Jun 20, 2024; Atlanta, GA, USA; Canada defender Alphonso Davies (19) reacts to a missed chance against Argentina during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
- Bottom of Group A after match-week 1, Canada need a win against Peru on Tuesday at the 2024 Copa America
- Peru played Chile to a 0-0 draw in their opener and have only scored one goal in six CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers
- See the Canada vs Peru predictions, odds, and projected lineups for June 25 at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City
Two teams that failed to find the back of the net in their opening matches meet at the 2024 Copa America on Tuesday when Canada (0-0-1) face Peru (0-1-0) at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, KS.
While Peru is ranked considerably higher by FIFA (31st vs 48th), it’s the Canadians who are favored in the Peru vs Canada odds for June 25.
Canada vs Peru Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | +130 | Over 2.5 (+137) |
| Peru | +220 | Under 2.5 (-175) |
| Draw | +230 | N/A |
Canada is listed as +130 chalk with Peru at +220 to win and the draw at +230. The over/under heavily favors under 2.5 goals (-175) with over 2.5 priced at +137.
Odds from bet365 on June 24. Claim bet365 free bets for Copa America 2024.Â
Neither Canada nor Peru is considered a credible threat to lift the trophy. Peru is +5425 in the Copa America odds, slightly ahead of Canada at +7650.
Canada Hasn’t Scored in Three Straight Games
Canada lost 2-0 to defending-champion Argentina in the tournament-opening game on Thursday. After the loss, Canada’s odds to finish top-two in the group – and qualify for the knockout stage – faded to +220. (Peru is +200, while Argentina is prohibitively short at -10000 and Chile is second-favorite at +100.)
While Canada did generate a surprising number of quality chances against Argentina ten shots, four on-target, and 1.00 xGF – they failed to score for the third straight game. That cold spell came on the heels on six straight games with at least one goal. Of course, the quality of competition had a lot to do with it. Each of Canada’s last three games has come against a top-ten team in the World (4-0 at Netherlands, 0-0 at France, 2-0 vs Argentina). The best team they faced in the preceding six was #11 USA.
Peru the Lowest-Scoring Team in CONMEBOL
Peru is also having massive difficulties generating goals recently. The team sits dead-last in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying with a 0-2-4 record and -7 goal differential, scoring just once in the first six matches.
In four friendlies since March, they managed to score seven goals, but those seven came against Nicaragua (2-0), Dominican Republic (4-1), and El Salvador (1-0), who are ranked 130th, 150th, and 80th in the world, respectively. In their fourth match, they played Paraguay to a nil-nil draw.
Against favored Chile, Peru generated just four shots (two on target) and just 0.73 xGF according to flashscore.
If both teams roll with the same lineups from their opening games, here is how the starting 11s will look on Tuesday in Kansas City.
CAN vs PERU Projected Lineups
| Canada | Peru |
|---|---|
| Maxime Crepeau (GK) | Pedro Gallese (GK) |
| Moise Bombito (CB) | Alexander Callens (LB) |
| Derek Cornelius (CB) | Carlos Zambrano (CB) |
| Alistair Johnston (RWB) | Miguel Araujo (RB) |
| Alphonso Davies (LWB) | Piero Cordova (LMF) |
| Tajon Buchanan (RMF) | Wilder Cartagena (CMF) |
| Ismaël Koné (CMF) | Sergio Pena (RMF) |
| Stephen Eustáquio (CMF) | Luis Advincula (LW) |
| Liam Millar (LMF) | Andy Polo (RW) |
| Cyle Larin (STR) | Edison Flores (STR) |
| Jonathan David (STR) | Gianluca Lapadula (STR) |
Canada vs Peru Predictions
Prior to this recent goal-less run, Canada had lived and died as an attacking team. When they topped 2022 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, they did so with an association-best 23 goals for, and they field much the same squad that reached Qatar.
Peru is a very capable defensive squad, but they were lucky not to concede against Chile, giving up more than one prime scoring opportunity. Canada’s goal drought should come to an end on Tuesday. They will press up the field and attack at every opportunity, knowing a win is all but necessary if they hope to progress to the knockout stage.
Canada vs Peru picks:
- Canada to score first goal (-125)
- Under 2.5 (-175)
Sascha Paruk’s Euro 2024/Copa America betting record: 10-4 (+7.12 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly state otherwise.
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.