“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Reed Sheppard is an almost-20-year-old guard from London, Kentucky, who averaged 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game for the Kentucky Wildcats. He is expected to be selected among the top-10 picks in this year’s draft. NBADraft.net currently has him projected at No. 5.
NBA-Specific Skills
Even as the NBA continues to dramatically evolve in terms of skillsets and spatial orientation, three core tenants in prospect evaluation will endure as long as this sport revolves around putting a ball through a hoop: Can you shoot? Can you pass? Can you dribble?
Reed Sheppard checks those three boxes as emphatically as anyone available in this year’s draft.
Sheppard has seemingly unlimited range on his picture-perfect jump shot. He possesses the kind of shooting form coaches record and require the shooters on their team to replicate. He can fire shots from any depth at any angle with balance and touch. His quick release off curl screens gives him a gravitational pull that opens the offense for his teammates, and his pump-and-go game can flummox a defense caught in rotation.
Sheppard isn’t just a gunner, either. He’s an adept playmaker with terrific passing and ball-handling skills. He isn’t a run-your-offense type of point guard, but Sheppard uses the threat of his 3-point shot (an eye-popping 52% on decent volume as a freshman) to penetrate into the heart of defenses. He has a nice floater to go along with his court vision, as well.
The knock on most players with Sheppard’s offensive profile is on the other end of the court. Can he hang defensively with the NBA’s elite backcourts? He might be a notch below the top guys athletically, but he’s feisty – 2.5 steals per game with 23 blocked shots in 33 games. He really gets after it on both ends of the floor.
Throw in his top-tier basketball IQ and his overflowing confidence, and it’s easy to envision a scenario where Sheppard is a significant contributor for a perennial playoff team. The analytics community loves him with good reason.
On a scale from 1-10, Sheppard’s shooting range and high efficiency rates at an 8.5.
Fatal Flaws
At this stage of his development, Sheppard is a classic “shooting guard trapped in a point guard’s body.”
At 6-3, 185, with average foot speed, strength, and length, Sheppard finds himself at a physical disadvantage against the apex predator wing players, and even wings a level below the All-Star types. He will have to take his lumps as a rookie and ensure that doesn’t impact his confidence in the other aspects of his game.
Also, Sheppard didn’t start the majority of his games with the Wildcats and played a hair under 29 minutes per contest – a major reason his efficiency numbers grade out so well. Will Sheppard’s shooting splits hold under a significant increase in the physical/mental workload he is sure to endure as a rookie?
His game log as a freshman was all over the map – 32 points one night, 7 another. A big reason why the No. 3 seed Wildcats got bounced in round one against Oakland? Sheppard: 26 minutes, 1-5 shooting, 3 points, 0 rebounds. NBA coaches crave consistency. If Sheppard can’t lock in night after night, a coach might opt for a more consistent veteran presence, particularly if the team that drafts Sheppard employs a coach with shaky job security.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Sheppard’s average athleticism and streakiness rates at an 8.
Pre-NBA Setting
Sheppard comes from a deep basketball lineage and was one of the most decorated high school players in the history of Kentucky basketball, averaging more than 20 points per game each season and filling up the stat sheet in every other category, as well. He was a no-brainer choice for the state’s Mr. Basketball title and earned a spot on the McDonald’s All-American team.
Every major recruiting service listed him as a four-star prospect with Kentucky winning the recruiting battle over Louisville and a handful of other top basketball programs.
Even though he came off the bench for most of his freshman season, Sheppard still earned several postseason accolades: Second-team All-SEC, conference Freshman of the Year, and the national Freshman of the Year award from USWBA and NABC. Even though his college career ended on a down note, success has followed Sheppard throughout most of his pre-NBA career.
On a scale from 1-10, Sheppard’s pre-NBA career rates at an 8.5.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Sheppard’s range can shift depending on who is doing the evaluating, but it is hard to see him going ahead of some of the higher upside prospects in this draft.
The San Antonio Spurs could use either of their lottery picks on Sheppard. Depending on whether the Spurs believe Sheppard doesn’t last until No. 8, he makes a ton of sense for them at No. 4. The Spurs need to start surrounding Victor Wembanyama with shooters and high-IQ playmakers, and Sheppard possesses many of the qualities Gregg Popavich craves in his guards.
If he doesn’t end up in San Antonio, Detroit is another logical destination, as the Pistons desperately need to add some shooting and secondary shot creation alongside Cade Cunningham.
If the Spurs and the other mid-lottery teams are out on Sheppard, he likely won’t last beyond Memphis at No. 9. Sheppard has all the makings of a grit-and-grind Grizzly and would be an immediate contributor in a backcourt rotation of Ja Morant and Desmond Bane.
On a scale from 1-10, Sheppard’s situational independence is a 9. He fits pretty much every team concept, thanks to his shooting range and feistiness.
