The Atlanta Falcons and quarterback Kirk Cousins are going to have to make their partnership work, if only because they’re kind of stuck together.
After Cousins played largely commendable football for the franchise through the start of November, he’s been on a downward slope over the last month.
The Falcons are 0-3 in that stretch as a result, dropping a close game to the archrival New Orleans Saints, getting blown out by the Denver Broncos and most recently falling at home to the Los Angeles Chargers because of a 4-pick Cousins game. A bye week is tucked in between Denver and L.A.
Cousins’ game against the Chargers is the only game where you can actively point to him as the glaring issue. He wasn’t great against Denver and was just passable against New Orleans, but both of those games featured deliriously icky play from the Falcons’ defense.
However, against Los Angeles, Atlanta’s defense came through after two weeks off and Cousins still threw the game away with four interceptions. With 2024 first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on the bench after a curious offseason where the team added both players, the controversial chickens are coming home to roost in Flowery Branch.
More than any point in the season, even in Week 1 when Cousins looked like a petrified statue in the pocket, the calls are growing for the Falcons to bail on Cousins and finally turn to Penix for the future. With the Falcons at 6-6 and losing grip on the NFC South, would Atlanta actually do this?
Probably not. Barring the kind of epic collapse that makes the franchise think Cousins is beyond the point of no return, both the Falcons and Cousins have lots of incentive to make their relationship work, at least through 2025.
First, Cousins got the Falcons to 6-3 ahead of a stretch of playing a hated rival and two of the top five defenses in the NFL with Denver and Los Angeles. While the quarterback was not what he needed to be in that stretch, it’s hard to ignore the games where Cousins has played well and where he got the team when he was firing on all cylinders.
A largely immobile, older quarterback playing against elite defenses like Denver and Los Angeles is probably not going to give you what you want. Cousins has never fared well against pressure, and those two teams are excellent at getting after the quarterback. They also have outstanding secondaries. While Cousins stunk against the Chargers and underwhelmed against the Broncos, he will not face defenses of that caliber every single week.
To be honest, Cousins’ best games came against struggling defenses this season, ones unable to get after him that allowed him to get into a rhythm and slice up opposing secondaries with ease. He was solid in September, and pretty outstanding in October, sans a rough game against the Seattle Seahawks that rattled him in the pocket.
Ironically, the Falcons’ six losses (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Seattle, New Orleans, Denver, Los Angeles) all came against teams with staunch pass rushes that were able to pressure Cousins in the pocket. Atlanta’s defense struggled to varying degrees in all of those contests, but putting heat on Cousins was a winning formula.
That’s a bit of a through line in the quarterback’s career. If you can’t touch Cousins and he’s free to do what he wants, he’s going to make you pay for it. It’s just a question of how much the Falcons can get out of him when he’s under duress with his inability to scramble. He is who he is at this point.
Penix is not a classically mobile quarterback, but Cousins’ entire tenure in Atlanta will be followed by people calling for the former Washington star when Cousins has a bad game like he did against the Chargers. The Falcons felt so motivated to draft Penix for the future that they accepted this awkward dynamic in the interim, and it’ll be one they have to navigate very carefully until Cousins is elsewhere.
Even if it has its doubts, the team might really be stuck with Cousins next season, even with his age and limitations. Atlanta would incur a $65 million dead cap hit if it cut Cousins outright next spring, and a pre-June 1 trade would only take that number down to $37.5 million. Plus, Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he would have to approve any potential suitor should a trade come up.
It’s also fair wondering if the Falcons could even find a trade partner next year if the team wanted to move on from the veteran. There just aren’t many franchises that make sense for Cousins, and there probably aren’t many franchises Cousins would feel comfortable joining at this point in his career.
Cousins said in the spring he wants Atlanta to be his final stop. How many teams would he actually want to join at this point post-Falcons?
With quarterback-needy teams likely to find guys in the draft and quarterback Sam Darnold about to get paid as a free agent, Cousins might be down to teams like the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans as possible suitors (if they’d even want him or be willing to take on Cousins’ contract). His options for a new home would be slim unless he was comfortable being a backup or competing for the job with another quarterback, which we really doubt he would be at this point. Could you blame him?
Plus, Falcons coach Raheem Morris has been adamant that Cousins is their guy and they have a plan for Penix they’re sticking with right now.
The most likely scenario for the Falcons and Cousins is that these two sides still want to be with each other through the 2025 season. By that time, Cousins’ contract will be much easier to shed for Atlanta, Penix will have two years of developing behind the scenes under his belt and Cousins may reach the point of retirement if he feels he can no longer play at a high level.
For Atlanta, that may put a hard ceiling on their Super Bowl aspirations if Cousins never regains the mobility to run a sturdy play-action passing game in the NFL. However, he should still be competent enough to keep the Falcons relevant and in the mix in the division until Penix takes over as long as he doesn’t regress with his age to the point of being unplayable.
Even if Cousins was playing better, Atlanta still has holes on its roster to fix and is technically in the first year of a new regime with Morris and company. There is still work to be done and growth to be had for the Falcons to really contend in the NFC. Cousins can’t rush the passer. This team would probably crumble against the NFL’s elite come playoff time, but that’s not a shock given where the franchise is. This roster needs more talent, and this coaching staff needs more time to learn how to play against the league’s best teams.
Atlanta going 6-3 to start the year came with a good bit of luck and a good bit of Cousins playing to his standard. With both of those fading over the last month, the team’s flaws are more on display. The Chargers game finally saw the Falcons’ defense step up in a big way, but then Cousins malfunctioned.
That’s just what this 2024 Falcons team is, inconsistent. It’s why making the playoffs would feel great for the team and its fans but wouldn’t necessarily signal a big January run is coming. It’s why Cousins can’t solely be blamed for what happens to the team this season, even if him continuing to not play well would be a big push in the wrong direction.
Even if Penix is right there and could probably benefit from starting reps, there is just too much pointing to the Falcons and Cousins exhausting all options to make their marriage work.
As the season goes on, the Falcons will face less stiff defensive competition. Don’t be surprised if Cousins starts to find his footing in that time and justifying this partnership for at least another year becomes much easier (in theory). Even with Penix in the equation, this will still probably be Cousins’ team for at least another season… barring disaster.
If it’s not, the franchise will have to accept its signing of the veteran was a terrible move and own the pain of not having the cap reward of Penix’s rookie contract because of Cousins’ towering dead money hit. Denver made it work with Russell Wilson and Bo Nix, so maybe it’s not impossible… but it’s also not something you want to have to do.
For how strange this whole quarterback situation has been for the Falcons, it’d be hard to see the franchise taking that big of a defeat with the Cousins signing. It’s far more likely Atlanta give Cousins another season to be who they signed as opposed to rushing Penix on the field before the franchise is ready.
As with a lot in this league, business decisions tend to rule the day.