Final Four Betting: The 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament has featured a lot less madness than what we’ve seen in previous years. Sure, BYU put on a bit of a surprise run into the second weekend, but if you saw how the Cougars played down the stretch, that shouldn’t have been surprising.
You did see Clemson almost lose in the ACC tournament to SMU, right? The Mustangs clanked three-ball after three-ball, and they still almost beat the Tigers to get to the ACC semifinals.
So seeing Clemson fall early shouldn’t have been a shock. The power conferences have carried the day – all of the Sweet 16 teams came from one of those leagues. The sports betting chalk prevailed in round after round, and there weren’t a lot of games that came right down to the wire.
The last time all four 1-seeds made it to the Final Four was back in 2008. Mario Chalmers drained a three at the buzzer for Kansas to send the Jayhawks’ game with Memphis to overtime. The Jayhawks would prevail for their first national championship in 20 years.
Is there a sure pick when four 1-seeds are involved? We’ll talk about how you should manage your sports betting for the last weekend of this tournament.
Final Four Betting: Sure Pick for the Championship Game
What Is a Sure Pick in NCAA Championship Betting?
A “sure pick” is a bet that has an almost certain chance of paying out. Obviously, no bet is a pure “sure thing” because then no book would offer action on it. There have been many “sure picks” that failed to pay out. In 2018, 16-seed University of Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC) took down 1-seed Virginia, 74-54. Five years later, Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue, 63-58. Those are the only two times a 16-seed has beaten a 1-seed. As of 2025, the record of 1-seeds against 16-seeds is 154-2. So is taking the 1-seed a “sure pick”? It’s as close as you’re going to get – but you also won’t get any meaningful value from making that bet against the moneyline.
When you’re in the Final Four, you’re not going to find a “sure pick.” The teams are too evenly matched. Even if you have a Cinderella hanging around in the Final Four, you’re likely to see such a sizable point spread in that game that picking the favorite to cover isn’t going to be a “sure thing.” If you take the moneyline pick, the fact that this Cinderella made it so far by beating other quality teams brings risk that you might not get enough value to justify.
Final Four Betting Factors
There are other factors that you’ll want to consider when you’re lining up your sports betting for this year’s Final Four.
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Final Four Betting Matchups
There are some years when you can take advantage of unusual matchups. For example, when Jim Boeheim coached the Syracuse Orange, his teams always played a 2-3 zone instead of man-to-man. Some teams will play zone from time to time, but the Orange played it almost exclusively under Boeheim. He specialized in recruiting guards with long arms to contest shots from outside and big men inside to clog the lane. If a team was going to beat Syracuse, it would primarily have to be by outside shooting. As the tournament goes on, some teams give in to the pressure, and their shooting percentages go down, and teams that live by the zone defense can benefit.
There are other years when there is so much parity that matchup leverage can be tough to find. According to KenPom, all four teams in this Final Four are in the top ten in the nation in both defensive and offensive efficiency. We haven’t seen that happen in a Final Four since 2002. On offense, Duke ranks first, Florida is second, and Auburn is third, with Houston sitting in tenth. On defense, Houston ranks first, Duke comes in fourth, Auburn ranks eighth, and Florida is tenth.
The three top-rated players in KenPom’s system are also going to be on the floor in the Final Four: Cooper Flagg of Duke, Johni Broome of Auburn, and Walter Clayton Jr of Florida, in order of ranking. We haven’t seen that happen in a decade; in 2015, we saw Frank Kaminsky, Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns pull off the same trifecta. So with these teams stacked so well on both sides of the ball, it will be interesting to see what matchup problems – if any – appear over the course of the games.
Injuries
The college basketball season is a long march, and key players go down from time to time. One key player to consider is Johni Broome of Auburn, who hurt his right elbow with 10:38 left in the tigers’ Elite Eight win over Michigan State. He blocked a shot and then had to leave for almost five minutes of game time. He did come back in and nailed a three-pointer on his first possession after coming back in. Tigers coach Bruce Pearl has said that Broome feels “100%” going into the weekend, but we may not know until we see Broome take some live shots in the game how well he’s doing.
Another key player is Duke’s Maliq Brown. He had dislocated his shoulder during the ACC Tournament and missed the first two rounds of the tournament. He did play the second weekend without any problems, and while he’s still not at 100%, he’s expected to play a significant amount against Houston in the Final Four.
Seeding
Sometimes seeding is important. In this case, though, we have four 1-seeds squaring off. It’s not like a 10-seed Syracuse or an 11-seed N.C. State has crept into the Final Four. So this time around, seeding isn’t going to help you a whole lot.
