TORONTO — Sometimes something will happen in the game of football that makes you wonder.
In their regular season finale on Saturday, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers looked like they were headed to their first Western Semi-Final in six years. Sergio Castillo had missed on a 61-yard field goal attempt, just a smidge out of his comfort zone and the Alouettes had the ball with 1:05 to play, holding a two-point lead.
Then the wind picked up.
An Alouettes’ two-and-out led to a Joseph Zema punt that Mother Nature would only allow to move 21-yards downfield. The Bombers got the ball back with just enough time for Castillo, with that gusting wind at his back, to put a 51-yard field goal through the uprights with zeroes on the clock.
The CFL Simulation was just as impressed as many of us were watching that all-time great finish to the game and it’s only helped the West’s top team in its probability for playoff success.
The Bombers have an incredible 81.65 per cent chance of appearing in the 111th Grey Cup game and a 62.97 per cent chance of winning the Grey Cup on Nov. 17. As we head into the Division Semi-Finals this week, the most likely matchup in the 111th Grey Cup right now would be a replay of Saturday’s game and last year’s championship game. The Bombers and the Als have a 47.82 per cent chance of meeting one more time out on the west coast to slug it out for CFL supremacy.
Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where everyone stands, with the 2024 CFL Playoffs getting underway on Saturday in Saskatchewan and Toronto.
2024 CFL PLAYOFFS
» Matchups Set: Semi-Final Saturday heads to Toronto and Saskatchewan
» 3 stats that could loom large in the Eastern-Semi-Final
» 3 stats that could loom large in the Western Semi-Final
» Buy Semi-Finals Tickets: Eastern Semi-Final | Western Semi-Final
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 81.65% |
| Montreal | 58.54% |
| Toronto | 35.65% |
| Saskatchewan | 12.98% |
| Ottawa | 5.81% |
| BC | 5.37% |
| ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 62.97% |
| Montreal | 12.32% |
| Toronto | 11.75% |
| Saskatchewan | 8.28% |
| BC | 3.43% |
| Ottawa | 1.25% |
| MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 47.82% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 29.02% |
| Saskatchewan-Montreal | 7.56% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 4.81% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 4.69% |
| BC-Montreal | 3.16% |
| BC-Toronto | 1.94% |
| Saskatchewan-Ottawa | 0.73% |
| BC-Ottawa | 0.27% |