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Follow our NFL Wild Card Games Oddss this Weekend | to The NFL has closed the books on the 2024 regular season, which means that the wild-card round of the playoffs are upon us.
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions have earned the top seed in the AFC and NFC, respectively, which means they get a week off to rest and recuperate from injuries while watching to see who will come to town for the divisional playoff round.
The other 12 teams in the postseason will square off this weekend, with two games set for Saturday, three for Sunday and one on Monday night.
Some of the teams are more prepared for deep runs in the playoffs than others – some teams started out strong before fading down the stretch while others are peaking at just the right time.
Let’s take a deep dive into the coming weekend as you think about your sports betting strategy.
NFL Wild Card Games Odds: How to Win Big this Weekend
Lessons from Past Playoffs & Odds for the Wild-Card Round
We’ve seen teams that came out of nowhere to make big runs in the playoffs. In 2001, the New England Patriots didn’t look like a Super Bowl contender, let alone a team in the first year of building a dynasty. Tom Brady took over for Drew Bledsoe at quarterback in Week 2 and only averaged 6.9 yards per passing attempt that season.
However, the Pats took the #2 seed in the AFC. They almost lost at home to the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round, but the “Tuck Rule Game” – which took place in swirling snow – went the Patriots’ way, and then New England beat Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship and the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI despite entering both games as double-digit underdogs.
New England Patriots
The Patriots have also ended up on the wrong end of a fairy-tale playoff run. In 2007, they entered Super Bowl XLII with a perfect 18-0 record through the regular season, the divisional round and the AFC Championship. They met a New York Giants team that had started 6-2 but finished 10-6 thanks to an offense that turned the ball over too many times. They saw New England in the regular-season finale but lost, ending up with the fifth seed in the NFC. Of course they went to Dallas and knocked off the top-seeded Cowboys, who have been playoff underperformers since before the invention of the smartphone. They followed that up with an NFC Championship win at Lambeau Field over Green Bay and went to the Super Bowl as 12 ½-point underdogs. However, Eli Manning found David Tyree for the famed “helmet catch” – which would be the last grab of Tyree’s NFL career – and then threw the game-winning pass to Plaxico Burress in the last minute of regulation to take the 17-14 win.
Philadelphia Eagles
And then there are the 2017 Eagles. It looked like quarterback Carson Wentz (remember when he was an amazing signal-caller? It was extremely hard to remember those days when he looked like he’d never played the game at all before he got the start in Week 18 for the Chiefs against Denver.) would win the MVP, but then a knee injury ended his season. The Eagles still got the top seed in the NFC with backup Nick Foles at the controls. Even so, they were the underdog in every playoff game. They welcomed Atlanta as 2 ½-point underdogs – but won by five. They were three-point home underdogs at home against Minnesota in the NFC Championship – but they rolled to a shocking 38-7 win. In the Super Bowl, they entered as 4 ½-point underdogs to New England. Foles threw for 373 yards and three scores, including the 11-yard winning pass to Zach Ertz. He also caught a touchdown pass on the now-famous Philly Special play. Now, Wentz has dropped to perennial backup status, and Nick Foles is out of the league. But that was a magical postseason.
So what are the NFL Wild Card Games Odds heading into this weekend? Let’s look at the schedule and the current point spread, point total and moneylines for each showdown.
Saturday, January 11
Sunday, January 12
Monday, January 13
— NFL345 (@NFL345) January 8, 2025
NFL Wild Card Games Odds: Key Players / Why Each Team Will Win This Weekend
Let’s go in order through the games and teams, starting with the Chargers. They’re in the postseason for just the fourth time since 2010. Their last playoff game saw them jump out to a 27-0 halftime lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars…only to lose, 31-30 on a walkoff field goal. A key player for this team is cornerback Derwin James, who has only allowed 0.5 yard per coverage snap. He usually lines up as the slot corner, and he leads all players with at least 200 coverage snaps. The rest of the secondary has been pretty solid as well. If the Chargers win, it will be thanks to that defense shutting down Houston and Jim Harbaugh’s consistent playoff leadership. In four seasons with the 49ers, he took his team to three NFC title games and one Super Bowl, so he knows how to win this time of year.
Houston Texans
What about the Texans? They’ve become masters of winning the AFC South and hosting a wild-card playoff game, with their eighth home playoff game in the first round since 2011. They’ve gone 5-2 in those contests, including a 45-14 shellacking of the Cleveland Browns last year. Danielle Hunter leads the team with 12 sacks, and Will Anderson Jr has 11. They have two players with five interceptions apiece, so their defense can be stingy. If you like the Texans, then you see their offense getting back to the strong performances from earlier this season and throughout 2023 – which means the O-line will give C.J. Stroud time to pass. He’s been pressured on 35.8% of his dropbacks, which ranks fourth highest in the league and makes it hard to deliver the ball down the field.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Next, let’s consider the Steelers. They were 10-3 at one point, in contention for the top seed in the AFC, but then they lost four in a row to finish 10-7 and didn’t even win their division. In addition to their four-game losing streak this season, they’re on a five-game playoff losing streak that dates back to 2016 when they beat Kansas City in the divisional round. Russell Wilson has given the offense more life than it has had since Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow injury back in 2019. He has gone 19 of 41 on passes of more than 20 air yards, with four touchdowns and a pick on those plays. However, Wilson has slowed down considerably during the losing streak, and the defense has gotten uncharacteristically sloppy.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have finished the season on a four-game winning streak, outscoring the opposition by a combined 135-43. These wins didn’t all come against tomato cans, either, as two of those wins came against Houston and Pittsburgh. The defense has only allowed 15.4 points per game over the last seven contests. All eyes, though, will be on Lamar Jackson. He’s led the NFL’s #1 offense this year, but he has struggled mightily in the playoffs, with a 2-4 postseason record. He has thrown six picks and fumbled the ball away three times. In those four losses, the Ravens have scored a combined 42 points. Can he break his personal playoff slump?
