Gee-Five – Sounds like an error at the bingo hall or a failed boy band from a bad reality show

Like who the fuck are these guys? No, this is not a generic modeling photo advertising “sportswear” in the Sears catalogue. This is a band actually called Five. No, I am not joking. I’m not a huge music guy but I can at least tell you the names of bands and artists. These guys? Nope. Have no clue who they are.

And some people who are not crazy college football fans like myself might look at some of the programs in the Group of Five and ask “Who the fuck are they?” I could see that happening with Kennesaw State, the newest FBS squad. Or next year with Delaware and Missouri State, the next two moving up. You will learn. Hell, you can do that now by playing College Football 25. (Side note: I have not bought the game. Hell, I don’t have a PS5 or whatever version of the XBox you would need to play that. I might eventually do it. For now, I am between jobs so paying for a brand-new system and that game (and probably a few others) is not the most financially sound thing to do.)

So just like last year, I won’t be giving every conference its own post. I would say it’s way too much work but realistically it isn’t a whole lot more than what I do now. I just seem to be having a hankerin’ for these large-ass posts. I hope the readers are fine with it. Some advice: hold off on reading these posts until you have a massive shit brewing. Then you can get through it all in one sitting. Don’t tell me I don’t help you guys out. Alright, let’s go with the Group of Five conference predictions!

I have to choose a spot for the Independents and I absolutely refuse to include them with the better conferences. Why? Would you include UConn and UMass with them? No. So sorry Notre Dame, you have to be included in this post.

Also, for now, I will not include Washington State and Oregon State here either. Technically they are still part of the Pac-12, at least for 2024. It will be very interesting in the offseason to see what happens with the current Pac-2. Some of the Mountain West teams might be smart to move their football to the Pac-whatever. Sure, the MWC has a better broadcast deal than they used to but it’s not a ton better than what Wazzu and the Beavs have with the CW and some of their games on FOX networks.

Anyway, how about I include predictions for actual Independent teams, rather than teams that are not quite Independent. Let’s begin:

		Overall
		W	L
	Notre Dame	10	2
	UConn	3	9
	UMass	3	9

Army-less Thoughts

• I forgot to mention above that Army has moved on from Independentland. They are now in the American conference for football only. So we are now down to three true Independents and with UMass heading back to the MAC next year and UConn rumoured to potentially be making a deal with the American to join in football only, there may be only one Independent left. Yikes.
• As per usual, the Irish will be in contention for a spot in the newly expanded College Football Playoff. They can’t get a first round bye because those only go to conference champions but they could get a home playoff date and I have a feeling very few teams would want to go to South Bend in the middle of December. Their schedule is manageable with, realistically, three decently tough games and a big test against Florida State. Win at least two of those and they are a shoo-in for the CFP since Notre Dame will never be a program left out if they hit the ten-win mark.
• UConn might be slightly better than last season’s plunge back to familiar waters. 2022 might end up feeling like an anomaly, kind of like Bob Diaco’s one decent season back in 2015. The worst part is their schedule is not tough. Maryland is the toughest team on the schedule and they get two teams in Duke and Wake Forest that won’t be nearly as good as last year. Funny enough, Notre Dame has poached the starting quarterbacks from both those teams in the past two years. Look, it’s tough to win at Storrs and I honestly don’t see Jim Mora Jr. doing a whole lot better than anyone could have over the best decade or so.
• UMass should be a bit more competitive this season in Don Brown’s second kick at the can in Amherst. And their schedule isn’t bad, it’s just that there is almost no chance that they win a road game. Toledo, Buffalo, Miami-OH, Northern Illinois, Mississippi State and Georgia is a rough road sked for a team that’s still trying to get a foothold in FBS. I still believe this is a program that might never make a bowl game and should consider dropping back to FCS (like Idaho has with success). Harsh, but true.

