The majority of the National League is tightly bunched in the middle of the standings. The defending pennant winners are right among that group, carrying a 41-43 record that has them two and a half games back of the Cardinals for the final wild-card spot. The Mets are a half-game ahead of Arizona as the NL’s top non-playoff team, while another five clubs sit fewer than three games behind them.
As with most of those borderline contenders, Arizona’s deadline approach is going to be heavily determined by how they play over the next four weeks. General manager Mike Hazen made that clear in a chat with reporters this afternoon, saying he’s hopeful that the team puts itself in a position to add before July 30.
“My desire is for us to be in a position to buy at the deadline and improve this team to push to the playoffs,” Hazen said (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). “It’s obviously been a struggle here for the first half of the season. We haven’t played consistent enough.”
The GM qualified that some of that underperformance is attributable to injuries (especially on the pitching staff), but he also noted that the lineup hasn’t been as consistent as he believes it to be capable of.
The offense has been solid but not overwhelming. The D-Backs rank ninth in the majors in scoring. They’re hitting .250/.321/.398 as a team. Arizona is in the back half of the top 10 in both batting average and on-base percentage and sits 14th in slugging. Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have driven most of that offense. Jake McCarthy and Randal Grichuk have been solid, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has rebounded from a rough May with an excellent performance over the past few weeks.
That said, it’s easy to understand why Hazen feels there’s untapped upside. Corbin Carroll picked things up in June after a terrible first couple of months, but he still hasn’t played to the massive potential he showed as a rookie. Arizona was without shortstop Geraldo Perdomo for a few weeks, pressing Kevin Newman into action there. Third baseman Eugenio Suárez hasn’t played up to expectations after coming over from the Mariners in an offseason trade.
A good but not great performance from the lineup hasn’t been enough to overcome a rotation that has the fourth-worst ERA in the majors. That’s largely because the group hasn’t been at full strength. Eduardo Rodriguez still hasn’t made his team debut after sustaining a Spring Training lat strain. Zac Gallen missed a month because of a hamstring strain before returning over the weekend. Merrill Kelly will be out into August thanks to a mid-April shoulder injury.
Any team would have a hard time weathering the loss of arguably its three best starting pitchers. The problems can’t be entirely chalked up to injury though. Signing Jordan Montgomery just before Opening Day hasn’t worked out, as the southpaw has allowed 6.03 earned runs per nine across 13 starts. Arizona’s lack of upper minors rotation depth has again been exposed with Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi and Tommy Henry all getting hit hard. Presumptive fourth starter Brandon Pfaadt has been the only consistent presence, working to a 4.28 ERA over a team-leading 103 innings.
The D-Backs invested heavily over the offseason on the heels of their surprising run to the World Series. They brought back Gurriel and added Rodriguez, Montgomery and Pederson. They’d clearly prefer to make another playoff push rather than move veteran pieces. Should they remain within a team or two of the final postseason spot, they’d be positioned to do that. Things would become more questionable if the Snakes stumble this month and are jumped by a few of the teams that are narrowly behind them at the moment.
“It’s going to be where are we down relative to how many teams are above us,” Hazen said of deciding whether to buy or sell. “Like last year, as we slipped down around the deadline, I think we got to like two or three out and we had two or three teams above us. That’s a dynamic you can overcome. If you start getting too far down and buried behind and needing three, four or five teams to lose and you win, that’s not a good spot to be in. I think if we have a glimmer of where it’s at, my gut will be to continue to add to this team.”
If they’re in a position to buy, strengthening the pitching staff would probably be the priority for a second straight summer. The D-Backs are hopeful of Rodriguez and Kelly contributing in the second half, though both pitchers will be coming off extended absences. Even if they’re each healthy and join Gallen and Pfaadt in the rotation, the front office could look for an upgrade over Montgomery. The D-Backs came up empty in their search for rotation help at last year’s deadline. Without a reliable fourth starter during their playoff run, Hazen conceded in October that he regretted not landing rotation help.
The front office did pull off one major pitching acquisition at the ’23 deadline, landing Paul Sewald to lock down the ninth inning. Sewald is again pitching well. Like virtually every contender, Arizona could try to deepen the middle relief group in front of their veteran closer and the setup trio of Justin Martinez, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson. Bringing in another left-hander to nudge Joe Mantiply down the leverage hierarchy would be ideal.