In an upcoming edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, veteran reliever Joe Kelly told host Rob Bradford (X link) that he isn’t yet planning to retire, and that the right-hander is aiming to return next season and pitch in what would be his 14th Major League campaign.
While there hadn’t been any particular indication that Kelly was thinking of calling it a career, it was fair to wonder about his future considering his recent injury history. Kelly was limited to 35 games and 32 innings for the Dodgers this season due to recurring shoulder problems, most prominently a right posterior strain that put him on the injured list for about 2.5 months. The right-hander then missed a little under three weeks during another IL stint due to shoulder soreness, and missed out on the Dodgers’ playoff run after (according to manager Dave Roberts) tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game in early October. Kelly did tell Bradford that he thought he might get inserted onto the World Series roster if the Fall Classic had gone to a Game 6, perhaps due to another injury within the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Kelly has now visited the IL on ten separate occasions over the last five seasons, due to a variety of both arm-related (shoulder, elbow inflammation, nerve problem in his bicep) issues and other maladies like a groin strain or a hamstring strain. The longest of these IL stints was this season’s trip to the 60-day IL for the shoulder strain, but the sheer number of knocks clearly makes durability a big concern for Kelly as he heads into his age-37 season.
Unsurprisingly, Kelly’s performance has tended to fluctuate pretty wildly amidst all these injuries. He has a 4.21 ERA over 162 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, with a strong 29.4% strikeout rate but also an 11.2% walk rate. Kelly had this same walk rate during the 2024 season, though only with a 24.5K% and a 4.78 ERA in his 32 frames. Most of his Statcast metrics were below average, yet Kelly can still bring elite velocity with his 98.1 mph fastball.
That eye-popping heater will still surely get Kelly some looks from interested teams in free agency this winter, though landing anything beyond a one-year contract would count as a surprise. Kelly’s past forays into the open market have netted some healthy contracts — a three-year, $25MM pact with the Dodgers in December 2018, then a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the start of the 2022 season. That latter contract contained a $9.5MM club option for 2024 that the Dodgers (who re-acquired Kelly at the 2023 trade deadline) declined, though they then re-signed Kelly on a one-year, $8MM pact for 2024.
Returning to L.A. on a lower salary could certainly be in the cards, as there is some obvious fondness between the two sides and Kelly would surely love a crack at a fourth World Series ring. Beyond the Dodgers, pretty much any team in need of extra bullpen velo could consider Kelly in the hopes that he is due for another bounce-back year, even with the caveat that is seems unlikely he’d avoid the injured list for an entire season.