The horse racing broadcaster explains how to use the numbers to make your selection in the feature race at Ascot, and picks out four Saturday selections.
The middle day of the Berkshire Winter Million has a more familiar look to it with the Clarence House Chase at Ascot jumping at the slightly ridiculous off time of 15:32. By all means, stagger times to minimise clashes, but revolve these times around your centre piece to emphasise its prestige rather than making it sound like the stopping service to Waterloo!
The make-up of the Clarence House Chase market provides an opportunity to revisit some of the gambling theory basics to try and illustrate how being comfortable with numbers in whatever format and specifically relative probabilities is a massive help in identifying your bets. It may seem like heading back to the dreaded Maths classroom but it really is worth it!
Let’s start with the traditional basic example of the toss of a coin, where the probability of a head or a tail is evens. Irrespective of any personal preference, if someone offers you greater than evens on a head or a tail then that has to be your bet. How much to stake then becomes an interesting question, and depends significantly on whether this is a one-off offer or whether the enhanced odds are available on multiple occasions. Despite knowing you are getting the odds, it is a brave individual who risks everything on a single coin toss. If the odds are available for multiple events, though, then over time the gains will be significant and by building a bank of profits then stakes can be increased.
This all sounds fine, but relative probability in regards to backing horses is not as simple as a heads or tails outcome. Being comfortable juggling the numbers can make it easier to identify where your personal preference in a market lies.
Let’s use the Clarence House market as an example, as its make-up with Jonbon v Energumene has a heads or tails feel to it in terms of only two likely outcomes. For ease, I will use the following prices that reflect the market at the time of writing.
Jonbon 4/6, Enurgemene 2/1, Edwardstone 8/1, Boothill 16/1
Start by turning them into percentages. At 2/1, Energumene has a 1 in 3 chance of winning, or 33 per cent, according to the bookmakers. Edwardstone has an 11 per cent chance, and Boothill roughly six per cent.
The trickier odds can always be calculated the same way – add the bottom number to the top and then divide 100 by that number. With Jonbon’s cumbersome 4-6, add one to make 10/6 or 1.67. Divide 100 by 1.67 = 60.
So the percentages on these prices are:
Jonbon 60%, Enurguemene 33%, Edwardstone 11%, Boothill 6%
This adds up to 110% – the excess being the bookmakers’ margin.
Now all of this may seem complicated to start with but with a little practise (or an Excel spreadsheet pinched off the internet!) it will quickly become second nature and will enable to look at the odds in a simpler way.
If we assume that you really don’t fancy either of the outsiders to provide a shock, then choosing between the front two depends on whether you think Jonbon has roughly twice as good a chance as Enurgemene (60 vs 33).
Any theory is only as good as its successful application, but if you can become comfortable handling the numbers then identifying the bets you should make on your own personal view of the relative probability becomes easier.
The other great advantage punters have is not having to bet in every race, so even after all the maths gymnastics it may just be that a market is in line with your expectations. If so, just move on to the next race.
That is probably true of my view on the Clarence House. I naturally gravitate to Enurgemene as I require a lot of persuasion to back really short-priced horses because of my personal staking plan, which I will expand on another time, but the level of uncertainty is high and here are a few races where I believe there are better opportunities:
TAKE NO CHANCES 7/2 (13:40 Ascot). Looks a solid choice against a favourite Kargese who I feel may be vulnerable first up off her juvenile year.
ROYALE PAGAILLE 9/4 (14.30 Haydock). The class angle coupled with the fact we know how much he relishes a slog in the mud at the Lancashire track.
BO ZENITH 3/1 (14:50 Ascot). Was too far back in a steadily run race last time and did well to finish off as well as he did. Understandably ridden to come home off the back of an absence this will test his durability more but clearly on that run his handicap mark should not be a problem if he holds together physically.
LOSSIEMOUTH 6/1 (15:05 Haydock). Not that one (!) but another who ran really well off an absence of Battle of Hastings proportions (1066 days). He has been dropped during that time off by the handicapper to an appealing mark and the yard had a good winner of a Listed Mares race at Newbury this week.
STATS ALL FOLKS
Jonathan Burke at Ascot. 16 wins from 65 rides for an A/E of 1.92 means he has ridden 92% more winners than the market expected. He has five rides on the car but just the one for his yard in KAMSINAS (14:05) who he has ridden to victory and is up against Bo Zenith.
Jamie Osbourne a yard in form.  All weather can escape a little under the radar with the focus on jumping but 5 of the yard’s last 9 runners have won, three at double figure prices. The stable has three runners today – MANY A STAR (12:15 Lingfield), IMPERIAL FIGHTER (17:30 Wolverhampton) and AL WAQIDI (18:30 Wolverhampton).
Back on Sunday with a blog for the final day of the Berkshire Winter Million. Enjoy juggling the numbers!
Visit Betway’s horse racing betting page.