Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm Predictions, Picks & Best Odds (Sep. 17)

Jul 16, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Seattle Storm guard Skylar Diggins-Smith (4) reacts in the second half against the LA Sparks at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

• The surging Las Vegas Aces visit the Seattle Storm on Tuesday, Sep. 17
• Leading scorer Jewell Loyd is out for Seattle, along with starting center Ezi Magbegor
• See the Aces vs Storm predictions, expert picks, and best odds for tonight’s game at Climate Pledge Arena

Winners of three straight and seven of eight, the Las Vegas Aces (25-13, 13-6 away, 17-20-1 ATS) visit the shorthanded Seattle Storm (24-14, 14-5 home, 18-20 ATS) on Tuesday night at Climate Pledge Arena at 7:00 pm PT/10:00 pm ET.

Seattle has been excellent at home all season, winning 14 of 19 at Climate Pledge Arena, but with Jewell Loyd (19.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.6 APG) and Ezi Magbegor (11.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.2 BPG) both out of the lineup, oddsmakers give Las Vegas a big edge in the Aces vs Storm odds; most sportsbooks list the visitors as 7.5-point favorites.

Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm Prediction & Picks

Missing Loyd and Magbegor hurts, especially on the defensive end, where the 6’4 Magbegor – who’s averaging 2.2 blocks per game – would be asked to contain two-time MVP A’Ja Wilson.

But depth is one of Seattle’s biggest strengths. Five different Storm players are averaging double-figures on the season. Last time out – missing both Lody and Magbegor – they won straight-up against the LA Sparks (90-87), in a game they led by 14 at halftime, for their fourth consecutive victory. Though it has to be noted that Loyd and Magbegor played in the other three.

Longtime Spark forward Nneka Ogwumike had a team-high 23 points and seven rebounds in the victory over her former team while guard Gabby Williams (10.0 PPG) took advantage of her increased usage, adding 22 points.

The Aces have been on a tear of their own, winning seven of their last eight, which includes a pair of victories over the Connecticut Sun () and Caitlin Clark’s much-improved Indiana Fever. Three of the four came on the road. The only team that’s managed to hand the two-time defending WNBA champs a loss in the last three weeks is the league-leading New York Liberty, who edged A’Ja Wilson and company 75-71 at the Barclays Center.

Five of LV’s last seven wins have come by double-digits, including a resounding 84-71 home win over Connecticut last time out, spearheaded by 29 points and nine rebounds from Wilson, who is averaging 27 and 12 on the season and is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP again.

Yet, this spread is just too big for me to stomach on the road against a team as disciplined as the Storm.

Moreover, I expect it to be a lower-scoring affair, which will make covering a big spread more difficult. Each of the Aces’ last five games have stayed under today’s total of 162.5, and they have averaged just 152.3 PPG in that span.  Each of Seattle’s last three games have gone over 162.5 but they’re averaging just under that for the season (162.2 PPG) and I expect Seattle to try to keep this one at a lower tempo. When you’re at a disadvantage, skill-wise, you want a shorter game with higher variability.

Best Aces vs Storm Odds

There is very little variation in the Aces vs Storm odds across sportsbooks. The spread is Las Vegas -7.5 at all sites, though bettors can get the Storm to cover at -105 at Caesars, while FanDuel has the Aces -7.5 at -106. The best moneyline price on Las Vegas is -325 at FanDuel while the best odds on a Seattle straight-up victory are +270 at DraftKings.

There is a half-point variation in the game total. Most sites list it at 163 even but as of publication time, DraftKings had the total at 162.5 while ESPN Bet had increased it all the  way to 163.5.

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