College Football Playoff Quarterfinals, Mayo Bowl

OK, College Football Playoff. What’ve you got for us this week?

The first round of games were duds, with the home team in all four games blowing out their lower-seeded opponents, but now the quarterfinals shift back to neutral fields and traditional big bowl game settings.

You know the ones: The Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Sugar Bowl and their various sponsors.

We’ve also got some of the more fun non-playoff matchups of the postseason with Alabama-Michigan and the Duke’s Mayo Bowl between Minnesota and Virginia Tech.

Here’s an updated look at our standings against the spread as we hit the home stretch. Tail (or fade) responsibly!

All odds via BetMGM

ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 11 Alabama vs. Michigan, Tuesday, Noon ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Alabama -13.5

Blake Schuster: Michigan +12.5

Only one team wants to be here and it’s the one getting nearly two touchdowns.

Mitchell Northam: Michigan +12.5

One of these teams got blown out by Oklahoma. The other one beat Ohio State on the road.

Christian D’Andrea: Michigan +12.5

Michelle Martinelli: Alabama -12.5

If Michigan was at full strength, I could have convinced myself that the Wolverines might cover. But without running back Donovan Edwards, tight end Colston Loveland and multiple defensive lineman while projected first-round NFL Draft pick Jalen Milroe is still expected to play for the Tide, this just-OK Alabama team should be able to cover.

Tyler Nettuno: Michigan +12.5

I think the Tide are probably 13 points better than the Wolverines, but Michigan enters this one with a lot of momentum on and off the field, while Alabama is likely still stewing about its perceived CFP snub.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Louisville vs. Washington, Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET on CBS

Opening Line: Louisville -4.5

Blake Schuster: Louisville -2.5

Washington losing a defensive coordinator right before this one after weeks of distraction. Woof.

Mitchell Northam: Louisville -2.5

Going to assume that Washington’s defensive coordinator hasn’t been locked in on preparation given the noise around him joining his dad in Chapel Hill.

Christian D’Andrea: Louisville -2.5

Michelle Martinelli: Louisville -2.5

The Cardinals had some low moments this season but were competitive in most of their losses, while Washington really didn’t do much of anything. A three-point win seems doable for the favorites.

Tyler Nettuno: Louisville -2.5

The Cardinals disappointed in 2024 at times, but they were still a lot more consistent than a Washington team that struggled in Year 1 of the Jedd Fisch era.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: No. 15 South Carolina vs. No. 20 Illinois, Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET on ABC

Opening Line: South Carolina -10.5

Blake Schuster: South Carolina -9.5

LaNorris Sellers’ 2025 Heisman Campaign starts now.

Mitchell Northam: South Carolina -9.5

Perhaps the best non-CFP bowl games. I’ll give South Carolina the edge as one of the hottest teams in college football — they’ve won six in a row — and because they have an absolutely electric quarterback in LaNorris Sellers.

Christian D’Andrea: Illinois +9.5

Michelle Martinelli: South Carolina -9.5

Illinois had a great season that it should be proud of, and I want to pick it. But the Gamecocks had one of the hottest Novembers with wins over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson. Hate how big the spread is, but here’s hoping South Carolina takes its playoff-snub rage out in its bowl.

Tyler Nettuno: South Carolina -9.5

Illinois had a quietly very impressive season, but the Gamecocks ended the year as one of the hottest teams in the nation. I expect that trend to continue here.

Kinder’s Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. LSU, Tuesday, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: LSU -2.5

Blake Schuster: Baylor -2.5

Dave Aranda pulled a Neal Brown this season, going from the coach most likely to get fired in the Big 12 to the one who deserves coach of the year votes. Of course, we all saw how that turned out for Neal Brown this year.

Mitchell Northam: Baylor -2.5

LSU doesn’t want to be in this game.

Christian D’Andrea: Baylor -2.5

Michelle Martinelli: LSU +2.5

Baylor definitely turned its season around after a rocky 2-4 start, but I’ve underestimated LSU too many times this season to pick against the Tigers, even with a couple holes in their roster.

Tyler Nettuno: LSU -2.5

The Tigers will be down a few starters, but they will have Garrett Nussmeier, and that will probably be enough against a Baylor team that improved this year but still has some issues.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State, Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Penn State -9.5

Blake Schuster: Penn State -10.5

This is such a brutal matchup for Boise State after an incredible season. That’s the playoff for ya.

Mitchell Northam: Penn State -10.5

If there’s a unit capable of bottling up Ashton Jeanty, it’s probably this Penn State defense.

Christian D’Andrea: Boise State +10.5

Michelle Martinelli: Boise State +10.5

The CFP quarterfinals matchup I’m least sure of, largely for three reasons: Penn State has had several slow offensive starts this season, the Broncos take care of the ball and, of course, Ashton Jeanty. But Boise State hasn’t faced a defense this tough all season. I say the Nittany Lions win, but not by 11.

Tyler Nettuno: Penn State -10.5

Barring an absolute banger of a game from Ashton Jeanty, I don’t see how Boise stays in this one. Against the Nittany Lions defensive front, that seems like a major ask.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State, Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Texas -13.5

Blake Schuster: Texas -13.5

I hate this number but can’t turn down a Texas offense that can score as fast as anyone.