Tournament Performance
All season long, these four teams have been playing amazing ball. Florida started 13-0. At one point Auburn was 21-1 with a bunch of wins over Quad 1 competition, working their way through a brutal schedule like a hot knife through butter. Duke absolutely trounced the rest of the ACC throughout the months of January, February and early March. Houston has a 30-1 record since November. Their only loss came by one point in overtime to Big 12 foe Texas Tech, who made it to the Elite Eight.
Three of these teams won their respective conference tournaments. Houston has won 17 games in a row. Duke? 15. Florida? 13. This is the first time that KenPom has had more than one team with a rating of +35 or more in a single season. This year? He has four. And they’re the four left in the Big Dance.
In the tournament, Auburn has led all four of their games for the whole final 10 minutes. Duke has led all four of their games for the entire second half. Houston had a scare in the Sweet 16 against Purdue, tied in the waning seconds before that amazing inbounds play. They followed that up by routing the 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers from wire to wire. Florida struggled with UConn in the second round before getting the late win. They were down nine with three minutes left against Texas in the Elite Eight, but then they just made a succession of huge shots to get by the Longhorns.
Latest NCAA Championship Game Odds
Duke is the favorite to win it all – their odds are even. Florida (+280) is the second choice, followed by Houston (+500) and Auburn (+550). Interestingly, the selection committee made Auburn the overall top seed in the tournament, and they haven’t had much adversity at all getting to the Final Four.
Breaking Down the NCAA Championship Game Favorites
Houston could emerge from this scrum as the winner because they have the most experienced and most skilled coach left in the bracket. Kelvin Sampson, at 69, would be the oldest coach to win a title if the Cougars pull it off. He’s been to three Final Fours now, and that inbounds play that delivered the win against Purdue showed why he’s playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers. His Cougars have a 159-23 record over the last five seasons even as they have moved from the AAC to the Big 12.
Florida has one of the most clutch players in the nation in Walter Clayton Jr. In the last minute of the Gators’ win over Texas Tech, he had a chance to shoot from just five feet. He had the presence of mind to pass that up and move out past the arc. Then he had the confidence and the skill to knock down the three-ball that would put the Gators up by a point. He’s averaging 21.6 points per game since the start of the SEC Tournament, earning the name Mr. March.
Auburn has had the toughest path to the Final Four. Yes, they skated past their 16-seed in the first round, but then they had to deal with 9-seed Creighton, 5-seed Michigan, and 2-seed Michigan State. They had already stacked up 16 Quad 1 victories during the regular season, more than any other team in the nation. So this is a team that has done plenty of winning against elite programs all season long.
Duke has Cooper Flagg. Yes, Flagg rolled an ankle during the ACC Tournament. Yes, the ACC was pretty soft this year. However, Flagg flourished in each of the four games so far in the Big Dance. And while North Carolina and N.C. State might not have what they have had in the past, Duke doesn’t have any of the flaws that the rest of the ACC showed this year.
Final Four Betting Markets for the NCAA Championship Game
You can choose from the point spread, the moneyline and the point total if you’re looking for traditional single-game bets. You can also pair two or more bets together to form a parlay (and don’t miss our special article about parlays and the Final Four). There’s also player prop betting – picking individual players to meet and exceed (or not) certain statistical targets. There’s even live betting, where you can take advantage of floating odds that change as the action dictates over the course of the game.
The Smartest NCAA Championship Game Bets
The point total is a wager where research into recent form and performances can pay off. Houston led the nation in defensive efficiency this year, which is one reason why the over-under on their matchup with Duke is so much lower than the other national semifinal. The odds are closer to even with a balanced point total, but if you’re noticing some recent trends for one of the two teams, you can sometimes find an imbalance.
Potential Sure Pick for This Year’s NCAA Championship Game
I don’t think Duke will beat Houston by more than five points. The Cougars are just too stout on defense, and they have the clutch shooters to stay close with the Blue Devils. Their ball security will keep Duke from getting the transition baskets that they might use to build a larger lead.
Common Mistakes to Avoid in Championship Game Betting
As always, don’t send good money after bad. If you don’t like how your wager on Houston-Duke turned out, don’t follow it up with an emotional bet on Florida-Auburn designed to recoup your losses and then some. Take the time to do the research on each bet, and remember that each game is its own separate event.
Also, don’t bet money you can’t afford to lose. Once you know the size of your bankroll (the amount of money you have on hand to bet without sacrificing your personal expenses), then don’t put more than 3% of it down on any single bet.
Final Four Betting: Ready to Bet on March Madness?
Xbet is one of the premier online sportsbooks carrying action on March Madness. Whether you use Xbet or another book, though, make sure to bet wisely and remember that research produces results.
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