The overarching theme for CFL fantasy play entering Week 11 is the instantaneous changes at pivot as each of the week’s four games could have at least one team starting a quarterback that was not atop the depth chart two weeks ago.
Offences with a new face breaking the huddle will be affected, especially in the passing game. That means Week 11 could be very friendly to running backs, as this week’s edition of Start vs. Sit implies.
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Ottawa (5-2-1) at Calgary (4-5-0), Thursday, 9:00 PM (Eastern)
Line: Calgary -2.5
O/U: 49.5 (-114)
Start: Peyton Logan, RB, Stampeders $6,000 Salary
Logan made the most of his opportunity in Week 10, finishing with 21.4 FP after doing damage as a runner and as a catcher.
Without a lot of options at running back on their roster, the Red and White might once again give Logan a lot of touches, which is always a positive sign when it comes to fantasy production.
Sit: Reggie Begelton, WR, Stampeders, $10,000 Salary
After a slow start, Begelton has returned as one of the more productive pass catchers for fantasy players, averaging 15.4 FP in three of his last four games while improving his catch rate.
It’s the fourth game that has Begelton here. He scored just 5.4 FP in a Week 8 loss at Ottawa when he was held to three catches for 24 yards on four targets. Begelton will see more looks from quarterback Jake Maier ($11,600) on Thursday. However, if the Stampeders are without running back Dedrick Mills for a third straight game, then Ottawa’s defence will focus on giving Begelton another frustrating experience.
Montreal (8-1-0) at Saskatchewan (5-3-1), Friday, 9:00 PM
Line: Montreal -2.5
O/U: 50.5 (-105)
Start: Charleston Rambo, WR, Alouettes, $3,500 Salary
Montreal could be without star receiver Tyson Philpot ($9,300), yet the Als’ passing game will continue to thrive now that Rambo is becoming more than just a complimentary option. Rambo had one of the best fantasy totals in Week 11, turning six catches for 124 yards and two majors into 30.4 FP, the third time he’s scored at least 15.4 FP in four games.
Davis Alexander ($7,500) will get at least one more start at pivot before Cody Fajardo ($13,800) returns to the lineup, giving him another opportunity to jell with the receiver who has helped continue to make Alexander’s relief appearances remarkable. He’s no longer a sleeper, but Rambo’s salary and production make him an excellent Week 11 value play.
Sit: Frankie Hickson, RB, Roughriders, $4,500 Salary
The status of AJ Ouellette ($10,000) remains in question, but what should not be questioned is that Hickson’s brief spurt as a fantasy value has ended. His numbers have tumbled from 20.3 FP in Week 8, 10.9 FP in Week 9, and 3.2 FP in the Week 10 deadlock against the REDBLACKS when he rushed for 23 yards on 12 carries and just one of his four targets.
Production at the position might be secondary if, as expected, Trevor Harris ($13,200) returns at quarterback after missing the last six games. Saskatchewan threw the ball over 70 per cent with Harris leading the offence. If the Roughriders find themselves in an early deficit, the rate will increase. Follow the injury report to see if Ouellette is an active practice participant. If Hickson is atop the depth chart on Thursday, avoid him.
Edmonton (2-7-0) at Hamilton (2-7-0), Saturday, 7:00 PM
Line: Edmonton -1.5
O/U: 52.5 (-102)
Start: Taylor Powell, QB, Tiger-Cats, $5,000 Salary
A new era dawned for Hamilton when Powell replaced Bo Levi Mitchell ($11,000) in Saturday’s loss at Montreal. Powell threw a pair of majors while passing for 316 yards and rushing five times for a team-best 52 yards. All told, Powell scored 25.4 FP in less than a full game, perhaps a sign of what the second-year field general will become.
The Elks held the Lions without a completion of more than 30 yards in Sunday’s win but that was done with BC starter Vernon Adams Jr. ($13,300) sidelined. Powell – should he get the starting nod – will be able to attack an Edmonton defence that’s allowed 17 touchdown passes and a 106.5 opposing QBR.
Sit: Elks receivers
Once unthinkable, an Edmonton receiving corps brimming over with talent has become a fantasy wasteland with the insertion of Tre Ford ($8,500) at quarterback and the explosive two-week stretch of Javon Leake ($5,500).
Elks newcomer Tevin Jones ($5,400) has scored 45.6 FP in his first two games with the club. However, Eugene Lewis ($9,500) and Hergy Mayala ($6,500) failed to score a single fantasy point in Sunday’s win over the Lions, while Dillon Mitchell ($8,000) had just seven FP. Ford has shown a willingness to target a hot hand, which is why Jones has thrived. There’s no proper guess on who that receiver on Saturday will be, so it’s best to stay away.
Winnipeg (3-6-0) at BC (5-4-0), Sunday, 7:00 PM
Line: Winnipeg -3.5
O/U: 46.5 (-110)
Start: Ontaria Wilson, WR, Blue Bombers, $7,000 Salary
Wilson is a fantasy darling, averaging 22.5 FP in his last four games including two with better than 25 FP. He has pulled in five of the Blue Bombers’ nine completions of better than 20 yards and caught seven of his 16 targets of at least 20 yards. His numbers will go higher if Winnipeg can improve on their league-low five passing majors, of which Wilson has two.
Averaging nearly 15 depth yards per route, Wilson has Zach Collaros‘ ($11,000) trust on deep balls. He also opens the field for running back Brady Oliveira ($12,100), who no longer has to worry about seeing defences stack the box against him. Wilson has caught 29 of his 38 receptions in the last four games and is well on pace to exceed 1,000 receiving yards. He’s a hot hand who continues to be available at a still-bargain salary.
Sit: Alexander Hollins, WR, Lions, $12,000 Salary
There was a point in this season where Hollins was on pace to crack 2,000 receiving yards and merit strong Most Outstanding Player consideration. That was then.
This is now, and it hasn’t been peachy for Hollins, who scored just 3.8 FP in Sunday’s loss to Edmonton, his third straight game scoring less than 7.3 fantasy points. Hollins showed signs of regression before Adams Jr. was injured and was ineffective with Jake Dolegala ($5,000) throwing to him in Week 10. The Lions have a variety of options to throw to, and if Hollins’s slump keeps him down, the fantasy value of Keon Hatcher ($7,000) goes up.