Working in sports media is just like being a metrologist, if you take out all the math and science you need to exist in the world of weather. Beyond that and the fact that they usually dress better than we do, there is absolutely no difference.
All right, maybe these two professions are not exactly the same but one thing we have in common is our predictions can go horribly wrong and yet we still (fingers crossed) have a job the following day.
I bring this up because in early July I looked at winless Winnipeg, Edmonton and Hamilton and uncorked this doozy:
“So much has gone wrong for all three teams that positive regression will happen and victories are on the way sooner rather than later, but it is Hamilton who I think is the most likely candidate for a Cinderella finish.”
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I would provide you the link to this story, but I think the healing can only begin if we all collectively forget this article exists (editorial note: read the story here; sorry, Matt!) To make amends let’s look at the two teams that have suddenly turned dangerous (Winnipeg) or are in the middle of a potential remarkable comeback (Edmonton).
My story came out on July 4, after yet another single digit loss for the Edmonton Elks, a 24-21 defeat to the BC Lions. Their slow climb back to respectability wouldn’t start for another month and a coaching change from Chris Jones to now interim sideline patroller Jarious Jackson.
THE ELKS FOUND THEIR OFFENCE
Edmonton’s three-game winning streak is courtesy of an offence than has been bludgeoning defences. The trifecta of triumphs has seen Edmonton put up 122 points with just ruthless efficiency.
One touchdown drive sticks out in particular.
Last week against the Tiger-Cats, under seven minutes to go in the second quarter with the Elks leading 14-3. The drive starts with the new guy, Justin Rankin running through one would be tackler, turning up field and finding plenty of daylight thanks to the work of his offensive line and the receivers downfield blocking. The run ends 40 yards later with a straight arm of Stavros Katsantonis. Just a strong play all around.
Then it’s McLeod Bethel-Thompson with a deep shot to Tevin Jones for a 28-yard completion. You want to talk about efficient, this play was the 10th time the physical Jones (six-foot-two, 225 pounds) has been targeted as a member of the Elks and he has caught every pass thrown his way. The next play Rankin would bully his way up the middle for the easy touchdown and the game became a blowout. Over the past three contests Edmonton is averaging just under 450 yards a game and running the ball close to 200 yards a clip no matter who is starting at quarterback or running back.
This winning streak that has put Edmonton within two points of third place does come with the obvious caveat. After a start of the season that was devoid of good fortune Edmonton has been lucky in that they have faced back-up quarterbacks in their wins over Saskatchewan (Shea Patterson), BC (Jake Dolegala) while their victory in Hamilton saw the Tiger-Cats lose Taylor Powell early. This is the point where I suggest Edmonton fans may want to temper their expectations however it is also true the weapons are in place for an Elks run to the playoffs.
WELCOME BACK, ZACH
Now let’s get to the team I was loud wrong about, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. A lacklustre 22-19 loss to the Calgary Stampeders saw Zach Collaros join stars like Dalton Schoen and Kenny Lawler on the injured list. Brady Oliveria wasn’t looking particularly dangerous with the ball in his hand and the pass rush was non-existent.
The conversation centred on the star quarterback sitting at zero touchdown passes and maybe the rest of the league had caught up with the Bombers. Doesn’t that feel like a lifetime ago? After missing Week 5 Collaros is averaging 300 yards a game and has five touchdown passes. Yes, the interception total is higher than what anyone would want but the team now finds itself in a tie for third place and owns the season series against the Lions.
On the injury front, Lawler made his return this past week against BC and Nic Demski’s first 100-yard game does ease the pain of not having Schoen in the lineup.
More importantly for the Bombers their main weapon, Brady Oliveria is again doing what he does best, running over and around people. After the Stampeders’ loss the 2023 rushing leader was averaging “just” 4.3 yards per carry, a respectable number for most running backs but most runners are not Oliveria. In his last six games the reigning MOP winner has 87 carries for 561 yards for a gaudy 6.4 yards per carry.
A DEFENCE REJUVENATED
Finally, there is the defence, which saw the return of defensive end Celestin Haba in Week 11. I’m betting the Lions’ defence was tired of hearing all the Nathan Rourke news and decided they would play the role of Debbie Downer on Sunday night. Remind me to never let Winnipeg defensive coordinator Jordan Younger or defensive end Willie Jefferson oversee my birthday because wow do they know how to ruin a comeback party. For the second time this year they completely shut down the Lions’ offence, terrorizing Rourke to the point where he made a totally unnecessary apology after the Lions’ 20-11 defeat.
The sack statistic is not always the most trustworthy to measure how dangerous a defence is, but it is worth noting after putting up three during their 0-4 start this unit has taken down opposing quarterbacks 13 times in the last six games.
At the start of July, we all wondered how long it would take for Bombers’ head coach Mike O’Shea to get to career win No. 100, just like we all feared Edmonton was heading towards another 4-6 win season. It’s been eight weeks since and the fortunes of these respective clubs now feel so different. I’m wildly curious to see where both teams will be by early October.