Mitchell Northam: Arizona State +13.5

Just feels like too many points for a Texas team I don’t completely trust yet.

Christian D’Andrea: Arizona State +13.5

Michelle Martinelli: Texas -13.5

No disrespect to Arizona State because the Sun Devils and Cam Skattebo are so fun and earned their playoff berth. But Texas’ defense is elite and will keep Arizona State from keeping up in scoring — though if the Longhorns stay a little turnover happy, this will be wrong in a big way.

Tyler Nettuno: Texas -13.5

I still have my questions about Texas, but I don’t see it here for the Sun Devils. Rushing success with Cam Skattebo will be hard to come by, and I don’t think Arizona State can have the same kind of passing success that kept Clemson nominally in the game in Round 1.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl: No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State, Wednesday, 5 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Ohio State -1

Blake Schuster: Oregon +2.5

I cannot believe the undefeated No. 1 Ducks are getting points at the Rose Bowl.

Mitchell Northam: Oregon +2.5

C’mon guys. We’ve seen this movie before.

Christian D’Andrea: Oregon +2.5

Michelle Martinelli: Ohio State -2.5

This pick has less to do with how dominant the Buckeyes looked against Tennessee and more about being a big believer that when two fairly equal teams play twice in the same season, the loser of the first game wins the rematch. Oregon has had an exceptional season, but I have a feeling Ohio State will break the Ducks’ undefeated streak.

Tyler Nettuno: Ohio State -2.5

I already felt good about the Buckeyes in the CFP before their blowout win over Tennessee. I’ll take them in a rematch of a game they lost by one point on the road all the way back in October.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame, Wednesday, 8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Georgia -1.5

Blake Schuster: Notre Dame +1.5

If it’s any consolation, I’d have taken this line even if Carson Beck were healthy.

Mitchell Northam: Notre Dame +1.5

The Irish are not the same team that lost to NIU in September. They’ve got a really good defense and now they’re facing a Georgia team with a backup quarterback.

Christian D’Andrea: Georgia -1.5

Michelle Martinelli: Notre Dame +2.5

With or without Carson Beck, I was picking the Fighting Irish to win. They’ve been improving throughout the season, their defense is like a brick wall and that Northern Illinois loss feels like it was a different team.

Tyler Nettuno: Notre Dame +1.5

I simply don’t trust this Georgia team, given the quarterback situation. Notre Dame is the much more complete team right now, and while I may come to regret picking against Kirby Smart in the CFP, that’s eactly what I’m going to do.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: No. 14 Ole Miss vs. Duke, Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Ole Miss -12.5

Blake Schuster: Duke +14.5

Lane Kiffin is gonna end up with more losses in the postseason than the regular season.

Mitchell Northam: Duke +14.5

This ain’t where Ole Miss wanted to be. Meanwhile, I trust that Manny Diaz will have his guys motivated to play well against an SEC team for potentially a 10th win this season for the Blue Devils.

Christian D’Andrea: Ole Miss -14.5

Michelle Martinelli: Duke +14.5

I don’t trust Duke, but I trust this underachieving Ole Miss team less. Lane Kiffin’s squad *should* win, but I won’t be surprised if the Blue Devils cover against this giant spread.

Tyler Nettuno: Duke +14.5

This spread is simply way too big against an Ole Miss team that doesn’t want to be here. The Blue Devils have some momentum after a 9-3 season and some offseason success, and that should be enough to at least cover here.

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State, Friday, 4 p.m. on ESPN

Opening Line: Texas State -7.5

Blake Schuster: Texas State -13.5

I would’ve taken North Texas if Chandler Morris hadn’t just transferred to Virginia.

Mitchell Northam: Texas State -13.5

Sure.

Christian D’Andrea: North Texas +13.5

Michelle Martinelli: Texas State -13.5

Big spread, but I’m having a hard time picking the Mean Green to cover with a bottom-10 defense.

Tyler Nettuno: North Texas +13.5

The Mean Green can at least put points on the board, and that’s enough for me to take them to cover here in the First Responder Bowl.

Duke’s Mayor Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Opening Line: Minnesota -1.5

Blake Schuster: Minnesota -7.5

Row the mayo.

Mitchell Northam: Minnesota -7.5

PJ Fleck strikes me as a guy who would enjoy a mayo bath more than Brent Pry.

Christian D’Andrea: Minnesota -7.5

Michelle Martinelli: Virginia Tech +7.5

We’ll get to see PJ Fleck covered in mayo after this one, but this game feels pretty evenly matched between two two-faced and unpredictable teams.

Tyler Nettuno: Minnesota -7.5

This is a big spread, but the Gophers have simply been much more trustworthy in what has been a quiet but very nice season for coach PJ Fleck.

Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty, Saturday, 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2

Opening Line: Liberty -3.5

Blake Schuster: Liberty +2

Jamey Chadwell can coach and that’s all I need to know about this one.

Mitchell Northam: Liberty +2

I’ll give the advantage to Chadwell.

Christian D’Andrea: Buffalo -2

Michelle Martinelli: Liberty +2

The Bulls are on a four-game win streak, while the Flames have won three of their last six games. But Liberty feels like the more complete team here.

Tyler Nettuno: Liberty +2

As disappointing as the Flames have been this year, they’re still much more talented than Buffalo. I’m not really sure why they’re underdogs in this spot.