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Let’s take a closer look at the March Madness betting predictions, likely field and talk about teams we expect to see in the Elite 8 as well as how to identify Cinderella teams before they knock your picks out of the bracket.
March Madness Betting Predictions, Analysis & Handicaps
Who Will Make the Big Dance?
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament invites 68 teams
Thirty-two of them get an automatic bid after winning their conference tournament. The other 36 receive at-large bids from the selection committee, which also seeds them. The bracket consists of four regions, each with 16 teams, for a total of 64.
However, there are four games that take place before the first round – called the First Four. The lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams square off – the lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers play for 16-seed positions in the bracket, and the at-large teams play for 11-seed positions.
Teams that do not win their conference tournament but who are in the AP Top 25 or NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) will generally get an at-large spot. Sometimes the committee overlooks those metrics, though, such as in 2004, when Utah State went 25-2 in the regular season but lost in their conference tournament and didn’t make the Big Dance despite being in the Top 25.
The NET ranking system includes game results, strength of schedule, location of key games, scoring margin, net defensive and offensive efficiency, and quality of wins and losses. To determine the quality, the NCAA uses a “quadrant” system, in which opponents are listed as Quad 1-4 depending on the location of the game and their NET ranking at the time when they play.
The field of “bracketology”
This topic was popularized by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi – has emerged to project, on a week-by-week basis, which teams will get into the field of 68. As of this writing, he has 16 teams “on the bubble” – which means their chances of getting in are precarious. Right now, his last eight teams to make it are: Utah State, Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, San Diego State, BYU, Pitt, and Nebraska.
His “First Four Out”
Traditionally, the teams that don’t make the Big Dance but do get the four 1-seeds in the NIT – would be UCF, Xavier, Arizona State, and USC. His “Next Four Out” – teams that would typically get high seeds in the NIT – include Wake Forest, SMU, North Carolina, and Arkansas. Obviously, according to March Madness betting predictions, these teams could move up and down depending on how they play in the last three to four weeks of conference action as well as in their respective conference tournaments.
Elite 8 Showdowns: Handicapping the Most Intense Matchups
We don’t have the brackets yet, of course, and we won’t have them until Selection Sunday
Yes, the bracket is split into geographical regions, but it’s been decades since teams were actually all assigned to the geographical region in which they play. If three teams from the East Coast all earn 1-seeds, you’ll see them all over the country.
From Joe Lunardi’s projected brackets, though, one intriguing possible matchup from the South would involve 2-seed Houston and 1-seed Auburn. The Cougars (17-4) had a 33-game home winning streak snapped last week by Texas Tech. At the time, no other Division I team had a longer active home winning streak. We’ll see how they respond when Oklahoma State visits on Tuesday. Houston has length on the perimeter and quality rebounding inside. When their outside shooting is on, they’re just about impossible to beat.
The Tigers (20-1) are the top-ranked team in the nation and would hold the top overall seed in the bracket if things hold. They have currently won 13 in a row. Since Bruce Pearl came down from Tennessee in 2014-15, Auburn has pulled off five winning streaks of at least 12 games; right now, they have a 13-game winning streak going, heading into Tuesday night’s home date with the Oklahoma Sooners. If seeding holds and Houston takes on Auburn, Houston’s defense will be tasked with slowing down Auburn’s high-flying offensive attack.
In the West region, I think projected 1-seed Tennessee is a little shaky
Yes, they held Florida to just 44 points despite missing two starters, but I think a team that slows the game down like 4-seed Wisconsin will punch their ticket home in the Sweet 16. On the other side of the bracket, Iowa State has a reputation for getting a high seed and then falling off the table in the Big Dance. 7-seed UConn is lurking on that side of the West – so how would an Elite 8 game between this two look?
The Badgers (17-5) are 4-0 this season when John Tonje scores at least 25 points. The Wisconsin guard has been filling up the basket lately, and his team has been cruising as a result. The Huskies (16-6) were really starting to list, but then they won at Marquette. The Huskies have made a reputation the last two seasons for turning things up once the calendar hits March. To get to the Elite 8 (and beyond), the Huskies would definitely be approaching Cinderella status, but this is a team that knows what it takes to win as an underdog on this stage.
