March Madness has produced a most unusual Final Four Betting this year – all of the 1-seeds have won their regional brackets and are now preparing to square off for the national championship this weekend.
The first year that the tournament had seeds was 1979, and since then, we’ve only seen all of the 1-seeds win their regions once, back in 2008. The seedings this year match the KenPom efficiency ratings as the top four teams on that list are the four 1-seeds.
All four rank in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive efficiency, which shows unusual balance. Their combined record is a whopping 135-16. If you go back to 1997, when the KenPom ratings began, these four teams are all in the top ten in KenPom history.
Duke ranks second, Houston ranks sixth, Florida ranks eighth, and Auburn ranks tenth. It was just two years ago that Florida Atlantic and San Diego State rolled to the Final Four, and there was talk that the transfer portal and NIL deals had brought parity to college basketball.
However, this time around, we didn’t see as many upsets, and the Sweet 16 teams all came from the Power 4 conferences.
Final Four Betting: Should You Parlay the Final Four?
With four top seeds in the national semifinals, you may not find much sports betting value in traditional wagers. One way to pump up those payouts (and those odds) is to place some parlays. Let’s look at how that would work with the Final Four.
How It Works
In the movie Uncut Gems, Howard Ratner (Adam Sandler) finds himself in deep debt, owing his brother-in-law $100,000. He sells an opal to NBA player Kevin Garnett for $165,000 but chooses to place a risky parlay bet instead of paying his debts. The bet includes Boston beating Philadelphia in Game 7, Boston winning the opening tip, and Garnett achieving at least 26 points and rebounds. All three bets succeed, earning Howard over $1.2 million, but he is tragically shot afterward.
Consider this parlay cautiously
If you have gambling debts, seek help for a potential addiction. However, if you’re wagering money you can afford to lose, evaluate each bet leg. Betting on Boston to win the opening tip is similar to predicting a Super Bowl coin toss. In an NBA game, the tallest players jump for the ball, and even if the expected player hits it, the outcome is uncertain. This bet lacks research support, making it like betting on red in roulette.
Betting on KG to exceed 26 points and rebounds appears favorable, as his season average was 24 (16 points, 8 rebounds). He surpassed 26 in five of the first six series games, notably scoring 31 in Game 6, against less formidable Philadelphia rebounders.
The Celtics were favored to win against the 76ers, who were the 8-seed in the East. Although the 76ers upset the top-seed Bulls, star Derrick Rose’s ACL injury in Game 1 weakened Chicago. The Celtics, with their championship-experienced veterans from 2008, faced a young, resilient 76ers team. Additionally, playing at home, where teams typically win 80% of Game 7s, further solidified Boston’s advantage.
The last two parlay legs were wise bets, with the tip adding chaos and increasing the payout potential. However, Howard Ratner’s lack of bankroll management knowledge marred the bet, reflecting deeper personal issues relevant to the film’s narrative.
Cooper Flagg is the 2025 recipient of the Oscar Robertson Trophy pic.twitter.com/07X7aEcNr0
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 4, 2025
Overview of Final Four Betting Lines
Your basic betting lines involve a point spread, moneyline odds, and a point total. The point spread is the number of points by which the favored team is expected to win.
The moneyline still has a favorite and an underdog, but you get a smaller payout if you take the favorite to win. The point total is a wager on how many points both teams will combine to score in the game.
Final Four Betting Lines Subject to Change
Saturday, April 5
Florida is favored over Auburn in the first semifinal, while Duke has a stronger advantage over Houston in the second. The betting world predicts that Auburn and Florida will score 23 more points than Duke and Houston. If you believe in a different point total, you can bet on the over or under.
Here’s how the moneylines work. If you want to bet on Houston to beat Duke by any margin, and you like that moneyline number, then you would need to bet $100 to win $216 and walk away with a total of $316. If you think Duke will win, you would need to put down $269 to win $100 and walk away with $369.
Definition of a Parlay
Also known as a “multi” or an “accumulator,” depending on the part of the world where you are placing your bets, a “parlay” involves a combination of two or more bets into one wager. The bettor has to win each small bet within the wager to get the payout – taking just one loss ends the wager and the payout. The more wagers you add, the higher the odds – and the higher the payout. Because you have to have multiple outcomes go your way, you will get more money than you would if you placed each bet separately and won each.
