It looked like the Orlando Magic were going to knock the Cleveland Cavaliers out of the playoffs, turning a 3-2 series deficit into a 4-3 win. They led the Cavs on the road by as many as 18 points in the first half of Game 7, but then Donovan Mitchell put Cleveland on his back and led a raucous comeback. He made a logo three-ball early in the third quarter to trim the gap to just four points and sent the momentum back in the direction of the home team, and the Cavs rolled from there to a 106-94 win. The last time the Cavaliers made it to the second round was 2019, and the last time they made it that far without LeBron James was all the way back in 1984. Mitchell had 50 points in the Game 6 loss but returned to post 39 in Game 7, giving him 89 total points in Games 6 and 7, the second-most by any player in any NBA series, trailing only the 90 points that Allen Iverson scored in 2001. How far can the Cavs go in the NBA Conferences Championship? Read on to get our picks for the finals in both conferences.
NBA Conferences Picks and Predictions for the Eastern and Western Conference Finals
Eastern Conference
Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks
The Knicks didn’t have much depth in their first-round rotation, but they still stopped a Philadelphia 76ers team that had Joel Embiid back on the floor. He wasn’t at his best, battling Bell’s palsy and a migraine, as well as that surgically repaired knee, but the Knicks were ready. Jalen Brunson started the series slowly but had at least 39 points every night in Games 3-6. Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart all contributed, and the Knicks got offensive boards on 37% of their misses in the series. That commitment to effort and physical play makes them a tough opponent for anyone.
The Pacers benefited from the fact that Milwaukee did not have Giannis Antetokounmpo for the entire first round and also missed Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton for parts of their first-round win, but advance they did. They led the NBA in offense during the regular season; despite the slowing of their pace in the playoffs, they still put up 119 points per 100 possessions. Tyrese Haliburton had the game-winner in Game 3, but overall he shot less than 30% from downtown and averaged just 16 points per game. Pascal Siakam filled the gap, averaging 22 points per game and shot 55% from the floor for the entire series. Their defense, though, allowed 117 points per 100 possessions, a number the Knicks will exploit.
NBA Pick: Knicks in five
Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers
The Celtics look to be down Kristaps Porzingis going into the second round, but Al Horford filled in nicely, and the Celtics have plenty of other scoring options. Boston did lose one game in the first round to Miami, but the team responded by finding a new gear and dominating the rest of the way. They posted a +17 net rating for the first round, the best of any of the eight series winners – even better than those of Minnesota and Oklahoma City, who swept their first-round series. Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown all averaged more than 20 points against Miami.
Donovan Mitchell posted 89 points in Games 6 and 7 combined, but he can’t carry the Cavaliers all by himself past Boston. Jarrett Allem may be able to return, but the team definitely needs more out of Evan Mobley and Darius Garland. The Cavaliers did play some shutdown defense at times against Orlando, but they still needed seven games to oust the Magic.
NBA Conferences Pick: Celtics in five
Western Conference
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
The Timberwolves not only ran the Phoenix Suns right out of the postseason, but they followed that up with a Game 1 win in Denver. They have posted a +13 net rating through their five playoff games so far, and they lead the league in the playoffs with 122 points per 100 possessions. They’ve had five clutch minutes so far – and their offensive rating during those minutes has been an amazing 180. Most of this is due to the rise of Anthony Edwards. He has 33 points per game in the playoffs and 10.8 points per game in the fourth quarter.
The Nuggets trailed the Lakers for more than 70% of their first-round series but finished with a +41 net ratings in the three clutch games. The fact that they trailed for so long, though, showed that they couldn’t take control, and their loss to Minnesota shows us that they can’t just flip the switch against anyone. The Nuggets aren’t playing at 100% yet; Nikola Jokic has been terrific but has struggled with turnovers, and Jamal Murray is averaging just 23 points per game. He did have two game-winners against the Lakers, but you have to be close enough at the end for game-winners to win games.
NBA Conferences Pick: Nuggets in six
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks
The Thunder swept the Pelicans out of the playoffs and have spent the last week or so waiting for the Mavericks-Clippers series to end. It helped that the Pelicans didn’t have Zion Williamson, but the Thunder had a top-five defense and offense over the course of the regular season. They clamped down on New Orleans with a 93.5 defensive rating, and Jalen Williams contributed 21 points, seven boards and five assists per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had some difficult shooting nights but still has an average of 27 points per game.
The Mavericks have lost three-point threat Maxi Kleber for the playoffs with a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. However, they have plenty of offense to compensate for his absence. They beat a tough Clippers team that only had Kawhi Leonard on the floor for one game in the six-game series. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have built a dangerous rhythm, with Doncic pacing the offense early and Irving taking over down the stretch; Irving’s clutch shooting down the stretch in Games 5 and 6 showed why he is 13-0 in closeout games all time. The duo scored 56 points combined per game, with P.J. Washington coming in third at 11 per game. The defense held the Clippers below 110 points per 100 possessions, with Derrick Jones Jr and Daniel Gafford leading the defensive effort. However, Doncic and Irving joined the fray on that end of the court too.
NBA Conferences Pick: Mavericks in six
NBA Conferences and Odds to Win NBA Championship
- Boston Celtics +110
- Denver Nuggets +500
- Minnesota Timberwolves +450
- Oklahoma City Thunder +850
- Dallas Mavericks +900
- New York Knicks +1100
- Cleveland Cavaliers +5000
- Indiana Pacers +5000
Mark your calendars!
The #NBAFinals presented by @YouTubeTV tip off one month from today on ABC. https://t.co/dtNuckTx2S
— NBA (@NBA) May 6, 2024
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