The horse racing broadcaster offers his four picks from around the UK on Saturday along with a stable tracker update.
Cavalry charge time at the weekend with the Ayr Silver and Gold Cups starring in the nine race ITV line up along with plenty of Pattern race action from Newbury.
RAMAZAN (15:35 Ayr) ran a blinder in the Ayr Gold Cup last year as a three year old and comes here off the back of an excellent second in the Great St. Wilfrid at Ripon where he raced on the opposite side to the winner. A central draw in stall 14 means he is not committed to either side and frenetic large field handicaps have so far seemed to suit him better than conditions races.
In the Ayr Silver Cup, BERGERAC (14:25 Ayr) can make a bold bid to carry top weight to victory after running better than it may appear from the form figures in his last two runs. Drawn the wrong side at York where he fared best in the unfavoured stands side group, he then was too close to a strong pace in the Portland. He was 18th in the race last year when drawn high yet was first home in his small group of 6 who had little chance. He is drawn on the opposite side this time around and deserves a change of fortune in terms of being drawn in the correct place.
Elsewhere on the card, REVICH (13:15 Ayr) has an excellent record in this race and even though he comes here with a string of duck eggs against his name, this is highly likely to have been the target once again. He is now eight years of age but has won the race twice off marks of 92 and 95 and placed second, also off 95 in between those two victories. He loves a target to run at and off a mark of 88 this time around, is clearly well enough treated if the fire still burns anything like as brightly.
Away from Ayr, the most interesting horse is CHORUS (16:30 Newmarket) who went too hard on her handicap debut at York and can be seen to much better effect here. A bit of cut in the ground may suit as well as she is likely to stay further than this in time so it would be good if the emphasis was on stamina.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
A couple of riders heading for tracks why they have good career records in terms of winners ridden compared to market expectations.
Newbury – Jason Watson (25/173 A/E 1.42)
Wolverhampton – Raul Da Silva (42/404 A/E 1.37)
STABLE TRACKER UPDATE
After Kinross scored last Saturday, a quiet week with just two runners with We’re Reunited having the last of the three runs and being well beaten at 14/1 at Bath and Al Anoud meeting trouble in a tough Listed race assignment at Yarmouth at 25/1 but showing enough to offer hope for his two remaining runs.
We’re Reunited is removed and there are no new additions as the lack of runners still mean there are plenty on the list with three due to run on both Friday and Saturday. Friday first:
Against The Wind (15:05 Ayr) where the return to 5f will suit.
Katey Kontent (15:40 Ayr) which appears to be an attempt to get black type which could negatively impact his mark going forward, which is a worry.
Consolidation (16:00 Kempton) who is clearly the form pick especially as New Century, who beat him at Doncaster, won a Grade 1 in Canada last weekend.
The three running on Saturday are:
ENFJAAR (13:50 Ayr) who was a good thing beaten at Goodwood flying home late and then on the first run for the tracker got held a bit wide in a Group race at York over 1f shorter which turned into a bit of a sprint. The return to 10f suits and a better draw and hopefully better gallop should see him very competitive.
CHILLINGHAM (14:05 Newbury) has a big chance based on his run in the Ebor at York where he did too much too soon. He raced too keenly and hopefully this time will be dropped in from stall 15 rather than attempting to go forward. There are heavy showers forecast and any rain would improve his chances.
VINTAGE CLARETS (16:15 Chester) is another mud lover and despite a tricky draw can find the leaders coming back to him up the home straight. The return to 5f with more cut in the ground should both see him step up on his Portland run and he is attractively handicapped for an Autumn campaign.
Removed: We’re Reunited and Kinross (after winning last weekend).
Additions: None.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024 (Actual Winners/Expected Winners A/E Ratio Par = 1.00)
SELECTIONS – 52/51.14 A/E 1.02
STABLE TRACKER – 24/26.64 A/E 0.90
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES – 50/50.47 A/E 0.99
OVERALL PERFORMANCE – 126/128.25 A/E 0.98
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