Look, I’ve been hard on the Conference of the United States of America. And rightfully so. They had a chance years ago to merge with the Mountain West and right now that would look like, well, maybe not an awesome conference but a pretty stellar one. I mean who wouldn’t want to see New Mexico State travel to Boise to play on the blue turf? Anyway, they may have figured something out with C-USA Weekdays in October. They needed to do something considering when it came to television coverage, they were the dirt worst. I can’t even complain about geography really anymore. Look at all the conferences not named the MAC. The conference footprints are ridiculous. And finally, with everyone’s favourite heel program Liberty getting to the New Year’s Six, the conference is starting to get a tiny bit of respect. Let’s see if that respect will continue to rise.

C-U-Next Tuesday-USA Notes

• Many believe Liberty will once again go undefeated. And I get why. Their schedule is stupidly easy. But I believe they will trip up once. And looking at their record, I think you can figure out when that will be (hint: it rhymes with Fap-uh-latch-in Bate).
• Yet again, I have WKU near the top of the conference standings. Will they end up there? They should. But Jacksonville State could shock a lot of people and do well yet again this season. And now that their stupid transition period is over, they can become eligible for bowl games in a legitimate way. God, the NCAA fucking sucks.
• Welcome the Kennesaw State Owls to the FBS and Conference USA. It will not be an easy first season for them. Looking at their schedule, I see two wins but it would not surprise me at all to see them as a winless squad. Fair warning to Delaware and Missouri State for 2025.
• OK I am sure you look at my FIU prediction and think I am smoking crack. I’m not. You’ll just have to believe me on that. If it wasn’t for Liberty, the Panthers’ sked might be the easiest in all of FBS. Their home slate is great: the toughest team they play is Central Michigan. CENTRAL MICHIGAN. So don’t be surprised if they run the table at home in hot, steamy, humid, uncomfortable Miami. The road slate isn’t as easy but they should be able to get one or two wins out of it. So there you go. Bowl-bound FIU!
• New Mexico State without Jerry Kill feels wrong despite the fact Kill was only there for two seasons. But what he did in Las Cruces was nothing short of miraculous. That may be the toughest place to recruit players and he did a masterful job. Without him, I see a bowl game as just out of their grasp (although I’d be happy to be wrong on this).
• As for the conference championship game, I can’t see it being a toss up. In the end I predict a Liberty blowout. Prediction: Liberty 55 WKU 17.
• Only four bowl-eligible teams from the conference. Don’t be surprised with a group that will mostly struggle in their non-conference schedules.

FUN BELT!

FUN BELT!

• I mean is there much more to say than that? OK, yes…yes there is.
• The Sun Belt is now the only conference left in FBS to have divisions. Honestly, I’d be fine with them eliminating the divisions next season. Because I hate divisions in college football.
• But for now we have divisions. And in the West there will be a new sheriff in town. It’s finally time for the Texas State Bobcats to ascend to the division throne. It took them enough time. I think people don’t realize how big this school actually is. They have 38,000 undergraduates. That’s massive. And they may have finally figured out the formula to become a player in the Sun Belt.
• The East seems like it will be a two team race. App State and JMU are a level above the rest of the teams in the division. It is a bit jarring to see Coastal where they are but losing Grayson McCall (among other players) to the transfer portal has hit them harder than many teams and it will show.
• I think it’s high time that Whataburger sponsors the Sun Belt Championship. I’ve been to Whataburger actually. It’s really good. Better than a lot of fast food places I would say. Then again, some people here think Burger King is good fast food and other than the Whopper it’s all shit.
• Oh yes, my prediction for that championship game. I think the Bobcats will keep it close for about three quarters and then the Mountaineers will pull away. Prediction: Appalachian State 49 Texas State 31.
• Nine bowl-eligible teams! Nine! Impressive. Now will all nine make it to a bowl game. You’ll have to wait to find out during my bowl game post.

Welcome Army! The Black Knights have rejoined a conference for the first time since their ill-fated (to put it nicely) sojourn into Conference USA for seven seasons around the millennium. How bad was it? Their best overall record was 3-8 which they did three times with their best conference record being 2-4. Brutal. It is easily the worst seven-season stretch in Army football history. And hey, they are going to be pretty competitive right away in their new conference home. Teams are going to struggle when they head to the shores of the Hudson River to face this team, not gonna lie.

