Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced to reporters that right-hander Gavin Stone is still experiencing shoulder soreness and is “very unlikely” to return this year. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the news on X.
Stone landed on the IL September 6 due to right shoulder inflammation. The plan was for him to be shut down for about ten days, at which point the club would decide on a path forward based on how he felt. It seems that not much progress has been made and so the path back to the club has narrowed.
Prior to this injury, Stone was the most reliable member of a rotation that had suffered a great number of injuries. He tossed 140 1/3 innings over 25 starts, with both of those figures still leading the team. The only player close to him in those categories is Tyler Glasnow, who is also unlikely to come back this year, so Stone will finish 2024 as the team leader in those two categories. He had a 3.53 earned run average in that time as well as a 20% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate.
The health of the Dodger rotation, or lack thereof, has been an ongoing story throughout the year. Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan each required season-ending surgeries earlier in the campaign. As mentioned, Stone and Glasnow are both on the IL and unlikely to be healthy before the season’s done. Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw are also on the IL but still could contribute in the coming weeks. More on them below.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto also missed about three months due to a rotator cuff strain, though he is now back on the active roster. That’s a bit of positive news amid all the negative stuff, though there are questions there as well. Yamamoto returned before being fully stretched out and has only thrown four innings in each of his two outings since coming back. The kid gloves are apparently going to stay on, as Roberts said the club will continue to give him more than four days of rest between starts for the rest of the season and maybe into the playoffs as well, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times on X.
Around Yamamoto, the rest of the rotation has recently consisted of Jack Flaherty, Landon Knack, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Miller has an 8.52 ERA on the year and is being optioned today, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic on X, Miller’s second optional assignment of the year. Buehler has also struggled, with a 5.54 ERA on the year. Knack has a strong 3.70 ERA but in just 56 career innings at the major league level. Flaherty is having a great year but there are some health concerns with him as well, as he had back problems with the Tigers that reportedly scuttled a deal to the Yankees before the Dodgers acquired him instead.
Whether the Dodgers will replace Miller in the rotation or simply use bullpen games to finish the year remains to be seen. They are off on Monday, which could perhaps help them get by with just four starters, though Yamamoto’s restrictions complicate things. The club is a virtual lock for the postseason but the remaining games on the schedule are still meaningful. They are only 3.5 games up on the Padres in the West and only two games ahead of the Brewers for the second bye through the Wild Card round, with the Phillies currently holding the top spot.
Even if the Dodgers are able to cruise into a first-round bye, building a playoff rotation is going to be a concern. Perhaps Gonsolin or Kershaw could help out, depending on how things develop over the next few weeks. Kershaw has been on the IL since late May due to a bone spur ins his left big toe. He threw an 84-pitch bullpen session today, per Gonzalez on X, which is perhaps a good sign that he could still be a factor soon but the next steps aren’t clear.
As for Gonsolin, he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of last year and is currently on a rehab assignment. His first outing lasted two innings and the second went 2 2/3. Per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Roberts says Gonsolin will try to get through four innings in his next outing and then the club will talk about where to go from there. “It’s still a longer shot,” Robert said. “But I’m really impressed that Tony has taken this really seriously as a potential opportunity. He’s gonna take another one, and we’ll see from there.”
There are lots of moving parts and the club still has a chance to have a solid rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Flaherty with perhaps some combination of Knack, Buehler, Kershaw or Gonsolin in behind the front two. There even seems to be some non-zero chance that Shohei Ohtani takes a mound before the season is done, though that still seems like a real long shot.
The club and its fans know very well that a flimsy rotation can sink an otherwise strong season. Just last year, the Dodgers won 100 games but were quickly swept out of the playoffs by the Diamondbacks when injuries reduced their postseason rotation to Miller, Lance Lynn and an obviously-injured Kershaw. That will make their swirling rotation a key storyline in the coming weeks.