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Let’s win with the NFC Divisional Round Picks! On Sunday, the Washington Commanders picked up the franchise’s first win in almost 20 years, taking advantage of a late turnover to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road.
The team finished 4-13 a year ago, but a new head coach (Dan Quinn) and a new quarterback (rookie Jayden Daniels) have led a rise in team culture that has the Commanders headed to Detroit full of optimism ahead of their divisional playoff matchup with the top-seeded Lions.
The combination of Quinn’s energy and Daniels’ determination, along with influence from free-agent veterans known for leadership qualities, has given the NFC East a second legitimate contender to go along with the Philadelphia Eagles.
The last time Washington had a 13-win season (including the postseason) was 1991.
Washington has won six in a row, and the last five have either come on the last play of the game or the last play from scrimmage. Can they go to Detroit and pull off the shocker?
That’s just one question we’ll answer as we take a closer look at your best sports betting picks from the two NFC divisional matchups.
NFC Divisional Round Picks – NFL Odds Today
Washington Commanders (+10) at Detroit Lions (O/U 55.5)
NFC Divisional Moneylines: Washington +400 / Detroit -575
NFC Prediction: Washington to cover.
David Montgomery
The Lions should get tailback Montgomery back after a knee injury that, at one point, looked like it would end his season. That brings a fresh pair of legs back to spell Jahmyr Gibbs, who has done a sensational job in Montgomery’s absence. Both of these tailbacks went over 1,000 yards for the season, so Gibbs is certainly no backup.
Kevin Zeitler & Terrion Arnold
However, having two quality backs able to take turns pounding the ball is definitely a nice luxury. The Lions also expect to have guard Zeitler and cornerback Arnold back on the field after injuries knocked them out of the Week 18 win over Minnesota.
However, the Lions are physical up front on both sides of the ball, which means they should be able to establish the running game. Pairing Gibbs and Montgomery will lead to long, sustained drives. When Washington loads the box to slow down the running attack, then the Lions will find Amon-Ra St. Brown out of the slot or Sam LaPorta in a hole in the zone defense.
Jayden Daniels
Washington will benefit from two different elements of Daniels’ playing style – his ability to hit deep shots down the field and his penchant for taking off outside with the ball.
The Lions should be able to bottle up the Commanders’ power running game, but the Commanders can leverage that strength of the Lions by attacking in other ways. Daniels is only the fourth rookie quarterback in the history of the NFL to start and win at least 13 games, including the playoffs. Expect Daniels to keep Washington close enough to sniff victory.
But what about the point spread?
If you like the Lions to cover, you think they can win by two scores, holding that lead against the onslaught of another late Washington comeback attempt. Detroit was able to turn a 10-9 third-quarter lead over Minnesota into a 31-9 laugher, but I don’t see Daniels faltering and ultimately breaking like Sam Darnold did. Darnold started panicking under pressure and sailing balls high – a trend that he kept going in the loss to the Rams last week.
Daniels has taken heat comparable to what Darnold saw the last two weeks, and while he might not to be delivering magical plays every time out, he has been able to hold more poise, exploit his mobility and deliver more accurate passes when harassed. I like Washington to cover, even as Detroit escapes Ford Field with a ticket to the NFC Championship.
L.A. Rams (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 44)
NFC Divisional Moneylines: Los Angeles +220 / Philadelphia -280
NFC Prediction: Philadelphia to win and cover.
The Rematch
This is a rematch of a Week 12 showdown that saw the Eagles push the Rams all over the field in prime time. Saquon Barkley set a Philadelphia franchise record with 255 rushing yards and scored a pair of touchdowns. The physicality of the Eagles just wore the Rams down, particularly after the intermission. Jalen Hurts found wide receiver A.J. Brown for six catches, 109 yards, and a score. The Eagles likely breathed a sigh of relief when Washington ended Tampa Bay’s season, as the Buccaneers have given the Eagles a hard time in their last few meetings.
The Eagles were the last team to beat the Rams in a competitive game, and as Philadelphia watched that Rams-Vikings film, they had to be impressed by the pressure the Rams were able to put on Sam Darnold and the way they were able to clamp down on Aaron Jones and the running game. Jalen Hurts is 3-0 straight up as a starter in home playoff games, and he has shown a restoration of the same leadership qualities that saw him take the Eagles to the pinnacle of the league in the first half of the 2023 campaign before the team fell off the table.
Los Angeles Offensive
The Rams do have a scary offense. Kyren Williams can pound the ball on the ground. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are dangerous. However, this game won’t be played indoors – it will be in Philadelphia, and the forecast has a mixture of snow, wind and rain. The Rams do pound the ball a lot on offense, and they play a physical brand of football. However, moving the game outside gives the Eagles even more of a home-field advantage that they already had.
It’s true that the Rams sacked Sam Darnold nine times last week, tying an NFL postseason record, and the defense is young and energetic for the Rams – perhaps less likely to feel the effects of blustery weather. However, Sean McVay has gone 10-2 straight up in their last 12 meaningful games (not counting Week 18, when the Rams left a lot of starters on the bench). Also, if we go back to that Week 12 game, yes, the Eagles won, 37-20, but if you look at third-down conversions, that was the only key metric as the Eagles went 9 of 15 while the Rams went 0 for 8.
Philadelphia Offensive
The Eagles’ rushing attack has Kenneth Gainwell and quarterback Jalen Hurts (the carrier in all those Tush Pushes in short yardage situations) along with Barkley. That’s a lot more intimidating than the duo of Aaron Jones and Cam Akers that the Vikings had going last week. The Rams’ rushing offense was just 22nd in EPA per rush (0.03) and 23rd in success rate (59.0%) during the regular season. Those numbers won’t move the ball against the Eagles. I like Philadelphia to win and cover as they get set to head to Detroit the following weekend for a berth in the Super Bowl.
Next up: The Divisional Round. #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/LIqCrSm9JW
— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2025
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