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CFP National Championship Odds to Win: The 12-team bracket has been narrowed down to four teams.
The first round, hosted on the college campuses of the higher seeds, saw all four home teams win. Penn State stopped SMU, Notre Dame beat Indiana, Ohio State beat Tennessee, and Texas beat Clemson.
In the quarterfinals, all the teams who had held byes fell – Ohio State thumped Oregon, Texas edged Arizona State in two overtimes, Penn State squelched Boise State’s running game, and Notre Dame smothered the Georgia offense.
Let’s look at the sports betting odds for each of the four semifinalists to win the title, as well as the opening odds for the semifinal matchups and some thoughts about the four teams.
CFP National Championship Odds to Win for the Semifinalists
- Ohio State Buckeyes +113
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish +370
- Texas Longhorns +380
- Penn State Nittany Lions +460
Capital One Orange Bowl
When: Thursday, January 9, 7:30 pm ET, ESPN
Spread/Totals: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1.5) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (O/U 47)
Moneylines: Notre Dame -131 / Penn State -101
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
When: Friday, January 10, 7:30 pm ET, ESPN
Spread/Totals: Ohio State Buckeyes (-6) vs Texas Longhorns (O/U 53.5)
Moneylines: Ohio State -244 / Texas +177
All four of the remaining teams are among the eight programs with at least 900 all-time wins. Ohio State has 976, Notre Dame and Texas have 961, and Penn State has 943. They have combined for 18 national championships since 1936, the start of AP rankings. Notre Dame has won eight, Ohio State five, Texas three, and Penn State two.
Penn State is the only FBS program with multiple tailbacks who have at least 1,000 rushing yards. Kaytron Allen has run for 1,026, and Nicholas Singleton is right behind him at 1,015. Tyler Warren leads all Power 4 tight ends with 98 catches on the year. The Nittany Lions rank fifth in the nation in total defense, permitting 288.8 yards per game. When they meet Notre Dame, they will renew a series that has seen each team win nine times and tie each other once, although the sides haven’t met in 17 seasons.
Notre Dame has nine straight wins in neutral-site contests, which leads all FBS programs. AP First-Team All-American safety Xavier Watts has 13 interceptions since 2023, which also leads the FBS.
The Underdog
Looking at this semifinal showdown, Notre Dame has a 10-game winning streak going against the spread. Penn State has only been an underdog twice (+3.5 against Ohio State and Oregon) and has failed to cover either time. Notre Dame has gotten better in each of head coach Marcus Freeman’s three seasons, moving from 9-4 to 10-3 and, now, 13-1. They ended a 31-year streak of losing in major bowls with their win over Georgia, and they now have four straight wins in the postseason, including their wins over Indiana and Georgia this year.
Penn State’s head coach James Franklin is just 4-19 against Top 10 teams. When they stopped #3 Boise State in the quarterfinals, that was their first victory against a Top 10 team since the 2022 Rose Bowl, when they beat Utah, 35-21. The Nittany Lions got ACC runner-up SMU in the first round, and the Mustangs clearly weren’t ready for the big stage with an undersized O-line. Then they got MWC champions Boise State, and they shut down Heisman Trophy finalist Ashton Jeanty and the rest of the Broncos’ offense. Notre Dame will be their biggest test yet.
The Defense
The Penn State defense led the Big Ten in tackles for loss with 102, and this unit is in the top ten in almost every significant category. Notre Dame picks up 6.2 yards per rushing attempt and is third in the nation in rush EPA. On offense, tight end Tyler Warren has picked up 1,158 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He also shows up in the running game, with four scores on the ground.
Tyler Warren
Notre Dame is more than aware of the lack of production by Penn State’s wide receivers, though. The Nittany Lions win by pounding the ball on the ground and finding Warren in the passing game. The Notre Dame defense ranks fifth in net points per drive, fourth in EPA per play and eighth in success rate. This will be a defensive struggle. For those who are shading Penn State, though, remember that Notre Dame’s first-round win came against an Indiana team that didn’t even make the Big Ten Championship and a Georgia team playing with inexperienced Gunner Stockton at quarterback.
Bert Auburn
Texas kicker Auburn has made 173 straight extra-point picks since 2021. The Longhorns have had 102 scrimmage plays go for 20 or more yards and are the only team in the nation with more than 100. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 26 straight games, FBS’ longest streak. The Longhorns are third in the nation in total defense, permitting just 277.7 yards per game.
3rd Quarter
Ohio State has a +239 scoring differential over the second and third quarters this season, the biggest gap among FBS programs. That makes entering the fourth quarter in cruise control much easier. The Buckeyes’ defense has only permitted four pass plays of at least 40 yards, the lowest number in the FBS. The Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense, permitting just 244.6 yards per game.
Looking at this semifinal showdown, both teams were favorites in each of their games this season, including their playoff matchups. Texas started the season going 5-1 against the spread but has only covered three times in the nine games since then. Ohio State has been a single-digit favorite three times this season and has covered each time.
The Streak
Ohio State hasn’t lost three or more games since 2011, and in the last few years, the realistic goal for the program has been a national championship. During the regular season, the Buckeyes lost to Oregon and Michigan, and there was a lot of fan pressure on head coach Ryan Day despite all of his success, and he has responded by delivering two emphatic wins in the CFP.
The Last Games of Ohio State
The Buckeyes rolled Tennessee at home, 42-17, in the first round, before opening a 34-0 second-quarter lead over the Oregon Ducks and then cruising to a 41-21 win. This is the hottest team in the playoff right now. One key change that Ohio State made after losing to Oregon was shifting Jordan Hancock to single-high safety in a defense that is heavy on Cover 1. That let Caleb Downs move closer to the line of scrimmage. Since then, the Buckeyes have allowed only 12.5 points per game.
Texas Longhorns
Texas has had a bumpier road to the national semifinal, and they’ve lost to Georgia twice this season. They’ve beaten everyone else, though, including a 38-24 win over Clemson in the first round of the playoffs and a 39-31 win over Arizona State in two overtimes. They had a very makeable field goal attempt lined up at the end of regulation against Arizona State after the Sun Devils roared back to tie the game, but it missed badly.
The Longhorns were down to 4th and 13 in the first overtime, already down seven points, but then they scored, made the extra point, scored on the first play of the second overtime, converted the two-point attempt, and then grabbed an interception to seal the deal. They won at Michigan by 19 – the same Michigan team that won at Ohio Stadium to knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship. They routed Oklahoma – the same Oklahoma team that slapped Alabama around. Furthermore, they won at Texas A&M in a renewal of their raucous rivalry. So this is a team ready for any challenge, but their inconsistency against Arizona State in the second half is a major red flag.
The CFP Bracket is nearly full 😍🏆
Which two teams will meet in the National Championship? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/rxR6iiYmby
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) January 3, 2025
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