In the Midwest region, can 1-seed Alabama get by Saint Mary’s?
Um, yes. The Gaels have all kinds of talent, for a West Coast Conference team, but Nate Oats’ offense should be able to take charge of this game in the first half. Whether the Tide can get by 4-seed Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 is a tougher question, but I still think Alabama can hold off a Red Raider team that can get crazy hot shooting out of its backcourt.
A matchup between 1-seed Alabama and 2-seed Purdue in the Elite 8 would be something to see, though. The Crimson Tide (19-3) have a 32-game winning streak going when they are up by at least 10 at the intermission, a streak that dates back to March 10, 2022, when they shockingly lost to Vanderbilt. Purdue has a reputation for being an inside-first team on offense, playing at a more pedestrian pace, which should keep things closer than a more track-meet approach. The Boilermakers (17-5) are taking care of business in the Big Ten, but it’s hard to see Purdue matching Alabama’s scoring firepower in this potential showdown.
March Madness Betting Predictions & Upsets: Spotting Cinderellas
We published a full-length article about “Cinderella” teams last week – the ones who either snagged an automatic qualifier bid to the Big Dance because they won one of the smaller conference tournaments, or bigger schools who got at-large bids but are still fairly low seeds and then go on a run. Last year, the big Cinderella was the N.C. State Wolfpack, who came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament and snagged an 11-seed.
These transfers have added INSTANT impact this season 🔥 Who else would you add to @TheAndyKatz‘s list?#B1GMBBall pic.twitter.com/mSVcOfFZLF
— Big Ten Men’s Basketball (@B1GMBBall) February 5, 2025
Despite their 17-14 final record for the regular season, they rolled all the way to the Elite Eight, with 2-seed Marquette as their most notable victim. Cinderella teams just about always see their dreams end before the end of the tournament – although 8-seed Villanova won the whole thing back in 1985, so you just never know. One of the more recent Cinderella stories was Loyola-Chicago. The Rambles entered the tournament as an 11-seed in 2018 and made it all the way to the Final Four, just two wins short of their first national championship since 1963.
So how can you spot a Cinderella?
There are some metrics that make it easier than you might think. You don’t want to just take every underdog in the bracket – as the rounds go by, you’ll see your winnings decreasing as teams regress toward their normal performances. One metric that you can use is elite offensive efficiency, a number that KenPom developed. If you are looking at an underdog that ranked in the top 50 in the nation in offensive efficiency, their chances of making the Sweet 16 is pretty favorable even if their seeding is low.
That 2018 Loyola-Chicago team fit the profile. So did another 11-seed in that same 2018 bracket that also made the Final Four – the Syracuse Orange. Cornell entered the 2010 tournament as a 12-seed and got to the Sweet 16. It doesn’t guarantee a deep run, but that number has a great chance of getting your underdog to the second weekend of the tournament.
Another useful metric is turnover margin
If you can take the ball away from your opponent, you get free extra chances at the basket. In 2011, VCU went to the Final Four after entering asn an 11-seed, and they had a 5.0 turnover percentage differential between takeaways and giveaways. In 2005, Wisconsin-Milwaukee made it to the Sweet 16 as a 12-seed, and they took the ball away on a whopping 24.5% of opponent possessions. That number ranked 32nd in the nation.
They stopped Alabama and BC in the first two rounds of the tournament, prying the ball away 41 times combined while only coughing it up 23 times. They ran a full-court pressure scheme that frustrated teams and helped them get to the third round.
Take a closer look at the team’s roster as well
Teams that have more experience at key positions tend to go further. It’s true that blue-chip recruits tend to last a season or two at the college level before trying their hand at the NBA, but teams that keep their players three or four years can sneak up on “one-and-done” programs.
Obviously, Kentucky’s 2012 team and UCLA’s 2015 team showed that programs with young, elite first- and second-year talent can win titles, but we’re talking about looking for Cinderellas to make runs that are deeper than expected. Both Cornell (2010) and Richmond (2011) made it a couple of rounds further than the sports betting world expected, and the top three scorers on each of those teams were seniors. It’s hard to find teams with three starters that are seniors these days, but this is a factor that still plays a role.
The 🔟 finalists for the Julius Erving Award 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XJAH4SLrKp
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 5, 2025
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