Aug 4, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) points toward home plate during the second inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
- Ten MLB games are on the schedule on Thursday
- Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Paul Skenes are all on the mound
- See the MLB predictions, player props, and best bets for Aug. 22
Thursday’s MLB schedule features ten games, starting with Gerrit Cole and the AL East-leading New York Yankees hosting Gavin Williams and the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium. The night wraps up with a pivotal game in the NL playoff race as the New York Mets, who are 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card, visit the San Diego Padres, who are tied with Arizona for the first NL Wild Card.
The table below lists my three favorite picks for Thursday, in chronological order.
MLB Best Bets & Picks for Thursday, Aug. 22
| Bet | Odds | Sportsbook | Game Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole over 6.5 Ks | +125 | DraftKings | 1:05 pm ET |
| Justin Steele under 1.5 earned runs | +135 | DraftKings | 2:20 pm ET |
| Mets vs Padres under 7.5 | -120 | FanDuel | 9:40Â pm ET |
Two of today’s picks are plus-money props on a couple of aces, while the third and final pick is an under in one of the league’s lowest-scoring stadiums.
Odds as of August 22. Get the apps for the top MLB betting sites.Â
Pick #1: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Today’s first pick is Gerrit Cole to go over 6.5 Ks when his Yankees host the Guardians. The main reason Cole is in plus-money to hit at least seven strikeouts is the opponent; Cleveland’s lineup is one of the best in the league at not striking out. Only three teams in baseball have a lower K-rate than Cleveland’s 19.7%.
But Cole, whose season didn’t commence until June 19 due to injury, has been making up for lost time. He’s struck out 18 over his last two games and gone over 6.5 Ks in five of his last seven.
The current Cleveland lineup has struck out 30 time in 111 total ABs against Cole. Three Guardian hitters (Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez) have faced Cole at least 20 times, and all three have a K-rate of at least 24.2%. Cole’s last start against Cleveland saw the Yankee ace rack up eight strikeouts, though it was way back in May 2023.
Pick #2: Justin Steele Under 1.5 Earned Runs
Thursday’s second MLB best bet is Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele to allow fewer than 1.5 earned runs against the light-hitting Detroit Tigers.
Steele has allowed just two earned runs in his last 14.2 innings and none in his last two starts (one of which was limited to 2.0 innings due to weather delays).
The Tigers, who sit 26th in the majors in wRC+ (91) and wOBA (.296), have only scored more than one run against the opposing starter in two of their last seven games. In four of those games, they were shutout over the first six innings. And, on average in those seven games, they scored just 1.42 runs over the first six innings.
Steele has been a little better on the road than at home this season, but only one of the Tigers has ever seen him before (Matt Vierling is 0-for-1 with a walk) and the wind at Wrigley is expected to be pitcher-friendly today.
Pick #3: Mets vs Padres Under 7.5 Runs
Today’s final pick is the New York Mets and San Diego Padres to hit the under on 7.5 runs in their series-opener at Petco Park. As usual, Petco has been one of the lowest-scoring ballparks in the MLB this season; its Park Factor of 96 is fourth-lowest, according to baseballsavant.com.
Both the Mets and Padres have quality starters on the mound on Thursday. New York is sending Luis Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA, 3.85 xERA) to the hill with the Padres countering with Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA, 3.29 xERA). Severino is coming off a complete-game shutout against the Marlins last time out while Cease has allowed just four earned runs combined in his last four starts at home (25.2 innings).
Severino also has excellent numbers against the few Padres hitters who have faced him. Xander Bogaerts is just 3-for-29 (.103 average) with one double and eight strikeouts, while Manny Machado is 4-for-17 (.235) with 10 strikeouts, though three of his four hits were longballs. Jake Cronenworth is 0-for-3.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.