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Ready for Super Bowl Betting? The Kansas City Chiefs have a shot at NFL history as they enter Super Bowl LIX with the chance to become the first team to win three straight Lombardi Trophies.
They were actually the underdogs going into Super Bowl LVII (+2) and Super Bowl LVIII (+1), but they finally go in as the favorites this time (-1.5). In 58 Super Bowls, the favorites have ended up losing 21 times straight up.
The favorite has only covered the spread 29 times in 58 Super Bowls. In the other 29, two ended up in a push, while the underdogs covered against the spread 27 times.
Some of this has to do with the fact that sports betting lines tend to be quite small in the Super Bowl. After all, the NFL is all about parity – draft order favors teams who don’t succeed in the regular season.
The schedules that teams play are based on how they finished in their divisions the prior season, so if you win your division, you end up playing three division champions the next year, two from your conference and one from the other conference.
Super Bowl Betting: Favorites and Underdogs
The team that came in last in your division?
They get to see three last-place teams from those same divisions. That comparative difference in schedule difficulty is designed to help teams gain better equity in terms of outcomes. Sometimes, though, you have some mammoth point spreads.
Super Bowl III
If you look back, the New York Jets entered as 18-point underdogs. Jets quarterback Joe Namath famously guaranteed that his team would win outright, and win they did, even though the Colts had nailed down the NFL Championship with an emphatic 34-0 win.
They scored the first 16 points of the game and held on for a 16-7 win over the then-Baltimore Colts. “Broadway Joe” rode that prediction all the way to the Hall of Fame and a career in show business, sports broadcasting and other endorsement opportunities.
Super Bowl XXXVI
Here, the New England Patriots entered as 14-point underdogs against the then-St. Louis Rams. Kurt Warner led the offense known as the “Greatest Show on Turf,” and the Rams were looking at their second title in three seasons.
At the time, Tom Brady had only started 16 games in his career. However, the Pats built a 17-3 lead going into the fourth quarter, before the Rams woke up and scored a pair of touchdowns, tying the game with a minute and a half left in regulation.
Brady led the game-winning drive, and the Pats kicked the field goal to win, 20-17, as the clock hit zeroes.
Let’s talk about the different factors associated with taking favorites and underdogs – and which is the better choice for Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
23 years ago today…
Super Bowl XXXVI
The greatest dynasty in sports history was born 🙌🏆 pic.twitter.com/vaAkrHR3P1
— Games with Names (@gameswithnames) February 3, 2025
Super Bowl Betting on the Favorite: Pros and Cons
The “favorite” is the team that is expected to win, such as KC -1.5 in the Super Bowl. On the money line, they have negative numbers, e.g., KC -120. The more negative, the greater the expectation of victory. To win betting on the Chiefs, they must win by at least two points. Betting on the money line, you risk $120 to win $100 and take home $220.
Decimal or Fractional Odds
Outside the United States, odds may be represented in decimals or fractions. In decimal odds, favorites are below 2.0, with smaller values indicating stronger favorites. In fractional odds, a value under 1, like ⅝, suggests a team’s high winning expectation.
Key Factors to Consider
Bookmakers determine favorites and underdogs by assessing team form, recent results, injuries, player availability, and weather conditions. Historical performance between teams is also crucial. In Super Bowl LVII, Kansas City defeated Philadelphia by three points. Despite the Eagles hiring two new coordinators since then, many key players for both teams remain unchanged, influencing betting odds and expectations for their upcoming matchup.
Opening Odds
After their release, bookmakers adjust point spreads and moneylines based on betting action to ensure profits and align with public sentiment. For high-stakes games, like the Super Bowl, this can significantly sway lines. Currently, the line indicates a strong belief in the Chiefs’ chances of winning, especially given their tendency for late scoring drives, which has become a hallmark of their performance this season.
So what is the biggest “pro” when it comes to betting on favorites?
You have a greater likelihood of winning. However, the biggest “con” is that the favorite is expected to win, and so your payout is going to be smaller as a result. If you only bet on favorites, you’re not going to make money over time as a sports bettor.
