This evening, the 18 teams comprising the 2024 NCAA Division I field hockey tournament will be released. The Tournament Committee will be taking the 10 conference tournament champions, selecting eight at-large bids, then put them into the single-elimination competition which will finish off in two weeks at Phyllis Ocker Field at the University of Michigan.
We’ve done a number of thought exercises over the years, trying to figure out who is going to make the final 18, and it is something we’ve been able to predict with frightening accuracy. One year, we had 18 out of 18 teams and we were able to predict one bracket with only four teams out of place.
How do we do this? It’s a matter of seeing what has happened in the past, and knowing some of the NCAA criteria for choosing teams. We try to figure out what makes sense geographically, also knowing that, occasionally, one of the four brackets will have a different host from the team that is the top seed in its quadrant. That hasn’t happened in a while, but will keep an eye out.
In addition, we try to keep teams within 700 miles of a regional hub whenever possible. This comes very much into play today with the number of good teams in New England.
As of this morning, half of the tournament bids are known. We have North Carolina out of the ACC, St. Joseph’s out of the A-10, Miami out of the Mid-American, Fairfield out of the Northeast Conference, and Lafayette out of the Patriot League.
This leaves today’s competition, with the America East, Big East, Coastal Athletic Conference, Ivy League, and Big Ten to be determined.
So, let’s start building. I think the top four seeds of the competition are going to be North Carolina, Virginia, Northwestern, and Boston College. Yep, three ACC schools — they are back in the ascendancy this year.
I believe that the ACC will go five deep with four at-large bids, and the Big Ten will go three deep with two at-large bids.
The one bracketbuster game today, I think, is the Big East final between Connecticut and Temple. UConn is in whatever it does, something which cannot be said for the Owls. They need to win the game in order to make the NCAA Tournament, since they would be 12-8 with a defeat, and would have a three-game losing streak (to Lafayette, Villanova, and Yale) in their final seven games of the 2024 season.
If Temple wins, that will likely burst a team which is on the NCAA Tournament bubble — that somewhat undefinable category where a team may have enough bona fides to make the tournament.
So, who would be on the bubble? I think that bubble, right now, comprises the three teams which are currently ranked 14th, 15th, and 16th in Ratings Percentage Index as calculated this morning on FieldHockeyCorner.com:
| Team | RPI |
| Massachusetts | 0.598 |
| Ohio State | 0.594 |
| Drexel | 0.583 |
While RPI (that formula that calculates strength of schedule based upon opponents schedules as well as the opponents’ opponents) is not the determining factor as to which team(s) make it into a particular tournament, we have seen the field hockey folks go by RPI with more regularity than other NCAA committees.
This being said, we do notice that a number of excellent teams — Rutgers, Penn State, Stanford, Louisville, and Wake Forest — are not eligible for the tournament because they did not finish with a .500 record. These teams would actually comprise a fantastic season-ending tournament; perhaps a chance to bring back the ECAC Tournament?
Anyway, below is our worm’s eye view of what could be a Division I bracket:
EVANSTON REGIONAL
16. Miami
17. CAA winner (Delaware or Monmouth)
1. Northwestern (host)
8. Michigan
9. St. Joseph’s
CHARLOTTESVILLE REGIONAL
12. Duke
5. Maryland
4. Virginia (host)
13. Princeton
BOSTON REGIONAL
14. America East winner (Vermont or New Hampshire)
3. Boston College (host)
6. Connecticut
11. Harvard
CHAPEL HILL REGIONAL
15. Lafayette
18. Fairfield
2. North Carolina (host)
7. Syracuse
10. Temple or a bubble team
Over to you, Tournament Committee.