Placing a parlay is fairly easy. Once you’ve chosen a sportsbook such as MyBookie, then you would navigate to the event or sport – here, you would choose college basketball, or March Madness. Pick at least two of the various available bets to go on your betting slip, which generally appears at the bottom or side of the screen.
Once you’ve finished making your picks, go to the betting slip, and you’ll find an option to put these wagers into a parlay. Each individual bet has its own odds, and the online book will automatically calculate the new odds for the parlay on the basis of those individual wager numbers. In most cases, you will see the payout that you could get if you win before you place the wager.
If you’re wondering how the calculations work, you can go to an odds converter and figure out what the payout should be yourself. For each wager, take the American odds and convert them into decimal odds. Multiply those decimal odds together, and multiply that answer by the amount of your bet. Subtract your initial stake to get the odds on the parlay.
Example
So let’s say you take a trio of wagers at -110 and parlay them. The decimal equivalent is 1.91. Multiply 1.91 x 1.91 x 1.91, and you’ll get 6.97. If you’re betting $100, that’s $697. Subtract the original bet to get $597. This means that your parlay would pay out $597 for each $100 bet. If we take that back to American odds, the number is +597, or almost 6 to 1.
Advantages of Parlay on the Final Four
Parlay betting has a number of advantages to consider
One of them is higher possible payouts. If you go back to the above example, if you put down three $100 bets on those -110 moneylines, you would collect $191 (winning $91) on each one of those if they hit. Three bets where you win $91 would have a payout of $273 – less than half of the payout that would come if you combined those three bets into a parlay.
Another advantage is elevated excitement
If you have more than one wager going on the same game, you’ll pay more attention throughout because each leg has its own drama. If you add live betting wagers to your parlay, such as which team will win the first half, or individual props such as whether particular player will hit certain statistical targets, then each play up and down the court could make a difference.
You also have the edge of diversifying your bets
You actually spread your risk across multiple events instead of putting your whole bankroll down on just one. Of course, all of those legs have to hit for you to win, so an even safer way to diversify would be to place the single bets instead of going for the parlay, but then you don’t get the big stacks of cash when you win.
Common Mistakes to Avoid when Parlay Betting on the Final Four
One mistake that a lot of casual bettors make with parlays is failing to calculate the payout odds correctly. Trying to figure the odds out without converting American numbers to decimal odds can lead to miscalculations, so you might think that you’re going to get more money than you actually do – or you might think that your odds are lower than they turn out to be, so you accept more risk than you otherwise might.
People often err with parlays after other bets go wrong. For instance, if you bet on Auburn to win the first half but lose because of a last-minute Florida buzzer-beater, you might impulsively place a parlay with live betting for the second half. Believing Auburn will come back, you add a prop bet on your favorite player scoring a certain number of points. The tempting payout blurs your judgment, forgetting that the player hasn’t achieved that total all season. Each parlay requires thorough research to avoid betting based on emotions rather than knowledge.
Smart Final Four Betting Parlay Strategies at March Madness
Pick a couple of teams you trust
You can’t choose a significantly inferior team, avoiding past hype around Cinderella stories like George Mason or Loyola-Chicago. However, finding value will require effort. Duke, an elite team throughout the year, has played in a relatively weaker ACC but demonstrated their strength in the tournament, positioning them among the best ever. To succeed, analyze individual matchups and team systems carefully to determine the ideal strategies for the competition ahead.
Look for correlated bet types
Correlated bet types come from the same game and benefit from outcomes that are closely related. For example, you might bet that Cooper Flagg will score more than a certain number of points for Duke against Houston, and you might also bet that Duke will win on the moneyline. Bets that pair well together like that are more likely to pay off as a group.
Best Parlay Bet Types
If you’re looking at both games in the semifinals, you might pair the favorite from one game with the underdog winning (or covering) in the other – so figure out which game has more value for the underdog – and which underdog has the better chance of taking advantage of that value. Other than that, picking correlated wagers is an excellent way to build up that account. Happy wagering!
Congratulations to Bruce Pearl and Rick Pitino on earning AP Co-Coach of the Year honors pic.twitter.com/O5Xjdd96mp
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 4, 2025
March Madness Odds to Win Today
Sports Betting Odds for the Game
Final Four Betting: Parlay and Analysis March Madness
XBet offers up to date Basketball lines from NCAAB
