Aaron Rogan’s tips for the two final games in Group B include a high-scoring game in Dusseldorf
The final round of group games at Euro 2024 continues on Monday with the last two fixtures in Group B. Spain’s two wins from two games have already secured them top spot, but the other three sides are still scrambling to qualify.
Albania’s late equaliser against Croatia means that the teams from second to fourth know a win in their final match should be enough to send them into the last 16. With Spain in a position to rest their biggest stars, that leaves us with two intriguing games on Monday night.
Let’s take a look at both Group B matches and pick out the best value bet for each game.
Monday’s Euro 2024 Best Bets
Over 2.5 goals in Albania vs Spain
5/6
Draw in Croatia vs Italy
11/5
Rodri’s absence to hurt Spain
Spain head into their final group game three points clear of second-placed Italy and they also hold the head-to-head advantage, guaranteeing them first place. With no reason to stretch themselves, Luis de la Fuente should shuffle his pack for this clash in Dusseldorf.
The Spain boss has already been forced into one change, with Rodri suspended after picking up bookings in his first two games of the tournament. The Manchester City midfielder has been something of a lucky charm for both club and country in recent years, while his positional sense offers excellent defensive cover at the base of the Spanish midfield.
Rodri is the most difficult player in the team to replace, so his card-happy start to the tournament is not ideal. For the clash with Albania, his absence and the likely changes De la Fuente makes could encourage the underdogs to try their luck going forward more than they would have against a full-strength side.
Spain showed their depth against both Croatia and Italy, so their own threat in attack shouldn’t be hugely reduced by the changes. However, they meet an Albanian side who have taken the lead in both their games in Germany. With this being a must-win game for Sylvinho’s side, they should have a positive approach to the game.
There have been over 2.5 goals in both of Albania’s games so far in Germany, so take a decent price on another entertaining game involving them.
Italy can get over the line
One thing which could dent the final-night excitement is the fact that Italy look assured of progressing if they can secure even one point. A draw takes them to four points, a tally that could then only be matched by Albania with a win over Spain.
Not only has four points always been enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed sides, but Italy already have the head-to-head advantage over Albania. That should encourage Italy head coach Luciano Spalletti given how toothless his team looked against Spain.
Croatia have underwhelmed so far at the Euros, losing 3-0 to Spain before their 2-2 draw with Albania. That has left them firmly in must-win territory, but they’re really lacking a cutting edge going forward.
Neither of these sides has been convincing in attack and some Italian tendencies of old could creep in given Italy’s position heading into this clash. A draw looks good value, while there’s also some appeal in backing a goalless game.
Visit Betway’s Euro 2024 betting page.