Aug 13, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Paul Blackburn (58) pitches against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
- The Mets look to complete sweep of Marlins as heavy favorites in Sunday’s series finale
- Rookie Valente Bellozo gives Miami value in matchup vs struggling Paul Blackburn
- Check out our Marlins vs Mets prediction, odds and best bets for Sunday, August 18th, below
The Miami Marlins (45-78) and New York Mets (64-59) wrap up their three-game series at Citi Field in Queens on Sunday, August 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast exclusively on Roku.
The Mets are heavily favored with a -190 moneyline, while the Marlins are underdogs at +160. The run line is Mets -1.5 and the over/under total is set at 8.5 runs. Can New York complete the sweep on Sunday afternoon?
We’ve locked in our Marlins vs Mets prediction for August 18th, identifying the best value on the board.
Marlins vs Mets Prediction (Sunday)
The Mets have dominated the first two games of this series, outscoring the Marlins 11-3. On Saturday, Luis Severino threw a complete game shutout, allowing just four hits in the Mets’ 4-0 victory. Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso provided the offense with solo home runs.
Despite New York being favored, I see some value in the Marlins on Sunday. The line movement in the MLB odds shows some slight action in favor of Miami, indicating that sharp bettors feel this line is too lopsided.
Rookie right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the nod for the Fish, and he’s been excellent through five starts with a 2.28 ERA. It won’t be long before the 24-year-old pops up in the NL Rookie of the Year odds. This means the Mets will be seeing a righty for the first time in the series.
Valente Bellozo over his last 3 starts:
17.2 IP
1.02 ERA
0.91 WHIP
13 Kpic.twitter.com/fw4XodVbnX— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) August 14, 2024
On the flip side, Mets starter Paul Blackburn is looking to bounce back after getting roughed up by his old Athletics teammates last time out. Blackburn was tagged for six runs in four innings, and could be vulnerable against a sneaky-hot Marlins lineup.
Miami’s Jake Burger has been on an absolute tear, batting .385 with seven homers over his last 10 games. Throw in leadoff man Xavier Edwards, who is consistently getting on base, and the Marlins have some offensive upside.
The Mets are clearly the better team and playing at home, but the +160 price is too good to pass up on the Marlins. If Bellozo continues to deal and Miami’s bats get to Blackburn, the upset could be on in New York. The prediction here is to take a shot on the Marlins moneyline based on the value.
MIA-NYM Sunday Pick:
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Odds (August 18)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA Marlins | +1.5 (-125) | +160 | Over 8.5 (-115) |
| NY Mets | -1.5 (+105) | -190 | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Aug. 18 at ESPN Sportsbook. Unlock the ESPN Bet promo code to bet on Sunday afternoon baseball.
Mets Heavily Favored in Sunday MLB Odds
The Mets are substantial -190 favorites, implying a 66% win probability. You’d need to lay $190 to win $100 on New York. The Marlins are +160 underdogs, returning $160 on a $100 bet if they spring the upset. That equates to about a 38% chance of a Miami victory.
The Mets have been a strong home team recently, winning 19 of their last 27 at Citi Field. However, they are just 6-3 this season when favored at -190 or higher. The Marlins are 11-23 as a +160 or greater underdog.
On the runline, the Mets are +105 to cover the -1.5 and win by at least two runs. The Marlins are -125 to stay within one run or win outright.
The total is set at 8.5 runs, juiced to -105 on the under and -115 to the over. The Mets have surpassed the total in five straight, while the over has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last 10 contests.
Miami vs New York Starting Pitchers
Sunday’s pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers in Miami’s Valente Bellozo and New York’s Paul Blackburn.
Bellozo, 24, has been a revelation for the Marlins in his rookie season. Through five starts, he boasts a 2-1 record, 2.28 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 27.2 innings. Last time out against the Phillies, Bellozo fired seven shutout innings, allowing only four hits.
| 2-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 2.28 | ERA | 4.43 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | OFF |
| 7.5 | K/9 | OFF |
| 27.2 | IP | 67.2 |
Blackburn came to the Mets from Oakland at the trade deadline and has been up-and-down in his new uniform. Overall, the veteran is 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 2024. Blackburn lasted just four innings in his previous start, getting tagged for six runs on six hits by the A’s.
Considering recent play, Bellozo gives Miami an edge on the mound. However, he isn’t going deep into games, so the Marlins will need their shaky bullpen (7.30 ERA last 10 games) to hold a lead.
Marlins vs Mets Injury News
Neither team has reported any new injuries that will impact this game. The only player mentioned on the injured list is Mets closer Edwin Diaz, but he was seen getting loose in the bullpen on Saturday and seems to be nearing a return.
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.