How will the rest of the teams fare? Well, let’s just get right to it followed by some Group of Five Dominance Musings:

Group of Five Dominance Musings

• Tulane is still really good, despite losing Willie Fritz to the Power Five Four. But I believe Memphis will be better. They feel like many experts’ favourite to get to the College Football Playoff from the Group of Five. Still, their mega-matchup on American Thanksgiving, I believe, will see a Green Wave victory which will upset the apple cart in a way.
• Remember what I said about Army? Yeah, a good first season. This is not going out on a limb. Plus, playing defense against the option looks like it seriously sucks.
• I think Tulsa will be one of the most improved teams in FBS. Yes, I only have them two games better than the previous season but if they win eight games I wouldn’t bat an eye.
• Even more of an improvement will probably be UAB. Maybe it was just the Blazers’ first season in the AAC and they struggled to acclimate themselves but I feel last year will look like an abberation since the football program returned to play.
• Tulane’s win over Memphis in the final week of the regular season will lock them in to host the Tigers yet again on the same field eight days later. I don’t see the Green Wave making it two wins in a row. Prediction: Memphis 30 Tulane 19.
• I got nine teams from the American making it to bowl games. Nine out of fourteen is pretty damn good for a Group of Five conference. Will Memphis be highly ranked enough to get them into the College Football Playoff? Again, you will have to watch out for the bowl game prediction post. Also, I won’t even bother discussing how many bowl tie-ins the conference has because the tie-in system is a fucking mess now. It’s time to reduce the amount of bowl tie-ins like yesterday.

MACtion was the originator of the weeknight Fall college football affair. Sure, there were conferences and teams that did it for years before but really, Saturdays were the domain of college football and that was it. Then ESPN helped create MACtion and watching college football on a Tuesday night became a staple of the viewing universe. Yes, I have watched games go into overtime and go toward midnight on a random Wednesday even though I have to go to work the next day because I fucking love college football and I’m a complete lunatic.

Now, MACtion isn’t as special. I hate to say it but it’s true. We have had the Fun Belt for a few years now and we now have C-USA October Weeknights intruding on the fun. It has got to the point that if there wasn’t Monday Night Football, college football would find a way to put a game on that night. Am I complaining? No. Just stating facts.

OK let’s get to the MAC predictions followed by some not-so-special weeknight statements:

Not-So-Special Weeknight Statements

• I feel like the Redhawks are actually quite a bit better than most of the rest of the conference and that their record might not show it. Saying that, I have their three losses being their first three games of the season in Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame. They might be able to pull off wins over the Wildcats and/or Bearcats. If so, they would put themselves squarely in the College Football Playoff conversation. Hell, maybe they will be the Irish’s once-every-two-years-or-so brain fart game where they totally botch a home game they are heavily favoured to win.
• The battle for second place is going to be a slog. No team is going to be dominant over the others. WMU, NIU and Toledo all feel around the same in terms of talent and what they should do this season. I might even put EMU in that category if they can pull off an upset or two. So don’t be surprised if any team not called Ball State punches their ticket to Ford Field in December.
• To some it may look weird to see Bowling Green near the top of the MAC standings. I am among those. It hasn’t felt like the Falcons have been even close to a player in the conference since Dino Babers was coaching there. Expect them to play at least a couple of very important MACtion games in November that could change what happens in the MAC as a whole.
• Akron and Kent State are still terrible. Buffalo looks like they will join them this season. And Ball State is not too far away from that set of teams.
• As I said above, Miami University of Ohio is the top MAC team coming into the season. I think they will win the MAC title and a potential date back at that same Ford Field a few weeks later. But it won’t be a blowout since the MAC Championship usually gets a bit weird. Prediction: Miami-OH 21 Western Michigan 13.
• Eight bowl teams coming from the MAC but I have a feeling one of them for sure won’t end up getting invited to a bowl game which will piss off the too many bowl games crowd.

