another team that could use a quarterback is the Las Vegas Raiders. With Tom Brady as part of their ownership, I could see the Raiders looking to make a big splash and get up to the first overall pick.
They do have Geno Smith (and a contract extension) on the roster, but he could give Ward a year, or even half a season, of tutoring before Ward takes over the starting job.
After you get past the trifecta of Ward, Hunter and Sanders, the rest of the top ten should go to such premium positions as edge rushers and offensive linemen.
Some have Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty going as high as #5, but the likes of edge rushers Abdul Carter, Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker are all projected to go in the top 10, as ar offensive tackles Armand Membou and Will Campbell.
NFL Draft Prop Bets to Watch
Here are some interesting prop bets on the draft
Jaxson Dart’s draft projection ranges as high as #3, but the over/under for his selection is 21.5, with the Steelers picking at #21 after moving on from Fields and Wilson.
Right now, the Steelers only have Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson signed to deals at quarterback.
The Steelers, led by Mike Tomlin, see through Aaron Rodgers’ deception that convinced the Jets to offer him a lucrative deal. They might prefer drafting Dart later in the second round instead of immediately.
So why isn’t Dart getting more buzz?
Some see him being picked ahead of Shedeur Sanders, but this is more due to Sanders’ drop in the rankings. Dart did not lead Ole Miss to the SEC Final Four and showed a 58% completion rate and three interceptions in four games against top-ranked teams.
In games with a lower power index, Dart had a 59% completion rate and 6.9 yards per dropback. Notably, against Florida, he struggled in the fourth quarter. These performances may hinder his draft stock, with limited Steelers interest following a meeting.
Indianapolis Colts
There’s speculation on whether the Indianapolis Colts will select an O-lineman with their first pick, currently at +300 odds. General manager Chris Ballard tends to favor experienced players with exceptional athletic traits. Notably, in the 2019 draft, none of the twelve first or second-round picks had four years of college experience. Although the Colts are interested in Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, he may be picked before their turn.
The Colts are reportedly interested in Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, though injuries hindered his workouts and he only played three college seasons. They may also need a guard or right tackle, with Braden Smith’s contract expiring soon and a guard position open. Potential candidates include Grey Zabel from North Dakota State (five college years) and Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson (four years), both experienced in both positions.
Big Ten Players as a NFL Draft Top Picks
One more draft prop has to do with the number of players from the Big Ten Conference, who get drafted in the first round. On most books, the over/under is 8.5, and the over pays -180. Remember – UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Washington are in the Big Ten now as well.
Abdul Carter (Penn State) and Mason Graham (Michigan) are said to be locks to join Penn State’s Warren in the top ten. Some other first-round prospects include Colston Loveland, Will Johnson and Kenneth Grant, all of Michigan, and then Josh Conerly and Derrick Harmon of Oregon.
That’s eight already. That doesn’t include such possible first-rounders as Josh Simmons, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, Tyleik Williams, and Donovan Jackson, all of Ohio State, as well as Minnesota’s Aireontae Ersery and UCLA’s Femi Oladejo.
Longshots
That’s a list with 15 names, and they’re all reasonable first-rounders. If you want to add a couple of long shots, let’s consider Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) or JT Tuimoloau (Ohio State). So getting to nine or more Big Ten players in the first round, where 32 teams will pick, is well within the realm of possibility.
Total QBs Drafted in the First Round
At this writing, the line is 6.5, but the “over” is +225 while the under is -300, suggesting that the line could drop down. In addition to Ward, other likely first-round quarterbacks are Sanders, Dart.
Jalen Milroe and Quinn Ewers often appear in the top five quarterback power rankings. However, few mock drafts predict three QBs in the first round, suggesting it’s wise to wait until the total drops to 5.5.
First Non-QB Drafted
Overall, Travis Hunter is listed with a -280 moneyline as the second draft choice. So he’s definitely the smart pick to be the first non-quarterback taken in the draft, unless you see major shifting in the draft order.
Where the Best Betting Value Lies
Smart positional wagers can bring you value. Will the Chicago Bears draft Ashton Jeanty (+130)? Why not? The Bears’ O-line has been revamped, and they need a tailback to take the pressure off Caleb Williams. There’s no one ahead of Jeanty on the Bears’ depth chart who would make him wait for touches.
The Raiders could select a wide receiver first (+300), especially with Tom Brady now under Las Vegas ownership. Their dissatisfaction with the lack of investment in receivers under Belichick suggests they could trade their high pick.
Longshot Bets with Upside
One longshot bet with some upside has the New York Jets going with a quarterback in the first round (+1700). Yes, the Jets signed Justin Fields, but the team is giving him a lot less than they gave Aaron Rodgers.
It would not be surprising at all to see the Jets reach out and grab Shedeur Sanders and get a lot of media attention. However, speaking of fading media hype…
Fading Media Hype
This draft class is seen as strong in terms of starters but not so strong in terms of possible All-Pros.
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders is seeing his media hype fade as scouts start to question his athleticism.
One anonymous NFL quarterbacks coach labeled Sanders “arrogant” and “brash” after a one-on-one interview – an impression that does not square with the interviews Sanders gave to various media outlets during the combine.
It’s hard to imagine sliding past the top 20 at this point, but there are some scouts who have him as a second-round pick on their draft boards.
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NFL Draft Top Picks 2025
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