Nov 25, 2022; Al Khor, Qatar; England forward Harry Kane (9) acknowledges fans after a group stage match against the United States of America during the 2022 World Cup at Al Bayt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
- England only need a point against Slovenia to guarantee a top-two finish in Group C
- Slovenia need at least a point to have a chance to qualify for the knockout stage and could still top the group with a win
- See the England vs Slovenia predictions, odds, and projected lineups for June 25 in Köln
England (1-1-0, 4 points) haven’t exactly dazzled in their first two matches at Euro 2024 but only need a point against Slovenia (0-2-0, 2 points) to guarantee a top-two finish in Group C and, unless Denmark beats Serbia by multiple goals, a draw is almost certainly enough to top the group. (England is well ahead of Denmark on disciplinary points.)
England and Slovenia meet at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday at RheinEnergieStadion in Köln, Germany, and the odds heavily favor the Three Lions, not just getting their point, but closing the group stage in style. England is listed at -340 to win at both FanDuel and DraftKings, with the draw at +440 and a Slovenian upset at +1000.
England vs Slovenia Predictions
- Under 2.5 goals (+100) at FanDuel
- Double-chance Slovenia or draw (+265) at DraftKings
England are playing their trademark defensive style under Gareth Southgate at the 2024 Euro, and to relatively positive effect. Their opportunistic attack grabbed the lead within the first 20 minutes against both Serbia and Denmark. But where their stifling defense kept Serbia off the board in a 1-0 win, the Danes answered back just 16 minutes later en route to a 1-1 draw in which England were slightly outplayed for the final hour.
Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane have England’s only goals so far in the tournament.
The Slovenians have been nothing short of solid in their first two games, 1-1 draws with Denmark and Serbia. Against the latter on Thursday, the Slovenians came out pressing the attack and looked the better side for the majority of a nil-nil first half – at least the side that was more likely to score.
While Serbia picked up the pace in the second half, Slovenia took a well-earned lead in the 69th minute on an unlikely tally by defender Žan Karničnik before Serbia equalised with the last kick of the game five minutes into stoppage time.
The three-way moneyline price on an England win (-340) is too short based on what we’ve seen from the teams so far in the tournament. England have considerably more talent but Slovenia were full value for their two draws. And those weren’t anomalous performances from the 57th-ranked team in the world. Slovenia actually finished tied at the top of Group H in qualifying alongside Denmark with 22 points in ten games, and boasted a group-best +11 goal differential.
RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Šeško is one of the most-capable goalscorers in this tournament and Slovenia’s backline is extremely disciplined under the guidance of Matjaž Kek. On top of that, Atlético Madrid keeper Jab Oblak is among the top-tier goalies in the world.
On balance, I expect another low-scoring game from England and another hard-fought point from the Slovenians.
Sascha Paruk’s Euro 2024/Copa America betting record: 10-4 (+7.12 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly state otherwise.
England vs Slovenia Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| England | -340 | Over 2.5 (-120) |
| Slovenia | +1000 | Under 2.5 (-100) |
| Draw | +440 | N/A |
Odds as of 10:30 am ET, June 25.
England is a short favorite across the board but the longest odds are currently at BetMGM where they are priced at -323. The best odds on a Slovenia victory are also at BetMGM (+1050) where the draw is only +400.
The best under odds are currently at FanDuel (even money) while the longest price available on over 2.5 goals is -110 at bet365.
England vs Slovenia Projected Lineups
| England | Slovenia |
|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford (GK) | Jan Oblak (GK) |
| Kieran Trippier (LB) | Erik Janža (LB) |
| Marc Guehi (CB) | Jaka Bijol (CB) |
| John Stones (CB) | Vanja Drkušić (CB) |
| Kyle Walker (RB) | Žan Karničnik (RB) |
| Gallagher (RMF) | Jan Mlakar (LMF) |
| Declan Rice (LMF) | Timi Max Elšnik (CMF) |
| Phil Foden (RW) | Adam Gnezda Čerin (CMF) |
| Bukayo Saka (LW) | Petar Stojanović (RMF) |
| Jude Bellingham (SS) | Benjamin Šeško (STR) |
| Harry Kane (STR) | Andraž Šporar (STR) |
Many expect Southgate to go back to his opening-game lineup with Conor Gallagher in place of Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield, but the lineup should otherwise look the same as it did against the Danes.
Left back Luke Shaw remains the only injury on the England side and, while he’s back training with the team, he won’t be in the squad on Tuesday.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.