xbet App
Download App
Sunday Night Football Picks | The Atlanta Falcons signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal for $180 million, including a $50 million signing bonus and a no-trade clause.
They also drafted quarterback Michael Penix Jr early in the first round from the University of Washington.
Now, as we enter Week 17 of the 2024 season, we see that this strategy paid off. Cousins’ 16 interceptions lead the league, and he has also fumbled the ball a dozen times, which ties him with Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield for that dubious honor.
Penix led the Falcons to a big win over the New York Giants in his first start, and now all the Falcons have to do is win out against Washington and then Carolina in Week 18 to take the NFC South and the fourth seed on the NFC side of the playoff bracket.
Their Week 17 test is a tough one, though, as they visit the Washington Commanders, fresh off a shocking comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
Sitting at 10-5, the Commanders just need one win in their last two games (they finish with Dallas in Week 18) to get a playoff spot.
The Commanders lost at home to Dallas earlier this season. Which team will come out of Northwest Stadium with the win? Read on to get our sports betting prediction.
Â
Sunday Night Football Picks: Falcons at Commanders – Week 17 NFL 2024/25 Season
NFL Spreads and Totals: -4 (O/U 47.5)
Moneylines: Atlanta +162 / Washington -202
When: Sunday, December 29, 2024, 8:20 pm ET
Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Peacock
Â
Atlanta Falcons Analysis
Penix became just the second Atlanta quarterback to lead his team to a double-digit victory in his first NFL start. Who was the first? Matt Ryan, back in 2008, and Ryan would go on to become the greatest Atlanta quarterback ever. Penix ended up going 18 of 27 for 202 yards and an interception that clanked off his tight end and ended up in the hands of the defense. It’s worth noting that this win came against a 2-13 New York Giants team, but the offense looked rejuvenated against a Giants team that does play physical defense.
Sunday night threads pic.twitter.com/M1Hh2NpA2U
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 26, 2024
The Pick-Six
The Atlanta defense paid off for those fantasy team owners brave enough to start that unit, as Jessie Bates III and Matthew Judon each produced a pick-six, the first time the Falcons had two of those in the same game in 41 years. That was Judon’s first career touchdown, and Bates now has four picks this year. The Falcons built a lead as large as 34-7 in the fourth quarter, their largest lead in any game in four years.
The Falcons have generated 75 quarterback pressures over the last month, which ranks near the top of the NFL over that time frame. While Jayden Daniels is one of the more mobile quarterbacks, if the Falcons can create enough pressure, they could force him to turn the ball over. This recovery on both sides of the ball should give the team all kinds of confidence as they head to Washington.
Â
Washington Commanders Analysis
Michael Penix isn’t the only rookie quarterback in this game – on the other side of the field, the Commanders have Jayden Daniels, the rookie out of LSU who is firmly in command of the Offensive Rookie of the Year trophy. He has 22 touchdown passes on the season – including five last week and nine over his last three games. He also ran for 82 yards in the win over Philadelphia.
The Turnovers
It’s true that the Commanders also had five turnovers, but Daniels just kept saving the day, especially with his 10-yard touchdown pass to seal the win with just six seconds left. The defense also played a huge role in the win, as the Commanders bottled up Philadelphia tailback Saquon Barkley, allowing just 27 yards on 16 carries in the second half.
up next: SNF@NWFCU | #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/CNYxxgvitt
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 27, 2024
The Falcons will look to establish the run as well, with Bijan Robinson, but if the Commanders could shut down Barkley, they have an excellent chance of doing the same thing to Robinson. On the season, Washington has 65 sacks on the season, and while Penix is more mobile than Kirk Cousins, getting more pressure on him than the Giants did last week has to be a priority for the Commanders.
A potential problem for Washington was their inability to run the ball against the Eagles. The O-line did a decent job protecting Daniels, but they couldn’t open up many holes at all against the Philadelphia front seven. It’s not like this is an outlier, either, as the Washington tailbacks only ran for 34 yards against New Orleans the week before, and the Saints are swirling the drain at this point in the season.
However, the passing game has done plenty of damage, and the top receiver has been Terry McLaurin, who has over 1,000 receiving yards on the season. The Washington O-line will need to do a better job opening holes for the Commanders tailbacks in order to take the pressure off Daniels to deliver on every play.
Â
Sunday Night Football Picks, Final Score and Prediction for Falcons at Commanders
Commanders Injuries
For Washington, tight end Zach Ertz was a full participant in Thursday’s practice after missing Wednesday to get shoulder treatment. Having the savvy veteran in the passing game gives Daniels another solid option. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday and is listed as questionable for Sunday night. Defensive end Clelin Ferrell (knee) was the other limited participant. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (pectoral) and linebacker Dante Fowler Jr (groin) were both full participants.
Falcons Injuries
For Atlanta, linebacker Lorenzo Carter (groin), tight end Ross Dwelley (ankle), defensive lineman Zach Harrison (Achilles), wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge (ribs), linebacker Nathan Landman (rest), wide receiver Drake London (knee) and tight end Casey Woermer (rest) were all limited in practice. The key name on that list is London who would give Penix another quality target down the field.
Bijan Robinson
Washington has allowed 137.4 rushing yards per game, the third-worst in the league. Robinson could be a threat on the Washington defense. The Commanders’ shutdown of Barkley was due to injuries to Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts and Eagles backup Kenny Pickett. If the Falcons can hit the ground, Jayden Daniels will be able to stand and watch as his defense spends time on the field. The Eagles’ backup, Kenny Pickett, also suffered injuries.
Also, don’t expect Penix to be as flustered by the day as some rookies might be. This is a quarterback who dealt with Big Ten environments while playing at Nebraska before transferring to Washington and leading his team to a Pac-12 title in 2023 – and a berth in the national championship game. The Falcons worked him into the NFL environment by starting him against the bottom-feeding Giants. Now that he has those first-game jitters out, he won’t be intimidated at all by the environment in Washington.
Even so, Daniels has faced just as many big moments as an SEC quarterback, and he’s led some dazzling games in the NFL already, instead of riding a strong running game to a win. I see the Commanders doing enough on defense, both by limiting the run and pressuring Penix, to generate enough turnovers and short fields for their own offense to get this win.
I predict a final score of Washington 23, Atlanta 16.
Â
Super Bowl 59 Betting Odds For Today
Bet NFL Football Lines in Xbet Sportsbook
Sunday Night Football Picks: Falcons at Commanders, Week 17
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines for Regular Season