Chiefs at Bills Lines, Picks & Prediction for Week 11

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When: Sunday, November 17, 2024, 4:25 pm ET
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
TV: CBS
Radio: KFNZ 610 AM Kansas City / WGR 550 AM Buffalo
Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening NFL Game Odds Subject to Change: Buffalo -2 (O/U 46)
 

The Chiefs head to New York with a perfect 9-0 record, but only two of those wins have come by more than seven points. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had them dead to rights before falling in overtime two weeks ago.

They only scored 16 points against the rebuilding Denver Broncos at home last week and needed a blocked field goal at the end of regulation to keep the winning streak going.

The Bills sit at 8-2 with a five-game winning streak that includes a 21-point win in Seattle and, most recently, a 10-point win in Indianapolis.

Which team will prevail on Sunday? Don’t lock in your wagers until you’ve read our prediction.

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Kansas City Chiefs +109

Winning this game gives the Chiefs the inside track to the first-round bye on the AFC side of the playoff bracket. That would give them a three-game lead on Buffalo and a bigger lead on the other conference contenders. Against Denver, they had an unusually poor day running the ball, which had been a strength since they pulled Kareem Hunt off the couch in the early part of the season.

They only got 35 yards out of Hunt on 14 carries. In the red zone, they have done well this season because of their running game inside the 20. However, against Denver, they made it into the red zone four times but only scored one touchdown. The Broncos were able to get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, something that the Bills have also done well this season, but the Chiefs were able to adjust and overcome – just enough – to win on Sunday.

The defense has held 30 consecutive opponents under 28 points, the first team to do so since 2001 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YJq4RDV5y0

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 14, 2024

Chiefs Stats

When Kansas City contends for championships, it’s usually because their defense is at least as good as their high-octane offense. They are third in the NFL against the run (83.2 yards permitted per game), and they are in the top three in blitz rate as well. They only allow 17.9 points per game, which has them in a tie for fifth-best scoring defense. Their defense also does a good job of disguising pressure, so that opposing offenses can’t readily tell how many players will be coming for the quarterback. In the second half, Kansas City has a +36 scoring margin for the season, which ranks fifth in the NFL.

In the fourth quarter, though, they rise to fourth best with a +32 scoring margin. While the Bills have a +77 margin in the second half, that differential for the Chiefs – as well as the postseason scoring drives that Kansas City has made against Buffalo in those playoff losses – have to weigh on the minds of every player in the Buffalo locker room.

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Buffalo Bills -133

The Buffalo Bills started out the scene with a lot more precision than they have shown lately. They came out of Indy with a 30-20 win despite a sloppy performance on both sides of the ball. The defense had four takeaways but could have had twice as many. On offense, there were too many miscommunications in the passing game, and receivers dropped pass after pass. Injuries have made life tough in the receiving group, and Keon Coleman (wrist) could miss Sunday’s game.

The Offensive

The offense needs to rely more on the running game as James Cook averaged 4.9 yards per carry in the first half against the Colts but only saw the ball eight times. Passing on first down left the Bills in too many second- and third-and-long situations. Allen was just 4 of 10 for 25 yards with a pair of picks when throwing the ball on first down.

We’re live with @JoshAllenQB as he takes questions from the media.#KCvsBUF | #BillsMafia https://t.co/5E39qkkDb5

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 13, 2024

One reason to suspect that the Chiefs are ready for a loss is their dominant play on third and fourth downs after struggling on first and second downs. They rank 18th in the NFL in EPA/play on first and second down – and lead the league on third and fourth down. Over the course of a season, these numbers tend to move toward one another, so the Chiefs will either improve on first and second down, as they have done in previous championship years, or their numbers on the late downs will regress.

They convert on 54.5% of their third- and fourth-down chances – including 8 of 8 on fourth down. Their special teams did fail on a fake punt, but their offense has made good on fourth-down chances. When tailback Isiah Pacheco returns, the team should do better on first and second downs, but he won’t be back this week. Will the Bills’ defense start making these down numbers match?

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NFL Game Odds: Chiefs at Bills Final Score and Prediction in Week 11

The Buffalo defense did a lot of the work in the win over Indianapolis, with three interceptions and a fumble recovery. They also limited the Colts to just 4 of 11 on third downs, and so they were able to overcome a couple of turnovers on offense. Kansas City is the team with the perfect record, and they did just hold Denver to only 260 yards of total offense while gaining 300 on their own (243 through the air) and picking up 19 first downs.

I expect this to be a great matchup but not a track meet, as both defenses will make things tough for the offenses, at least until the fourth quarter. The Bills have the motivation and home field advantage, although Josh Allen did make the point that this game means much less than a playoff showdown will.

I see the Bills winning, 30-27.

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How the divisions stand heading into Week 11 pic.twitter.com/Luty5Di8wG

— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2024

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