Denver Broncos
The last time we saw the Broncos in the playoff was in their Super Bowl 50 victory. They have a four-game losing streak in road playoff games that extends back to 1997. Cornerback Riley Moss has returned from a knee injury that kept him out for four weeks. His return will solidify a secondary that has contributed to a defense that is third in the NFL in overall defensive efficiency. If the offense can extend drives against first-team defenses (that shellacking against Kansas City was akin to a preseason game), then the Broncos have a chance, even in Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have made the playoffs six straight seasons now, and a path to the Super Bowl for Buffalo depends on the play of quarterback Josh Allen. He’s the favorite to win the MVP, and he has led the Bills to 30 or more points in 12 games this year. Buffalo has only turned the ball over eight times, which ties them with the 2019 New Orleans Saints for the fewest giveaways in a season in 91 years. The Bills’ defense needs to tighten up on third downs, as they allow conversions 43.8% of the time, the fourth-worst number in the league.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers played the Eagles in Week 1 – down in Brazil – and Philadelphia escaped with a barnburner of a win. Green Bay played Dallas last year as the 7-seed and won on the road, and they also beat Philadelphia the last time they met in the playoffs, back in 2010 in the wild-card round. Tailback Josh Jacobs has filled in for Aaron Jones quite nicely, running for 1,329 yards and helping the team pick up 146.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Their defense has grabbed 31 takeaways, which ranks in the top five.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles got 109 rushing yards and two scores from tailback Saquon Barkley in their Week 1 win over the Packers, and adding him to this roster has given Philadelphia elite balance on offense. Along with wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Barkley gives the Eagles elite skill players at all of the offensive positions. Philadelphia will need to get off to faster starts on offense in the playoffs, though – they didn’t score any first-quarter points until the eighth game of the season, and they got blanked through the first 15 minutes a total of 10 times. The playoffs aren’t a time when you want to have to dig yourself out of a deficit.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders are back in the postseason for the first time since 2020. They also played Tampa Bay that year, losing to a team led by Tom Brady that would roll to a Super Bowl win. This time around, the Commanders have Jayden Daniels leading the offense. He’s thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 scores, and he’s run for 864 yards and six more touchdowns. He has also led four game-winning drives and has thrown three touchdown passes on the last play from scrimmage. He has 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime this season. A potential problem is the run defense, which ranks 30th in the NFL and dead last among playoff teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers rolled over Washington in Week 1 at home, 37-20. They also routed an NFC East team at home in the wild-card round last year, stomping the Eagles, 32-9. The resurgence of quarterback Baker Mayfield helped carry the team through a stretch of games without either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, and Mayfield has thrown for 41 touchdowns, second in the NFL. His completion percentage (71.4%) ranks third, as does his passing yardage (4,500). The Buccaneers rush for 149.2 yards per game, thanks to Bucky Irving. Can the defense play consistently? They’ve allowed 249.3 passing yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are the first 14-win wild-card team in NFL history, and we will see how they recover after heading to Detroit in Week 18, leaving two field goals on the board when they had the ball inside the Detroit 10 and opting instead to go for it on fourth-and-goal…only to get denied. A 10-9 second-half deficit got out of hand in a hurry and ended up in 31-9 fashion. The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score games, thanks in large part to kicker Will Reichard. He started the season making 14 straight field goal attempts before missing four games with a quad injury. Since then, he has missed six of 16 field goals, including one in Week 18. Can the team right the ship in Los Angeles, where they lost to the Rams, 30-20, earlier this season?
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams only have one player in the Pro Bowl this year, and that’s Jared Verse, the rookie who joined the defensive front seven. The Rams started just 1-4 as both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were out of the lineup, but their return helped sparked the team. Even so, it was the defense that got this team into the postseason, allowing just 24 total points in the last three games before they clinched the NFC West title. Their offense, though, is much less consistent. They dropped 44 points in a shocking win over Buffalo in Week 14, but then they needed the next three games combined to score 44 more.
NFL Wild Card Games Odds: Rivalries This Week / What’s Coming Next / Top Picks
There aren’t a lot of traditional rivalries in this year’s wild-card round. We do have an AFC North battle as Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh. The Steelers have tended to have the Ravens’ number on the road, but both teams have playoff ghosts to exorcise. Pittsburgh is looking slow on offense, while the Ravens are cooking, so I don’t expect that game to be particularly close.
Looking down the road, the divisional playoff round will see re-seeding as the top seeds will host the lowest-seeded winners in their conference from the wild-card round, and the other two teams in each conference will play in the stadium of the higher-seeded team.
As far as our NFL picks are concerned, here’s where we stand mid-week:
- Chargers (-3) to win and cover
- Ravens and Steelers to go OVER 43.5 points
- Broncos (+8.5) to cover
- Packers (+4.5) to cover
- Commanders and Buccaneers to go UNDER 50.5 points
- Rams (+1) to cover
The #NFLPlayoffs are set! pic.twitter.com/M1ui4No2Qf
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
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