The 2024 season opened up with some of the worst passing performances we’ve ever seen across the league. Through the Sunday slate of games, there have only been 33 passing touchdowns through Week 1, which would be the lowest total the NFL has seen over the last five years, per 33rd Team’s Steve Palazzolo:
Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns
2019 : 61
2020: 52
2021: 61
2022: 51
2023: 37
2024: 33**Pending MNF
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 9, 2024
It just looks like passing has become less efficient, with running the ball taking the early lead in efficiency through the first week of the NFL season:
In response to the NFL becoming more pass-heavy in recent years, many have commented that eventually we would reach a point where it became more efficient to run than pass— and the pendulum would swing the other way.
My friends, we may be rapidly approaching that point. pic.twitter.com/Rxm5XIJnGl
— Jake Grossman (@jakegrossman0) September 9, 2024
So, what happened here? What caused passing in the NFL to take such a major slide in the first week of the season?
Defenses are winning the chess match
Football strategy can be seen a lot like chess, with moves and countermoves being made with the players as the queens and rooks on the chessboard. So far, defenses are winning this match. With the continued usage of two-high shells, it negates the explosive downfield passing, forcing teams to use the run game or quick underneath game. We’re seeing a lot less passing overall, with teams opting to run that damn ball in order to force teams out of those light boxes and two-high shells.
Pass % in Week 1 over the past 6 seasons:
2024: 60.3%
2023: 62.1%
2022: 63.2%
2021: 63.9%
2020: 61.2%
2019: 63.8%I think this is because we have officially left the QB golden age & defenses are playing more conservatively (baiting more runs/short passes) https://t.co/bwmEB8T2hm
— CoachSwami (@Moonlightswami) September 9, 2024
Because of how conservative defenses are calling the game, it’s forcing offenses to either eat their vegetables via the quick game or make explosives via running the football. Offenses have to be able to throw the next punch.
Lack of preseason reps
I know, I know. “Preseason isn’t important! The joint practices during the week are what matters!” While I partially agree with you, getting up to game speed isn’t something that just can be done in an instant.
If you think about all the teams that played well in this first week, most of their starters played in the preseason. Kansas City played their starters for at least the first couple of drives in all three games. Houston played their guys a lot, and they all looked like they didn’t miss a step. While it’s not critical that your starters get all the preseason reps, joint practices can only do so much. A lot of teams (cough cough, Cincinnati) use Week 1 as basically the fourth preseason game, and it leads to performances like theirs. Not playing at all in the preseason then expecting to come out and play immediately well is a bad process, and we’re seeing the fruits of that.
Playing QB in the NFL is really f****** hard
This goes back into the first point, and it could just stand by itself. Playing QB in the NFL is as hard as it’s ever been, because of how fluid everything is. Simulated pressures are all the rage; what you see pre-snap isn’t going to be the same thing post-snap. It stresses the mind of signal callers who have to diagnose the play, get to the right guy all in about three seconds because if you don’t you’re getting crushed by a 270 pound defensive linemen. Defenses are making it hard on the QB by throwing everything and the kitchen sink at them, while offenses ask more of the QB in accessing middle of the field targets and moving underneath defenders.
Overall, this should be the biggest takeaway. Playing QB in the NFL is hard, and offenses should make it easier on them by running that damn ball.