After Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry (+750) won the Zurich Classic, the golf world did not talk about how they came back to defeat Martin Trainer and Chad Ramey in a playoff. But how McIlroy and Lowry sang karaoke, downing beers, and celebrated their win.
Alternate-format golf is an excellent way to break up the monotony of a long golf season. Now that Zurich is over, we turn to the CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.
Once again, Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week as he is presumably taking some time off ahead of next week’s Wells Fargo Championship. That means Jordan Spieth (+1600) has the honor of being the tournament favorite this week.
Given Spieth’s rollercoaster season, it makes sense why many are passing on the tournament favorite and looking at larger prices in the outright market.
TPC Craig Ranch isn’t particularly difficult; the 7,414-yard par 71 course tends to welcome golfers who go low. With wide fairways and three very easy par 5s, this tournament is somewhat of a birdie fest.
Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- SG: Putting
- SG: Par 5
- Birdie or Better Gained
Best Bets for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Stephan Jaeger to Win +3300 +0.5 Units
The Houston Open winner might be the hottest golfer in the field and arguably the one playing with the most confidence. While drawing parallels between this field and a Korn Ferry Tour field, it’s important to note that Jaeger absolutely dominated those guys!
When selecting outright selections for this event, I was trying to think of golfers who are great ball strikers and can score in birdie fests. Jaeger is fifth in my primary model in large part due to how well he scores on par 5s, his length of the tee, and his ability to go low.
His win at the Houston Open was sandwiched between two missed cuts, forgivable missed cuts if you ask me. Missing the cut at The Players and then at the Masters, the tournament after your first PGA Tour win is forgivable.
I love how he bounced back at the RBC Heritage with a top-20 finish. Although his iron play wasn’t stellar at that event, he was able to grind through tough putting and less-than-ideal ball striking for a solid finish.
Jaeger’s breakthrough was bound to happen sooner than later. I believe he can win multiple times a season, and in a field of this caliber, his odds should probably be a bit shorter.
Other Bets to Win: Alex Noren +2800 0.5un, Tom Hoge +3500 0.5un, Keith Mitchell +4100 0.5un, Peter Kuest +10000 0.15un
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Tom Hoge Top-20 +180
Whenever the Tour is at a course that massively rewards strong iron play, Hoge becomes one of the first names I look at. Over the last 36 rounds, Hoge is by far they best iron player in the field. He’s first in SG: App by a wide margin.
There’s also this misconception that Hoge doesn’t putt well. Well, he’s been a massive gainer on the greens this season. He’s also gained strokes putting in nine of his last 10 events.
He’s consistently been a strong placement bet respecter. Excluding the team event, he’s finished inside the top 20 in six of his last eight events.
There’s no chance I won’t be betting on the TCU product to win this event either.
Other Placement Bets: Alex Noren Top 20 +150, Jaeger Top 20 +165, Adam Scott 34th or Better (-115)