Why? The best teams often lose when expected to win, and overconfidence can contribute to this. Heavy favorites may not take their opponents seriously or maintain focus. Injuries before and during the game can also impact outcomes. Weather conditions, such as hot and humid conditions or cold and snowy conditions, can also influence outcomes.
Also, Washington’s victory over Chicago in the season’s game was a result of a lack of attention by the Bears’ secondary and a lucky bounce and catch by the Commanders, who turned a loss into a win. This illustrates the power of one miraculous play.
It’s also possible to fall prey to errors in judging odds value. Let’s say a team has a -1000 moneyline to win. You put down a $100 on what is a sure thing. You’re only going to take $110 home. If your team gets upset, then you’re down $100. That risk-to-reward ratio doesn’t make that bet on the favorite worthwhile over time.
So how can you bet on favorites and make money over time?
Combining multiple bets into one parlay wager can increase payouts by including favorites. This makes it safer than adding an underdog. For instance, if you believe Saquon Barkley will exceed the total in rushing yards, adding Kansas City to win and cover (the favorite choice) increases the payout for both teams, making the value of taking the Chiefs higher.
You can also hedge your bets. Let’s say you take the Chiefs, but then the Eagles get a touchdown on their first drive and then swipe a pick-six to go up 14-0. Yes, the Chiefs could still come back and win, but you might want to place a smaller live betting odds on the Eagles to cover possible losses.
Super Bowl Betting Underdog: How to Spot Value and Capitalize on the Underdog
Losing more underdog bets than winning can still yield profits due to higher payouts from plus point spreads or moneylines. In closely contested games like Super Bowl LIX, if you believe the Eagles will cover, it’s beneficial to also bet on them to win outright, given the minimal point spread difference.
To determine when to bet on the underdog, seek value—where the underdog has better winning chances than implied by the odds. For instance, in the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup, despite Kansas City’s strong late-game performance, the game’s result may hinge on which team controls the final moments.
Both teams boast powerful offenses that could exploit defensive weaknesses over time, despite their top-tier status. Factors like defensive fatigue and rules favoring offense suggest a high-scoring game. Therefore, betting on the Eagles in this seemingly balanced scenario offers more value, making it a sensible choice.
Analyzing your matchup is crucial, as it involves assessing both teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Consider factors like recent form, player availability, and key injuries. Although some sports favor upsets, historical data shows that in 27 of the last 58 Super Bowls, underdogs have beaten the spread, and 21 have won outright, highlighting the underdog’s strong potential.
Does your underdog have momentum?
That’s an important consideration. Last year, the Eagles cratered into the playoffs, turning a 10-1 start into an 11-6 finish before imploding in an embarrassing playoff debacle in Tampa Bay. Since their 2-2 start to the season, the Eagles have only lost once – a game in which they lost their starting quarterback and still managed 33 points on the day. Since then, they have won five straight. The Chiefs, of course, also have momentum, but it’s not like the Eagles are listing at this point.
Psychological Factors in Betting
It’s important to consider at this point just why you’re betting on the Super Bowl. Are you putting down $50 on a fun bet? Then put it down and enjoy the game. If you’re a serious bettor trying to make money this way, though, then you want to remember that emotions can keep you from profiting.
Emotions can significantly harm your finances, particularly in live betting. For instance, if you bet $100 on the Chiefs to score first, but the Eagles score a quick touchdown, you lose that $100 instantly. Frustrated, you might feel inclined to bet another $100 on Isaiah Pacheco scoring on the next drive, neglecting the fact that the Chiefs usually prefer passing in expected running scenarios. This emotional impulse can lead to further losses.
Embrace excitement about the Super Bowl but avoid emotional investment in betting for money. Be smart with your choices and avoid sending more good money after bad through your wagering app. Hand your smartphone to a friend when upset about a prop outcome to prevent further negative outcomes.
IT’S OFFICIALLY SUPER BOWL WEEK 😤
📺: #SBLIX – Sunday 6:30pm ET on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Cdi3F5LZVH— NFL (@NFL) February 3, 2025
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