The conference that keeps me up well into Sunday morning. Late night CBS Sports Network games that may or may not be delayed by weather. FOX Sports One (or even Two) games that FOX puts in the late night spot because they have too much Big Ten football to show during the day. And of course, the Hawaii Test. The ultimate in college football viewing pleasures (and also complete insanity). I don’t even know how I get through and then watch more football on Sunday and go to work on Monday. I am sure my productivity is shit but oh well.

Alright, now I will move on to a touchy subject before I give you more predictions.

*deep breath*

Let’s talk about potential realignment. WAIT, DON’T LEAVE! Look, the Pac-12 is dead except for two teams. Will those two teams join the Mountain West? Will some Mountain West teams join the Pac-12 remaining teams to make a new Pac-12? Will they just create a brand new conference? A lot of questions to come over the next year or so. The Mountain West is now sitting as the number two Group of Five conference behind the American with no chance at moving up to number one in the near future. Hell, they could drop to number three considering how much the Sun Belt has improved. So do they pull the trigger and try to make something happen? They already have a scheduling arrangement with Wazzu and Oregon State. They could make it something more. Just something to think about.

OK now I will get to the predictions followed by some Jolt Cola-sponsored ramblings:

Ramblings Sponsored by Jolt Cola

• Have you ever tasted Jolt Cola? It really isn’t that good. It’s like cola that has been allowed to go slightly flat and then mixed with battery acid.
• Boise is, once again, the favourite to win the Mountain West. It feels like the Andy Avalos era (and I use the word era very loosely here) feels like something will be instantly forgotten because the team was so much better without him. Do they have enough to get to the CFP? Well, the schedule works out nicely and other than their game against Oregon they should be favoured in all their other games.
• Who else is near the top? The two teams that were also near the top last year in Fresno State and UNLV. The Rebels shocked a lot of people by doing as well as they did and Fresno had the conference on lock until a bizarre set of games in late October and early November which totally derailed their seasons. Both teams will, however, have to be near perfect, at least inside the conference, to force the Broncos from the catbird seat.
• Before I continue, you will notice that there are only seven conference games for all the Mountain West teams this year. That’s because every team plays at least one game against either Oregon State or Washington State in their scheduling arrangement (at least for this year). Whether that changes next year remains to be seen.
• At the opposite end of the spectrum are the usual suspects. New Mexico and Nevada will be awful and Ken Niumatalolo will need some time to spin his magic in San Jose.
• The Mountain West Championship will be on the possibly frozen tundra of Boise on the Smurf turf. This might be a bloodbath, I’m not gonna lie. Prediction: Boise State 49 Fresno State 7.
• Only six bowl teams predicted for this conference which seems a little low compared to other conferences. And with a potential CFP spot, they would only need to fill in five tie-ins which is good because the tie-in system is fucked as I have mentioned before.

Look, Washington State and Oregon State are not Power Five or Power Four or just Power teams anymore. That’s the reality. They are the two remaining members of the Pac-12 and have a scheduling arrangement, as I said above, with the Mountain West. I have no idea what is going to happen to these two programs. The rest of their sports have gone to the West Coast Conference. Great for basketball because Gonzaga is there (for now) but probably not a whole lot else. As for football…who knows (as I shrug my shoulders).

So here’s the very short predictions for the Pac-2:

		Overall
		W	L
	Oregon State	9	3
	Washington State	7	5

Total Control Pac-2 Thoughts

• So both teams would be bowl eligible according to my predictions. For this year (and probably next), all Pac-12 teams will slot into the current Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. Is this a bit unwieldy? For most of the teams, yes, but for these two, not so much. It makes perfect sense for them.
• There’s no official Pac-12 Championship but these two teams face off in the penultimate week of the season. So for the unofficial Pac-2 Championship, I have to make a prediction, right? Prediction: Oregon State 45 Washington State 35.

Alright, our journey is partially complete. We have the major conferences left to go and then all the other fun lists that I come up with that I know you love. Have a great week everyone!