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UFC 306 will appear in the Sphere in Las Vegas this Saturday night! The event has been branded Riyads Season Noche UFC for sponsorship purposes and is the second Noche UFC event celebrating Mexican Independence Day.
The event will narrate combat history in Mexico with six different film clips between bouts during the main card.
The headliner is a UFC Bantamweight Championship bout as champion Sean O’Malley looks to defend his belt against Merab Dvalishvili.
The co-main event is also a title fight, as Alexa Grasso will defend her UFC Women’s Flyweight belt against former champ Valentina Shevchenko in their trilogy bout.
UFC 306 Betting O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Odds & Preview | MMA Odds
We have the full fight card for you, as well as sports betting predictions for the two title fights.
Sean O’Malley -135 vs Merab Dvalishvili +110
O’Malley (18-1, 10-1) vs Dvalishvili (17-4, 10-2) represents a tough test for O’Malley in his title defense.
O’Malley got off to a spectacular start in UFC before injuring his foot in a decision victory over Andre Soukhamthath.
It took him a couple of years to recover from the injury (and from issues dealing with drug tests), but he returned as a knockout specialist.
Marlon Vera was able to derail him with leg kicks, leading to more injury time off. When he returned again, he got some fairly winnable fights until he was matched with former chap Petr Yan near the end of 2022.
He won a controversial decision on the cards after surviving three rounds of punishment. That got him a title bout against Aljamain Sterling. He was behind on points, but then delivered a knockout counter in the second.
He defended his title against Vera in a March rematch, picking him apart and then fending off his attempts to come back on points, lasting five rounds in an impressive show of durability.
When Dvalishvili entered the UFC, his contract came when he used a spinning back fist to deliver a knockout just 15 seconds into a fight.
He came into the promotion with two straight losses but has not lost since. Frankie Saenz brought enough volume to win on the cards, and he lost to Ricky Simon after losing consciousness in a guillotine choke when the last horn sounded.
Since then, Dvalishvili has broken several records in the area of takedown volume. He beat Yan, trying 49 takedowns and completing 11.
He was able to harass and wear out Henry Cejudo, the former Olympic wrestling champion, fairly easily in February. His striking game has become impressive, although he doesn’t bother much with defense.
He hasn’t needed it so far; even when such fighters as Marlon Moraes have delivered some bombs in the early rounds, but Dvalishvili has looked unfazed, continuing to deliver volume and pace to wear out his opponents.
O’Malley has, at least historically, been breakable in terms of cardio. O’Malley should be able to find an opening to land a bomb as Dvalishvili keeps getting within range to try a takedown.
UFC 306 Betting Pick: O’Malley wins via knockout
The champ is good to go 👊@SugaSeanMMA is on weight at 135lbs!
[ #UFC306 | @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/JFMXLLLIe2
— UFC (@ufc) September 13, 2024
Alexa Grasso -135 vs Valentina Shevchenko +110
Grasso (16-3-1, 8-3-1) vs Shevchenko (23-4-1, 12-3-1) is a trilogy fight that is long overdue. After that, the UFC Women’s Flyweight division can move on to a new rivalry.
Back in 2023, Shevchenko’s hammerlock on the division seemed to be waning.
Her tactics included the use of counters to slow down the fight pace, so that she could bring in her elite wrestling and clinch game.
Taila Santos challenged Shevchenko for the belt back in 2022, and her outright strength almost got her a win, as Shevchenko barely survived a split decision.
When she met Grasso in March 2023, Shevchenko was able to slow her down through wrestling.
It looked like Shevchenko would roll to a win on the cards, but then she went with a spinning kick that Grasso anticipated before jumping onto Shevchenko’s back and taking the belt with a submission.
Grasso’s title win ended a pattern of inconsistency for Grasso within UFC.
She joined the promotion in 2016, winning her debut convincingly but following that up with a head-scratching loss to Felice Herrig. She would win a fight in UFC, but then fall prey to some of the same issues.
Furthermore, she left strawweight behind for flyweight in 2020, and that made all the difference.
She had more speed advantages as a striker, but she also had the physicality to win on the mat. Once she took the belt from Shevchenko, she had arrived.
In their rematch in September 2023, Shevchenko controlled the flow, but Grasso had some big moments in what turned out to be a split draw.
Shevchenko likes to chew up the clock with time on the mat, while Grasso’s penchant for boxing and for taking on all comers will bring her some big moments.
This fight is essentially a coin flip, but Shevchenko’s more advanced age gives Grasso the nod here.
UFC 306 Betting Pick: Grasso wins via decision
Ready to defend her title 🇲🇽@AlexaGrasso comes in at 124lbs!
[ #UFC306 | @RiyadhSeason #NocheUFC LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET/7pmPT ] pic.twitter.com/P0LBrva5QS
— UFC (@ufc) September 13, 2024
Main Card at Pay Per View
- Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili (UFC Bantamweight Championship)
- Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko (UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship)
- Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes (Featherweight)
- Daniel Zellhuber vs Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight)
- Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Ode Osbourne (Flyweight)
Preliminary Card at ESPNews/ESPN+
- Irene Aldana vs Norma Dumont (Women’s Bantamweight)
- Igancio Bahamondes vs Manuel Torres (Lightweight)
- Yazmin Jauregui vs Ketlen Souza (Women’s Strawweight)
- Edgar Chairez vs Joshua Van (Flyweight)
Early Preliminary Card at ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass
- Raul Rosas Jr vs Aori Qileng (Bantamweight)
O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Odds For Today
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UFC 306 Betting: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Preview
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