The horse racing broadcaster offers up his thoughts for every race on Tuesday at Cheltenham, including how Constitution Hill’s rivals may try to take on the Champion Hurdle favourite.
And so it begins. After all the talking, the first day of the Cheltenham Festival has now taken shape and, with Lossiemouth ducking the Champion Hurdle, there will be four short-priced favourites on Tuesday.
Bear in mind the potential impact of roll ups as the day progresses. If the early favourites win, be prepared to be flexible in your Cheltenham betting approach depending on how the day unfolds and what we learn about the ground.
13:30 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
Kopek Des Bordes is without doubt the potential future superstar among this year’s novice hurdle divisions. He was really impressive at the Dublin Racing Festival, where his jumping was so much more assured and he dismantled the field despite the annoying attentions of a loose horse.
The key word, however, is ‘potential’. On the first of his two runs he was clumsy at his hurdles and he has been buzzy enough in the preliminaries for a hood to be fitted. I discussed the hood statistics in more depth last week (2/92 since 2015 vs expected winners of 6.70, A/E 0.30) and even though both of the winners were Willie Mullins trained horses – including Gaelic Warrior in a first-time hood last year – the yard ‘s own record in that period remains a negative (2/42 vs Expected 3.91, A/E 0.51)
The opposition are no slouches, either. Romeo Coolio was second in the Bumper last season and has improved on all his starts over hurdles this campaign. The fact he has shown he can handle the Festival is a plus and he looks the most solid each-way alternative.
Rarely does Paul Townend end up on the wrong one for the stable in Grade 1, races so William Munny may be the other to fill the frame. As he wears the colours that Michael O’Sullivan wore when winning this race on Marine Nationale, it is quite possible he will attract support as that narrative will get plenty of publicity on the build-up to the roar.
I don’t intend to get involved at this stage, and maybe not at all, until that piece of the jigsaw as to how Kopek Des Bordes handles events beforehand slots into place.
One thing I will be paying plenty of attention to is the time the race is run in. Every year there is lots of speculation as to how the ground will ride, and this will provide a massive clue as to the answer. A time around the 3m 45s clocked by Constitution Hill and Altior will mean it is closer to good ground – and in their cases also a good race! Around 3m 50s, and we are in good-to-soft territory, closer to 4 minutes we are talking soft, and if heading towards 4m 10s then heavy. The clue both as to the deep ground – and a poor renewal – was there for all to see 12 months ago when Slade Steel clocked 4m 12.87s.
I really hope Kopek Des Bordes proves himself a class apart, but as regards a betting strategy the time will be of more use than the result in a race where the market looks about right.
14:00 ARKLE CHASE
This one is much simpler for me, as I think MAJBOROUGH / will win. This is partly because – rightly or wrongly – I just don’t think L’Eau Du Sud is good enough. He pressed on early enough at Warwick but looked very tired late on, and even though I am sure he will be ridden more conservatively this time I still think the petrol gauge will be empty by the last.
Majborough must overcome the 0/16 five-year-old record since the 5lb weight allowance was abolished in 2017, but he has always looked unusually physically developed for one of his age. Granted, there will be a couple of fences where accurate leaps are crucial – likely three and two out – as this is probably not going to be furiously run.
For those not wanting to back an odds-on favourite, seek out the betting without Majborough markets as both Jango Baie and Only By Night offer potential ways of taking on L’Eau Du Sud.
14:40 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
One of my favourite races of the Festival, and always one I like to get involved in.
Regular readers will know I have been in the HAPPYGOLUCKY / camp since the word go. This race is good for repeat runners, and Happygolucky finished second to Vintage Clouds off a higher mark in 2021. Injury has very much got in the way since, but he has been dropped in that absence and showed enough on his sole run this season – and his first for Mel Rowley – to signal this was the likely target. Mel Rowley nearly won with a switcher from Kim Bailey at last year’s Festival in Kyntara, and they are a yard that still fly a bit under the radar.
He is clearly fragile and that is a risk, especially if the times suggest quicker than quoted ground, but on Day 1 it is highly likely that it will be watered to ride good-to-soft and that should be fine.
I am not overly impressed that Crebilly turns up here instead of the Plate as he was another of my handicappers of the week. I will have a saver on him but with more fences to negotiate and a query at the trip he is not my top pick.
Katate Dori will find the hustle and bustle of this putting pressure on his jumping early but is a progressive young chaser, while Whistle Stop Tour comes from a yard with a good record in the race and also deserves respect.
15:20 MARES’ HURDLE
A bit frustrating, here, as having identified Joyeuse as a potential supplementary entry quite early on I was very much hoping both Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth would contest the Champion Hurdle.
Lossiemouth’s presence means I am happy to sit this one out and invest a bit more in the Ultima. She may well prove far too good for this field and her price could look very generous, but the fact they have changed course from the target they had been training for all season puts doubts in my head.
Joyeuse can make the frame and so I will let that ride, but won’t be topping up.
16:00 CHAMPION HURDLE
Earlier events will likely dictate how short Constitution Hill will start here, but if he is anything like his form of two years ago I think he wins. His own constitution, rather than his rivals, is my only worry.
Brighterdaysahead was all the talk of last year’s preview circuit before being beaten by Golden Ace and I am still to be fully convinced she is up to challenging Constitution Hill, even with the overly generous Mares allowance. The game plan will be like Christmas – King of Kingsfield to take her as far as he can and then for her to press on for home and try and run the finish out of Constitution Hill. Personally, I think she will just set it up for him and those ridden quietly could be the ones to press for the frame.
Cheekpieces are applied to State Man (Willie Mullins is 1/25, Expected 1.48, A/E 0.68 with cheekpieced runners at the Festival), which further convinces me he is on the decline, and as Brighterdaysahead’s form largely revolves around State Man this further increases my doubts about her.
I will check out the each-way price of Winter Fog in the ‘Without Constitution Hill’ market, as if they do go a ridiculous gallop he could be the one to pick up the pieces. As an aside, this is why they should have run Lossiemouth here as that scenario would be the one that could have seen her to good effect as well.
16:40 FRED WINTER HANDICAP HURDLE
This is the extra race on ITV on Tuesday and I will have my hands full calling it, so not really interested in getting involved.
Stencil is the most interesting runner as he represents the East India Dock form line. Andy Holding has this race as giving a really high time figure and so made a very cogent case for effectively doubling up the pair to get more value out of the angle. It is, however, a big field to negotiate and I am happy to pass it over.
17:20 NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
Very comfortable to stick with GERICAULT ROQUE 11/1 here despite the horse halving in price since being on our list of handicappers to back a fortnight ago.
Despite never having won over fences, he has run some excellent races in defeat, most notably in the Ultima and Coral Gold Cup. Like Happygolucky, he has had his opportunities curtailed through injury and Windsor was never going to play to his strengths on his return. Hopefully he holds together physically as if he does, he is a big player off a very favourable mark.
Haiti Couleurs has an obvious chance and Kyntara is well treated on his Pertemps second last Festival, but has just not looked like a natural chaser.
Best of luck for Day 1. Keep an eye on that first race time and how the off-course liabilities do or don’t mount up on the four short-priced favourites.