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Political Betting Props 2024 | The presidential election in the United States of America follows a process that is much more arcane than simply winning the most votes.
Instead, the winner of the Electoral College gets the presidency, and each state receives a number of electoral votes based on the number of people who live in that state.
Popular vote in US Presidential elections was not recorded for the first nine elections. Controversy in the 1820 election led to its counting. The legislature resolves tie when no candidate wins a majority.
In five elections since 1824, the presidential winner did not have a majority of popular votes. In 2016, Donald J. Trump won with 46.1% of popular votes, defeating Hillary Clinton, who received 48.2%.
So to include the presidential election in your online betting might seem like an unusual use for your money, but political wagers are popular, so we have our insights for you on this election, now less than two weeks away.
Political Betting Props 2024 on the 2024 U.S. Election and Other Markets
The polling on the presidential election has Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris close to even, although Harris has a slight lead in national polling. The betting market is significantly different. Polymarket, a trading platform for cryptocurrency, lists Trump’s probability of winning at 63%, actually a recent low.
Trump in the Lead
Global exchanges are favoring Trump with increased betting activity, possibly influenced by wealthy bettors. Polymarket is investigating this trend. Favorable polling in battleground states, where candidate margins are tight, is also contributing to Trump’s growing odds.
These states include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Again, though, these probabilities are based on polling results, and there are also reports that Republicans are adding surveys to the averages that are not statistically valid to make it seem more likely that Trump will win.
The Statistics
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, predicts a 50-50 race but believes Trump will win based on his intuition. He argues polling doesn’t capture Trump’s true support and pollsters aren’t reaching his voters. While he incorrectly predicted Clinton’s victory in 2016, Silver still trusts his judgment over the data.
Polymarket poll is just few weeks ahead of other [paid for and often fake] poll.
Few weeks ago, polymarket was like current NY times poll or @FiveThirtyEight. And what you are seeing today in Polymarket, you will see the reflection / correction in most mainstream poll in few… pic.twitter.com/EURK0sbIvV
— deXer (@DexerXP) October 23, 2024
Democrats
It is also worth noting that Democrats have outperformed the polling in actual elections since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v Wade decision and eliminated access to legal abortion as a federal right based on the right to privacy.
That returned the responsibility for determining abortion’s legality to the states. Many Republican-led states have passed near-total bans on abortion, while many Democratic-led states have passed laws making it easier for women to travel from other states and receive abortions.
In some Republican-led states, citizens have filed petitions to amend their state constitutions to establish a right to abortion, and those initiatives have been successful.
From that decision in 2022 through special elections in 2023 and 2024, Democrats have won elections that they were predicted to lose – and when they were projected to win narrowly, they have won emphatically. The implication could be that the Democrats are likely to gain more than the polls indicate.
Biden’s Re-Election
After the Democratic National Convention, where President Joe Biden received the party’s nomination to run for re-election, a poor debate performance led the Democrats to pressure Biden to step down, and eventually he bowed out in favor of his current vice president.
Kamala Harris has received a bump in polling since that time, but the numbers have not gone convincingly in her direction yet.
The States
Early voting has begun in most U.S. states with high interest in the election. In Texas, over 843,000 people, around 4.5% of eligible voters, cast their ballots on the first day of early voting. While not as high as in 2020 due to COVID-19 measures, interest remains strong.
Other Props to Consider
Xbet are also offering odds on which party will control the Senate, with Republicans as -350 favorites. This is partly based on the assumption of Trump winning the presidential election, which would give potential vice president J.D. Vance a deciding vote in case of a tie.
The polling site 270toWin projects that the Republicans have at least 51-48 control, with the election in Ohio as the last toss-up. In Montana, incumbent Jon Tester is a Democrat in a state that is otherwise red, although Republican Tim Sheehy has been polling very well.
Not like Football
Placing large bets on football prop bets, like the University of Texas vs. Vanderbilt University game, is challenging due to various factors. However, researching this game can provide more reliable data compared to other online information, aiding in making a well-informed decision on the point spread.
College football has a lot of vagaries, not the least of which comes from expecting young men in their late teens and early twenties to consistently execute under high pressure. However, the difficulties of finding reliable polling data on which to base your wager makes this sort of political betting even more volatile.
Political Betting Props & Prediction
Vice President Harris is predicted to win the election due to Democrats outperforming polling since the federal abortion rights overturn. Recent defections from the Republican Party to support Harris, like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, emphasize “country over party.”
Given Trump’s 34 felony convictions, liability verdict for sexual assault, and other controversies, it’s hard to believe that the polling accurately represents voter sentiment. While I don’t predict a Harris landslide by any means, I believe she will outperform statistical expectations in enough battleground states to win.
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