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NFL Week 12 Odds for 2024 Season: Expert Picks, Analysis


NFL Week 12 | The bizarre 2024 campaign of the New York Jets continued this past week as they fell to the Indianapolis Colts, 28-27.

New York Jets

Remember when Robert Saleh had that Jets defense shutting down opponents every week? Well, Saleh was shown the gate, and that defensive intensity seems to have followed him.

In the last two minutes of the loss, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was able to mount a six-play, 70-yard drive to get the score.

Then the Jets got the ball back into the hands of Mr. Hail Mary, Aaron Rodgers, but he couldn’t make good decisions.

That wasted the first game in which Jets tailback Breece Hall had scored a rushing and receiving touchdown in the same contest. He had 121 yards from scrimmage, but the Jets couldn’t win.

New York did set another franchise mark, this time for using four kickers in the last four games, as Anders Carlson came off the couch to make both of his field goal attempts, including a 58-yarder that was his career best.

The Jets didn’t think they’d be using Carlson until Kansas City plucked Spencer Shrader off the practice squad on Thursday to replace Harrison Butker.

What is next for Joe Namath’s storied team? We will see. Meanwhile, don’t miss our top sports betting picks for Week 12 in the NFL.

 

NFL Week 12: Top Games with Odds & Expert Analysis

 

TNF Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns

When: Thursday, November 21, 8:20 pm ET, Amazon Prime Video

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 36.5

The Cleveland Browns’ O-line has imploded as Jameis Winston took eight sacks in losses to Baltimore and the Chargers. Cleveland is just 1-4 straight up at home, although that one win did come against Baltimore in their first meeting. The Steelers have only allowed more than 17 points in two games, and Russell Wilson has the offense moving enough to get wins. Against Baltimore, the Steelers only got six field goals, but that was enough to get the win thanks to a swarming defense. We have a full-length article just on this matchup, but we feel really confident about this pick.

NFL Pick: Steelers to win and cover.

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Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears

When: Sunday, November 24, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 39.5

The Minnesota Vikings have 35 sacks so far this season, ranking third in the league. Sam Darnold has a 99.9 passer rating away from U.S. Bank Stadium, so the Chicago pass rush might be able to force him into more poor decisions. The Bears have a new OC in Thomas Brown, and the Chicago attack looked better against Green Bay, even if that last-second field goal got blocked. Is Caleb Williams good enough to lead Chicago to an upset win here? I don’t see it.

NFL Pick: Vikings to win and cover.

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Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts

When: Sunday, November 24, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 50.5

The Lions just might hang a 2024 AFC SOUTH CHAMPS banner at Ford Field after this game, as they have beaten the other three teams in this division by a combined score of 130-49. Their 52-6 win over Jacksonville last week was the largest margin of victory for any Detroit Lions team in any game.

The Colts did see a resurgence from quarterback Anthony Richardson, who bounced back from his two-week benching by putting up 304 yards and three touchdowns in that win over the Jets. However, the Lions’ defense is still a juggernaut, while the Jets don’t really have a legit scheme right now. It’s true that Indy is 5-2 as an underdog, but they won’t be able to run the ball on Detroit, and the Lions aren’t taking prisoners this year.

NFL Pick: Lions to win and cover.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at N.Y. Giants

When: Sunday, November 24, 1:00 pm ET, CBS

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 42

The Giants are sending Daniel Jones to the bench in favor of Tommy DeVito as they come out of their bye week. That should show you that the G-men are pointedly looking to 2025, which usually means finding ways to get a higher draft pick. The Buccaneers come to Gotham on a four-game losing streak, but they’ve been feisty and competitive – and their losses have come against much better teams. Baker Mayfield should keep the Buccaneers’ offense on track, and while the Giants have a physical defense, they will wear down.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers to win and cover.

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Dallas Cowboys (+10) at Washington Commanders

When: Sunday, November 24, 1:00 pm ET, FOX

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 45

Dallas only trailed Houston at home, 20-10, in the second half on Monday night. Brandon Aubrey nailed a 64-yard field goal, but a penalty on Houston gave Dallas a fresh set of downs. They drove deep into the red zone, only to see things stall. On 4th and 2, Dallas coach Mike McCarthy had a chance to make it a one-possession game with a field goal, but he decided to roll those dice.

The Cowboys turned the ball over on downs; the Texans scored the next 14 points to win a 34-10 laugher, making it six straight games in which Dallas has trailed by at least 20 points in a home game. Cooper Rush isn’t that bad at quarterback for Dallas, but he’s clearly rusty, and his offensive line took three more major hits as Tyler Smith, Zack Martin and Tyler Guyton (who hurt his shoulder while running the ball, of all things) all went down to injury. The Commanders have a mobile quarterback who can shred Dallas through the air and run by them on the ground.

NFL Pick: Commanders to win and cover.

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Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

When: Sunday, November 24, 4:05 pm ET, CBS

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 41

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has 522 passing yards, six touchdown passes, a 79.3% pass completion rate – and, perhaps most impressive of all, zero interceptions in his last two starts. In their last four games as underdogs of fewer than seven points, the Raiders have covered just once. Denver won the home meeting this year, 34-18 – and Nix has gotten much better since then.

NFL Pick: Broncos to win and cover.

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San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers

When: Sunday, November 24, 4:25 pm ET, FOX

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 47.5

The 49ers are just 2-4 straight up in one-score games this season. The Packers average 2 ½ sacks per game. They might try to amp up the pressure on Brock Purdy, but Purdy has a healthy Christian McCaffrey back, and the 49ers have their backs against the wall in the tight NFC West race. This could be an example of the 49ers continuing to have the Packers’ number at Lambeau Field, or Jordan Love could play a consistent 60-minute game, and the Packers could roll.

NFL Pick: 49ers to cover.

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Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Seattle Seahawks

When: Sunday, November 24, 4:25 pm ET, FOX

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 47.5

In the NFC West, every team is either right at .500 or within a game either way. The Cardinals come out of their bye week after demolishing Chicago and the N.Y. Jets. Seattle has climbed back to .500, even though they only have a 2-4 record in front of their home fans. Geno Smith could work that terrific late-game magic, or Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr could run the Seahawks right out of their own stadium. I like the Cardinals to get another crazy NFC West road win.

NFL Pick: Cardinals to win and cover.

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MNF Baltimore Ravens (-3) at L.A. Chargers

When: Monday, November 25, 8:15 pm ET, ABC/ESPN

NFL totals Week 12: O/U 48

If you were looking for a blueprint for how to slow down the Baltimore offense, the swarming, physical Pittsburgh defense just showed the league how to do it. The Chargers beat a desperate Cincinnati team last week by pushing to a 27-6 lead and then doing just enough to avoid a shocking comeback loss. If the Chargers can play a complete four-quarter game, they can beat the Ravens in prime time.

NFL Pick: Chargers to cover.

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