Sep 17, 2022; Portland, Oregon, USA; Montana State Bobcats quarterback Tommy Mellott (4) scrambles under pressure from Oregon State Beavers linebacker John McCartan (6) during the first half at Providence Park. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
- FSC juggernaut Montana State battles New Mexico of FBS in CFB Week 0
- The latest Montana State vs New Mexico odds favor the Bobcats as 11.5-point favorites
- Read below for Montana State vs New Mexico odds, H2H and predictions
Week 0 of the college football season always delivers some quirky matchups, but this showdown between FCS power Montana State and struggling FBS squad New Mexico might take the cake.
The Bobcats and Lobos are set to square off at University Stadium in Albuquerque on Saturday, August 24th at 4:00 PM EDT on FS1. Oddsmakers are favoring the FCS contender over the FBS bottom feeder.
Let’s examine the odds for Montana State vs New Mexico, as we make our CFB Week 0 prediction.
Montana State vs New Mexico Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State | -11.5 | -549 | 54.5 (Under) |
| New Mexico | +11.5 | +410 | 54.5 (Over) |
The Bobcats, a powerhouse FCS program, opened as 4.5-point road favorites against the Lobos back in early July. However, heavy betting action on MSU has caused this spread to steam all the way up to Bobcats -11.5. If this line holds, it will be the largest spread ever for an FCS team over an FBS squad.
Odds as of August 22nd, at ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the best sports betting sites for CFB Week 0.
With an implied win probability of 84.6% at -549 on the moneyline, the oddsmakers are showing some serious respect to Montana State. New Mexico, meanwhile, has just a 19.6% chance to pull the outright upset at +410 ML odds.
The total of 54.5 feels about right for two teams that like to play fast, especially if New Mexico finds itself in an early hole. But with some slight juice shaded to the under, it seems books are expecting Montana State’s defense to put the clamps on a bit.
H2h History
These two schools have only met twice before, with Montana State holding a 1-0-1 series edge. But you’d have to go all the way back to New Year’s Day 1947 to find their last matchup – a tie in the Harbor Bowl. Ancient history to put it lightly.
Bobcats Betting Analysis
There’s a reason Montana State has become such a heavy favorite in this spot – they’re absolutely loaded. The Bobcats return a ton of talent from an 8-4 squad that only lost to FCS juggernauts NDSU and SDSU by five total points last year.
Montana State’s offense is led by “Touchdown” Tommy Mellott. The dual-threat senior QB put up over 1,700 total yards and 15 TDs in 2023 despite having to split time. He now has the reins of an offense that returns its top 4 rushers and leading receiver Taco McCulloch.
𝐉𝐨𝐛’𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐝.@Tommy_Mellott#BobcatBuilt | #GoCatsGo pic.twitter.com/vfVLWS6fzU
— Montana State Football (@MSUBobcats_FB) January 8, 2024
That continuity, along with all five starters back on the offensive line, makes the Bobcats deserving of their favorite status in the Week 0 CFB odds.
Defensively, Montana State was no slouch either in 2023, allowing just 21.8 PPG (17th in the FCS). They return several starters at all three levels, including multiple guys in the secondary who played over 300 snaps last season.
Lobos Betting Analysis
New Mexico is basically starting from scratch in 2024 after a 4-8 season that led to a coaching change. New head man Bronco Mendenhall has a rebuilding job on his hands with the Lobos bringing back just 41% of last year’s production.
The biggest questions come on offense, where New Mexico has to replace its entire starting O-line. Not ideal for sophomore QB Devon Dampier, who showed flashes down the stretch in 2023 with 6 TDs and 0 INTs to close the year. He faces a tough test behind a brand-new front five.
🏈 CFB Player Spotlight
🐺 New Mexico QB, Devon Dampier
New Mexico is an 11 point underdog against FCS Montana State in week one, and I think people are highly underrating Devon Dampier
Dampier lead the Lobos to a road win against Fresno State and nearly knocked off Utah… pic.twitter.com/zF6UJcXCkh
— betsbystevie (@betsbystevie) August 21, 2024
New Mexico’s defense, which surrendered a porous 407.5 yards per game in 2023, will have its hands full against the Bobcats’ powerful ground attack. The Lobos allowed 172.2 rushing YPG last season (103rd in FBS) and now have just six starters back from that unit.
Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction
Montana State is clearly the more talented team, but laying double-digits on an FCS team against an FBS team is always risky. The Bobcats should be able to control this game with their ground attack and experienced defense, but strange things happen in these Week 0 FCS-FBS matchups.
Home field advantage and Montana’s State unfamiliarity of FBS opponent could allow the Lobos to hang around within this inflated 11.5-point spread. You have to remember oddsmakers originally set this line at MSU -4.5. It’s simply too inflated now.
One trend supporting a New Mexico cover is that a home FBS team hosting an FCS team in their season opener has covered in three of five instances. I think the Lobos will rally at home in Mendenhall’s coaching debut to keep this one competitive.
MTST vs NM Pick:
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.