The horse racing broadcaster offers up his selections for All Weather Finals Day at Newcastle and Lingfield before looking at the ante-post markets for the 1000 and 2000 Guineas.
All Weather Finals Day, now split between Newcastle and Lingfield, has been a real success in providing not just a suitably high-profile end to the All Weather season but, with its qualifying rules ensuring runners have to have been in action at least three times during the season, it allows regular winter racegoers and punters to build a strong affinity for certain horses. That has contrasted sharply with the ever-fewer appearances of the National Hunt stars during the winter.
Finding winners on Finals Day is tricky because the races are handicaps, so it is a balance between being high enough to qualify – the majority are maximum fields – while still being competitive on the day.
Regular Newcastle viewers will know that a high draw has generally been a significant advantage, with even runners on the round course often making their way right across to the stands rail. CARBINE HARVESTER / (13:50 Newcastle) is therefore ideally drawn in stall 16 to execute the front-running tactics that have served him well this winter. He has an uncomplicated front running style that, coupled with a good attitude, can see him give a bold sight up against the rail.
CLOUD COVER / (14:25 Newcastle) was unlucky on several occasions last season and is one of the best All Weather horses in training. Despite a rating of 103, she has a solid class edge and won over the same course and distance last time. She has a really potent turn of foot, and although she always needs to get the splits at the right time, her tactical speed means that when it does appear she needs no second invitation. Many of her rivals are out of the handicap here and she will take plenty of beating.
ROI DE FRANCE / (15:00 Newcastle) can continue John Gosden’s good week by taking out the mile handicap. Another to be well-drawn close to the stands rail, he will need the breaks as he will race further back in the field, but the stiffer finish and the likelihood of a better pace than he encountered last time at Kempton make him of plenty of interest. He was sent off as short as 17/2 for the Cambridgeshire, a race where the stable have often run a future Group horse, but the ground went against him. He has progressed steadily this winter – clearly with this in mind –  and can deliver under Oisin Murphy.
The sprint handicap at 15:35 is very competitive but somewhat surprisingly doesn’t seem to have a great deal of pace in it, so DILIGENT HARRY / (15:35 Newcastle) can make most again under the near side rail. His Southwell third looks solid form after Aramram’s run this week at Newmarket, and Rossa Ryan is one of the best jockeys at identifying and capitalising on these tempo angles.
Dan Horsford may not be a name many are familiar with, but he has all the credentials to succeed as a trainer having served his time with Alan King, latterly running the stable’s second Sharpridge yard where Trueshan was housed. Now training from there in his own right, CRIMSON SAND / (15:15 Lingfield) could give him a high-profile first career success from just his fifth runner. A pipe opener over 5f at Southwell, which was always going to prove on the sharp side, should have put him spot on for what is not a strong contest. He has drawn well in stall 5 and the assistance of Richard Kingscote is a plus. He is a double-figure price at the time of writing, which is too big to ignore.
CLASSIC CORNER
A review of the trials at Newbury and Newmarket over the last week:
1000 Guineas
The Fred Darling was quite a strange race to assess as the winner, Duty First, was quite impressive but beat a bunch of outsiders, with the better-fancied horses on the day – all of whom raced towards the possibly unfavoured far side – all underperforming.
It is hard to knock the winner, who may have appreciated the faster ground but does need to be supplemented for the 1000 Guineas and has quite an unappealing head carriage. She was followed home by an 81-rated horse in Hey Boo 100000/1000 who the handicapper has mercilessly raised 20lb off the back of that effort, one of the largest single rises in defeat I can remember in recent years. Even though she has got black type connections, they may come to rue races they forfeited by running on Saturday. Time For Sandals back at 6f may be of most interest of the Newbury field going forward.
The Nell Gwyn at Newmarket was falsely run and favoured those with a turn of foot. It looks a shallow race. Zanzoun was rated just 83 before this – stand by for a Hey Boo-type hike – and doesn’t look to have a massive amount of scope. Like Duty First, she does not currently hold an entry in the UK 1000 Guineas but does in the French equivalent. I will be very surprised if she is supplemented and can’t see her being a player in France either. The Jersey at Royal Ascot seems a more realistic target. Celestial Orbit 33000/1000 shaped quite well given the state she got in beforehand and the fact she was not well-positioned the way the race developed, but the overall form is questionable.
2000 Guineas
Jonquil 14000/1000 was a solid winner of the Greenham at Newbury on his first start for Andrew Balding. He had overcome significant trouble to win on his juvenile debut for Sir Michael Stoute, before drifting badly in the market and running poorly just over two weeks later. He was then not seen again until last Saturday. The slight overall doubt about the trial is once again the fact that the five who raced towards the far side were all well-beaten, and that could well be the slower part of the track. That potentially reduces the overall depth of the race, and the Balding horses have started far quicker than in recent seasons. He would have place prospects if connections choose to go to the Guineas, but the owners found an even better prospect just days later.
Juddmonte rounded off their domination of the trials with the most impressive winner of all in Field of Gold’s 3000/1000 Craven success. It looked an open race beforehand, and the general consensus was that like many of the Gosden horses that have run and been beaten in this race, Field Of Gold would progress for the outing. There was also the fact that he had been very keen in his races, which may have helped get him more forward at home, and that his dam had a very fiery reputation. She reportedly never wore rear shoes because no farrier was able to get close enough to fit them!
Even to an experienced eye, greys are not easy to assess fitness-wise but the performance in the race was impossible to knock, especially the way such a big horse accelerated into and out of the Dip. He will stay further, and the 5/1 offered after the race for the 2000 Guineas was very short lived. With just three weeks to go until the 2000 Guineas, he looks certain to go off favourite and – providing he handles the occasion as well as he did – the Craven is clearly the one to beat.
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