Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) warms up before the game against the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
- Bettors are on the Jets as 4-point underdogs ahead of the first Monday nighter of the season against the 49ers
- Under 43 is drawing the vast majority of the tickets on the total, but most of the O/U handle is on the over
- See all the Jets vs 49ers public betting splits for the Monday Night Football on September 9th
The NFL is back in a big way, and the schedule-makers have gifted us a potential heavyweight bout between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers. Defending NFC-champion San Francisco will play host to a familiar foe at quarterback, with Aaron Rodgers entering his second year in the Big Apple. Last season was wiped out after just four plays when A-Rod tore his achilles.
Which way are bettors leaning ahead of tonight’s kick-off? The table below sets out the Jets vs 49ers public-betting splits for Monday Night Football.
Jets vs 49ers Betting Splits & Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | +4 | 62% | 64% | 43 | 70% | 27% | +180 | 10% | 11% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -4 | 38% | 36% | 43 | 30% | 73% | -198 | 90% | 89% |
SF is a four-point favorite in the Week 1 NFL odds to defeat Aaron Rodgers and company. Beating New York by more than four points is apparently too tall a task in the eyes of bettors, as the Jets are drawing 64% of the against-the-spread bets and wagers per the NFL public betting trends.
Public-betting splits as of 11 am ET, September 9. Claim the top DraftKings promos to bet on Monday Night Football.
NFL Spread Betting Splits Favor Jets
The last 24 years, the Super Bowl loser is 5-19 against the spread in Week 1 the following campaign. Kyle Shanahan hasn’t been stellar against the number, historically, going 2-5 in Week 1 as head coach of the 49ers.
Worst NFL coaches (active) against the spread in Week 1 ❌
Mike Tomlin 8-9 ATS
Sean Payton 7-9 ATS
Zac Taylor 2-3 ATS
Kyle Shanahan 2-5 ATS
Dan Quinn 1-5 ATSData per @Bet_Labs pic.twitter.com/88w7DDSTy5
— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 3, 2024
The 49ers have been defeated ATS in their last seven home games, including the playoffs. It’s their longest home ATS losing skid since losing ten straight in 1982-83.
Based on their own ATS trends, it’s hardly a shoo-in that New York will cover. They were 2-9 ATS in their final eleven games last season. Of course, that was without the services of future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers. However, in three seasons under Robert Saleh, the Jets are 20-31 ATS, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL over that span.
Jets vs 49ers Total Favors a Low-Scoring Game
When you think Rodgers and the Jets vs a high-flying 49ers offense led by Brock Purdy, you’d probably imagine a lot of points being on the board. However, last season, both New York and San Francisco ranked inside the top-ten in scoring defense.
Top NFL Scoring Defenses in 2023
| Team | Rank (PPG allowed) |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 (16.2) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 (17.0) |
| Buffalo Bills | 3 (18.7) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4 (18.8) |
| New York Jets | 10 (20.9) |
The total is set at 43 points. 49ers games have gone under the total in Week 1 in nine of the last ten seasons. Despite that troubling trend, there’s plenty of reasons to back the 49ers. After all, SF is the second choice in the Super Bowl 59 odds.
The NFL over under trends still point to the under being hit. Primetime unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons, including 35-23 last season. New York’s Jets contests are 22-12 to the under over the past two seasons.
NFL Moneyline Handle Favors San Francisco
As of Monday morning, a lot of of action on the moneyline tickets point towards a San Francisco victory. 90% of the moneyline handle is backing Purdy and company in this contest, with 89% of the moneyline tickets backing the defending NFC champs.
San Francisco finished up the 2023 campaign having lost three of their last five regular season home games. The Jets, despite their many flaws, actually were victorious in three of their final five contests to end last year.
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Michael “Hound Dog” Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he’s been featured on Sportscentre, That’s Hockey, That’s Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.