Paul Skenes’ late start may cost him history

Leader: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (-350)

The major league home run and RBI leader, Judge is simply playing with an unmatched level of power this season. Paired with a .305 average, the only thing that can stop his path to a second MVP are the nagging injuries he’s been lucky to avoid so far.

Sleeper: José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians (+5000)

Not only is Ramírez second in the AL with 77 RBI, trailing Judge by just eight, he also has 18 stolen bases, placing him above everyone but Bobby Witt Jr. in the MVP conversation. With the Guardians on track to win the Central, he’d be a fitting MVP in the event Judge collapses.

Leader: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (-375)

I can’t say I’m surprised to see Ohtani sitting atop the odds list after predicting he’d win the award before the season, but it is remarkable how he’s seemed to kick his already elite offensive production to another gear. Hitting .316 with 29 homers and 69 RBI, a triple crown is not out of the question for Ohtani.

Sleeper: Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (+2500)

The leader of my last MVP ladder, Ozuna has seen his odds slide from +1000 to +2500 in the last month. But that’s less about his production and more about Ohtani’s rise. Ozuna is still the NL RBI leader with just three fewer home runs, and Ohtani’s candidacy opens the door for a DH to come out on top — even if it’s not him.

Leader: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (-150)

Skubal doesn’t lack in any area as far as what you’re looking for in a Cy Young candidate. He leads the AL in ERA and wins above replacement, and he’s third in strikeouts, with a 10-3 record to boot. He’s the clear front-runner.

Sleeper: Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (+2800)

The White Sox are awful. Like really really awful. So why am I going with Crochet here? Because been an incredible bright spot and his MLB-leading 150 strikeouts are hard to ignore. A 0.95 WHIP also suggests he can drop his 3.02 ERA even lower and make this a real contest.

Leader: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves (+115)

Well, I guess it’s safe to say Chris Sale is back. He’s been the ace of an overall fantastic staff in Atlanta, jumping out to an major league-best 13 wins behind a 2.70 ERA that ranks second only to teammate Reynaldo López in the NL and 140 strikeouts that rank third.

Sleeper: Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers (+3000)

With three more strikeouts than Sale in one fewer innings pitched, Glasnow only needs to trim his 3.47 ERA to play his way into a closer competition. But at 30-1 odds, he’s a great value play in what’s lining up to be a career year.

Leader: Luis Gil, New York Yankees (+200)

OK, so technically Gil isn’t the leader in terms of odds, as Wyatt Langford is favored over him at +120. But I’d give the edge to the pitcher if the season ended today. Gil is 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 10.4 K per nine innings for a team with the most wins in the AL.

Sleeper: Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics (+1600)

The rookie batters in the AL have been perfectly fine this season, and I’d even lean Ceddanne Rafaela over Wyatt Langford if I had to take one for the award, but I’m sticking with pitching for my sleeper because Miller has been lights out for the A’s. He’s one of just five AL pitchers with at least 15 saves and a sub-2.30 ERA.

Leader: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (-1200)

Judging by the odds (and the eye test), this race is over. Skenes is cruising to the NL Rookie of the Year with a performance that would be Cy Young worthy if he had requisite innings pitched to be a real candidate. But he’s done more than enough to lead the rookie race, going 6-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA and 12.1 K/9 rate through his first 66 innings.

Sleeper: Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (+2800)

At this point, anyone you take is a sleeper, so the best pick is whoever you think will finish second, in the event Skenes suffers some unfortunate injury that knocks him out of contention. For me, that player is Imanaga, who’s been Chicago’s best player.