There’s been some media speculation over the last few days that the Carolina Hurricanes could consider trading Mikko Rantanen if he isn’t willing to extend prior to the trade deadline. That might sound far-fetched given what the Canes just gave up acquiring Rantanen and since he significantly improves their chances of winning the Cup this year. But I think it’s plausible.
It’s certainly the type of contingency that a group that includes GM Eric Tulsky and advisor Eric Joyce, my old AGM partner in Florida Panthers. Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon would have at least talked about it in some detail before committing to the Necas/Rantanen trade.
The interesting question to me is this: How much should Rantanen value signing with Carolina and securing an 8th contract year instead of becoming a free agent?
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the answer to that question is: “not as much as you might think”.
Can Rantanen only get 8 years in Carolina?
While it’s true that only Carolina can offer Rantanen an 8th year if he’s on their reserve list prior to the trade deadline, Rantanen shouldn’t be too focused on that for two main reasons.
First, if push comes to shove and the sides aren’t close as July 1 nears, Carolina will be extremely incentivized to trade his rights to another club in exchange for value. As we’ve seen with Matt Tkachuk (and his agent Craig Oster at Newport, who orchestrated things perfectly), one way Carolina could recoup some value in that scenario would be to agree to a sign-and-trade with Rantanen’s preferred club, which gives him an 8-year deal elsewhere.
The second reason is that, at age 28 and with the leverage that comes with being one of the league’s best players, Rantanen should be optimizing for 9 high value contract years this offseason, rather than 8. If we assume Rantanen plays at or near his historic form over the remainder of this season, it’s possible to assume a team would be willing to offer him a one-year contract in July at or near the CBA maximum for the 2025-26 league year, which is just over $19 million.
Then, as early as after the trade deadline in 2026, that same team could sign Rantanen to an 8-year extension at a more manageable cap-hit (but not too manageable – that will depend on what Mitch Marner signs for in July). In a 1+8 scenario, the signing club would benefit from the lower long-term cap hit, and Rantanen wins with 9 years of high salary instead of 8, leveraging his peak earning power all the way through the end of his age 37 season instead of 36.
While it’s true the 8-year extension cannot be a condition of the 1-year deal or documented, practically speaking the parties could easily come to an unspoken understanding about their intent, with a plan to formalize negotiations in early 2026. Things like that frequently happen in the NHL.
If you’re a team like the Chicago Blackhawks (or perhaps a surprise other team — we’ll get to that later) with more than enough cap space to absorb the $19M one-year hit, this structure is a slam dunk. I could see Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson jumping at this opportunity, especially since it would also increase his chances of persuading Connor Bedard to commit to a long-term second contract, which the parties can sign this summer.
Structurally, Rantanen could engineer a 1+8 combo that pays him upwards of $35M in actual cash by July 1, 2026. This happens by securing a large signing bonus at the start of the 8-year extension on the heels of the massive one year deal for 25-26.
There’s obviously some real risk here for Rantanen – a major injury, an extended fall-off in play, or another sort of negative event could adversely impact or even derail the extension – but insurance can mitigate that to some extent if he wants to pursue the extra cash.
I think a potential blocker here is that some agents might be hesitant to support this high risk negotiating approach — doing so risks the agent losing upwards of $3M in commissions (which unlike Rantanen, they can’t insure against as effectively) in exchange for pursuing an extra $350K or so in commissions from the extra contract year.
Of course, if he likes living in Raleigh and playing for the Canes, Rantanen may not want to delay signing there. He’ll want to make sure he can secure himself as much as their cap space as possible before they turn their focus to other internal and external targets or, perhaps, to moving him.
Prediction
In the NHL, the most conservative scenario is often the likeliest one, but let’s optimize for fun here:
Carolina keeps Rantanen through the deadline, the Canes win the Cup, Rantanen wins the Conn Smythe, and then he pulls a Kawhi Leonard and leaves in a sign-and-trade.
It’s hard to think of a better fit for a new team potentially named the Mammoth than a franchise forward nicknamed Moose. And Utah‘s Ryan Smith is the type of bold operator, in both business (he recently sold the company he founded for $8 billion) and sports, that I can see buying into a proposal like what I’ve laid out. Utah has the cap space and elite young forwards like Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther (not to mention Clayton Keller) that should be able to entice Rantanen to give the Mammoth (or HC, or Outlaws) a serious look.
And while it’s not a Shaun Michaels—Marty Jannetty level heel turn, one hopes Rantanen would appreciate the narrative possibilities of returning to familiar mountain terrain and Colorado’s division and reminding the Avalanche a few times a season what they chose to trade away. **
** I don’t think that’s the likely scenario. He’ll probably extend in Carolina by March for less than most expect (something like 8 years/100M with deferred compensation to lower the cap hit, and rights to TopGolf Helsinki).
Explore More: Rantanen’s Contract: Insights from Carolina’s Former Capologist