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Keep reading to keep an eye on the NBA Betting Top Games for Week 12 | We’re about a month away from the NBA trade deadline, and there are several teams who consider themselves contenders but could use a boost to their rosters in order to make that vision into reality.
One of them is the Minnesota Timberwolves, who made the Western Conference Finals a year ago before trading away Karl-Anthony Towns in the off-season.
They’re now relying on Mike Conley to jump-start the offense, and he’s probably a year or two pastimes when that’s a realistic assignment.
Another team looking for a boost is the Sacramento Kings, as they shipped Harrison Barnes to San Antonio in the off-season and brought in DeMar DeRozan.
In addition to the re-signing of Malik Monk, bringing in DeRozan was supposed to jolt a team that won 46 games in 2023-24.
Things haven’t worked out that way, as they are currently outside the top ten in the Western Conference and have shown head coach Mike Brown the gate.
They can’t trade a first-round pick until 2028 because of earlier picks they owe the Atlanta Hawks.
They also have the contracts of Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles to dangle to other teams, and one rumor has them dealing with Brooklyn to bring forward Cameron Johnson west.
Finally, there is Miami, looking to deal Jimmy Butler, who is currently under suspension for “conduct detrimental to the team.”
That suspension hasn’t fixed problems, as they lost their first game without Butler to Utah…by 36. Heading into the first full week of 2025, let’s break down some sports betting opportunities.
NBA Betting Top Games in Week 12 | Tuesday, January 7, 2025 Season
L.A. Lakers (-6.5) at Dallas Mavericks (O/U 218.5)
NBA Pick: Lakers to win and cover
When: 7:30 pm ET, TNT
Los Angeles
The Lakers (20-15) head to Dallas (20-15) looking to bounce back from a 119-115 loss in Houston their last time out on Sunday. They went 3-1 in their home stand after Christmas, but they have the interesting position of holding sixth place in the West while posting a negative point differential on the season. Dorian Finney-Smith has started to warm up for the Lakers, going just 2 for 10 in his first two games for the team but then going 8 of 14 for the weekend.
During his 94 minutes on the floor, the Lakers have outscored the opposition by 12.8 points per 100 possessions. He’s been playing most of his time at the four next to Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves is also taking on more responsibility as a ball handler. Over the last seven games, he has played 234 minutes, and the Lakers have scored 128.5 points per 100 possessions during that time.
He’s sat on the bench for 54 minutes, and the Lakers’ offense has dipped to 82.9 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. They’ll also have a rest advantage over the Mavericks, who will have to play without Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving, both on the shelf.
Dallas
Since Luka went down with a calf strain, the Mavericks have gone 1-5, dropping the West standings and now even with the Lakers. They’ve played three games without both Doncic and Irving and have lost both of them. That’s made more time for Spencer Dinwiddie, but he’s only shot 34% over the last six games and now has an effective field goal percentage of 46.6%, the worst in his eight seasons in which he has hoisted at least 200 shots.
After they play the Lakers, they host Portland and Denver, so things don’t get any easier. While the Mavericks still have plenty of talent, beating the Lakers at this point seems like a tall order.
Boston Celtics (-5.5) at Denver Nuggets (O/U 236)
NBA Pick: Nuggets to cover
When: 10:00 pm ET, TNT
Boston
The Celtics (26-10) make their fourth stop on their Western swing. They won their first two games, including a big 23-point shutdown of Houston on Friday that saw Kristaps Porziņģis return to the floor. However, they went down to the juggernaut in Oklahoma City on Sunday. They only had 27 points on 47 possessions in the second half (0.57 points per possession), leading to the second least efficient in any half for any team this season. Not only did they clank 21 shots from downtown, but they turned the ball over 10 times and only went 3 of 12 on shots in the paint.
Their interior defense, though, is improving. Their opposition has only managed 44.1% shooting in the paint over their last four contests combined, a drop from a season average of 55.9%. Houston went just 15 of 37 (40.5%) in the paint on Friday, their worst performance on the season. When they lost to Oklahoma City, it was just the third time the Celtics lost a game without being within five points in the last five minutes. They still sit in the top six in both offense and defense, though.
2024-2025 NBA Points Per Game Leaders:
32.3 – Giannis Antetokounmpo
31.5 – Nikola Jokić
31.3 – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
28.1 – Jayson Tatum
26.7 – De’Aaron FoxAll Leaders: https://t.co/pszlTbTDXh
— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) January 6, 2025
Denver
The Nuggets (20-14) have won four of their last five, with the lone setback coming over the weekend during a home-and-home with the San Antonio Spurs over the weekend that saw Nikola Jokić and Victor Wembanyama square off in a pair of epic duels. The Nuggets are still missing Aaron Gordon (calf strain), so the team hasn’t had many opportunities with Gordon, Jokic and Jamal Murray on the floor – just 13 of 34 games so far. Russell Westbrook has remained in the starting lineup and has dished out 84 assists to Jokic alone.
With Westbrook on the floor in place of Gordon, the Nuggets have scored 136 points per 100 possessions, the most prolific lineup of any for Denver that have played a minimum of 100 minutes. When the Celtics arrive, it will be the first game in a home back-to-back for Denver (as the Clippers show up in the Mile High City on Wednesday). The Celtics don’t have any key injuries, but playing at altitude can wreak havoc on traveling teams, and the Nuggets are producing even without Gordon on the floor.
NBA Betting Top Games Miami Heat (+9.5) at Golden State Warriors (O/U 218.5)
NBA Pick: Warriors to win and cover
When: 10:00 pm ET
Miami
The Heat (17-16) have finally learned what the soap opera side of Jimmy Butler can be. He had taken some time away from the team before coming back for two games, but he only had a 13.2% usage rate in a split against New Orleans and Indiana, sitting for the fourth quarter of both games. After he said he wouldn’t be able to find his “joy” again in Miami, the Heat slapped him with a suspension and told the press they would entertain trade offers.
That didn’t motivate his team because they lost to Utah by 36 the next night, and now the Heat are 5-6 without Butler. Particularly awful has been the shooting of Bam Adebayo, who went 0 of 6 from the floor on Saturday and has clanked 17 straight three-point attempts. His two-point percentage and free throw rate are both currently career lows. They are currently on a six-game Western swing and will play 16 of the next 22 on the road. Don’t wager on this game until you see how Miami fares in Sacramento on Monday night, though.
Golden State
The Warriors (18-17) are hovering right around .500. They have gone 3-2 on their six-game home stand that ends on Tuesday. They still don’t have Stephen Curry, but they are 5-2 with him on the shelf. Now Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) is on the shelf, but his drop in efficiency this season makes that less of a problem than it might be.
Moses Moody has gone 12 of 18 from downtown over the last few games, but the Warriors have still scored 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last year, the sixth-biggest drop in the league. That has come against a difficult schedule, though. They do have a rest advantage in the matchup against Miami, as they will have played the night before in Sacramento.
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