HomeCFLCFL Simulation: Bombers favoured to lock up West

CFL Simulation: Bombers favoured to lock up West


TORONTO — It’s rare that a bye week can pass and the team sitting out sees their probability of success go up.

That’s what happened in Week 20 for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who sat idle in their final bye, waiting to determine who will host the Western Final.

The CFL Simulation took the results of the BC Lions’ convincing win over the Montreal Alouettes and increased the Bombers’ odds of their fourth-straight first place finish in the West Division. The Lions’ big win over the Als has the simulation thinking that the Bombers will now head to Montreal this week and win, locking up the West Division in the process.

The simulation is also still very high on the Toronto Argonauts, who picked up their third win in a row as they held off the Ottawa REDBLACKS this past Saturday to earn a home playoff date on Nov. 2 for the Eastern Semi-Final.

While the Als are still favoured to win the Eastern Final, the simulation likes the Argos’ odds in the Grey Cup game more than it does the Als.

This week’s most probable 111th Grey Cup matchup remains a Winnipeg-Montreal rematch, with a 30.70 per cent chance of happening. A Winnipeg-Toronto matchup is the next most likely, at 25.84 per cent.

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Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where your team stands as we head into the final week of the regular season.

*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Team (projected 2024 record) Projection
Montreal (12-5-1) C
Winnipeg (11-7) C
Saskatchewan (10-7-1) C
Toronto (10-8) C
BC (9-9) C
Ottawa (9-8-1) C
Hamilton (7-11) E
Edmonton (7-11) E
Calgary (4-13-1) E

 

ODDS TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME
Team Projection
Montreal C
Winnipeg C
Saskatchewan C
Toronto C
Ottawa E
BC E
Hamilton E
Edmonton E
Calgary E

 

ODDS TO WIN EAST
Team Projection
Montreal C
Ottawa E
Toronto E
Hamilton E

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST
Team Projection
Winnipeg 67.93%
Saskatchewan 32.07%
BC E
Edmonton E
Calgary E

 

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP
Team Projection
Winnipeg 59.58%
Montreal 51.65%
Toronto 43.34%
Saskatchewan 38.31%
Ottawa 5.01%
BC 2.11%
Hamilton E
Edmonton E
Calgary E

 

ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP
Team Projection
Winnipeg 48.81%
Saskatchewan 30.75%
Toronto 11.62%
Montreal 6.79%
BC 1.33%
Ottawa 0.70%
Hamilton E
Edmonton E
Calgary E

 

MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS
Team Projection
Winnipeg-Montreal 30.70%
Winnipeg-Toronto 25.84%
Saskatchewan-Montreal 19.86%
Saskatchewan-Toronto 16.57%
Winnipeg-Ottawa 3.04%
Saskatchewan-Ottawa 1.88%
BC-Montreal 1.09%
BC-Toronto 0.93%
BC-Ottawa 0.09%