At 0-10-1-2, the Utica Comets will have to become escape artists if they are to save their season.
That is the first issue for these Comets. The second question is quite direct as well. Are more changes from the parent New Jersey Devils on the way?
Going without a win in their first 13 games has put Utica’s season in danger before they have even reached its quarter point. Now already 13 points behind the Rochester Americans and the North Division playoff line, the Comets are falling quickly. A dangerous piece of AHL history also hangs out there. The Baltimore Skipjacks started their 1987-88 season with 18 consecutive losses, all in regulation. Back then, the AHL still had ties, so that slide lasted three more games before Baltimore finally bagged its first win in its 22nd game of the season.
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Not much more went well that season for the Skipjacks, who were playing that season as an independent after their affiliation with the Pittsburgh Penguins had ended. They ended up going 13-58-9, were outscored 434-268, and finished 52 points out of a playoff spot.
That Baltimore team was very much a group of players who had been loaned from other NHL teams, players who had been cast off, and an ever-changing collection of veterans passing through on their way to somewhere else or out of hockey altogether.
But this is a Utica team is not that. This is a team with bona fide prospects. On the blue line alone are Simon Nemec, the second overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, and Seamus Casey, another jewel from that same year’s draft class. Forward Nolan Foote, recalled to New Jersey on Monday along with forward Shane Bowers, is a legitimate NHL prospect. Another forward, Chase Stillman, is a 2021 first-rounder who had a solid rookie performance last season.
Utica’s veteran core is also solid on paper. Up front, Joe Gambardella only returned this past weekend, but Justin Dowling is a long-established veteran forward. There is captain Ryan Schmelzer along with Brian Halonen, who had 20 goals in only 35 games last season. Mike Hardman came over from the Rockford IceHogs after a 22-goal season, though he has been limited to five games. Max Willman has had success at the AHL level. So has Bowers. The back end has experience in Nick DeSimone and Andy Welinski among its experienced hands.
On the ice, however, the results are not there. Shut out four times in 13 games, including in each of their past two home games, the Comets have mustered just 21 goals so far. Their 25.9 shots per game rank them 31st in the AHL. That output, combined with a 6.3 shooting percentage, makes for a lot of frustrating nights both for the Comets and their fans. In net, Nico Daws has numbers that look every bit as bad as Utica’s record. But it’s difficult to fault Daws, someone who has shown that he can succeed at this level. And not when Utica owns the AHL’s worst penalty kill at 71.4 percent.
But those numbers are symptoms. What is the cause? Or causes-plural? Is this record a matter of some seriously unfortunate puck luck or is it more?
Head coach Kevin Dineen, someone who came to Utica in 2021 with NHL head-coaching experience and a deep bench resume, found himself out of a job Nov. 6. That decision pushed assistant coach Ryan Parent into an interim head-coaching role that will go for at least of the rest of this season. But it is not clear at all that it was coaching at the root of the Comets’ issues.
As struggling teams so often do, the Comets have found multiple ways to lose. The Rochester Americans came into Utica back on Nov. 1 and hung eight goals on the Comets. And when it has seemed like the Comets might escape a game with a win, those attempts have fallen apart as well. In a Nov. 9 game at Lehigh Valley, the Comets’ 3-2 survived long into the third period only to see the Phantoms tie it with 3:29 to go. The dagger followed with Lehigh Valley’s winner 3:10 into overtime.
This weekend has road games against Syracuse on Friday and followed by Rochester a night later that start a stretch of 10 of 13 games on the road for the Comets, who only have three home games remaining this calendar year. In short, this situation could get even more out of hand very quickly if the Comets are not able to find the level that they should be capable of playing.
The Dineen firing sent a jolt across the AHL. For one, in-season head-coaching firings are extremely rare in the AHL. Before Dineen’s ouster, an AHL head coach had not been fired in-season since Iowa’s Kurt Kleinendorst in 2014. Dineen is also someone who has shown an ability to both develop and win. Kevin Bahl, Alexander Holtz, and Fabian Zetterlund developed playing for Dineen before advancing to NHL roles in New Jersey and elsewhere. So did Nemec, who spent nearly a full year in the NHL before this recent reassignment to the Comets. Dineen’s 432 coaching wins place fifth in AHL history, and he took the Louis A.R. Pieri Memorial Award as the AHL’s coach of the year in his rookie 2005-06 campaign. And it was just three years ago that he led the Comets to an AHL-record 13 consecutive wins to open the 2021-22 season.
When Dineen arrived, especially with that start to his first season back in 2021, it seemed like this was a different New Jersey development program. Building a winning tradition has been a challenge for the organization going back nearly 25 years. After the Albany River Rats’ powerhouse days of the mid- to late-1990s sent wave after wave of well-prepared players on to New Jersey, the developmental program fell into deep decline. New Jersey affiliates cycled through Albany, Lowell, back to Albany, and then on to Binghamton before ending up in Utica in 2021. Going back to 2001, New Jersey AHL affiliates have only reached the Calder Cup Playoffs six times; the organization’s lone playoff series win at the AHL level came when Albany did so back in 2016. The last time a Devils affiliate went on an extended playoff run was back in 1998 when Albany reached the conference finals.
There may be no clear answer for what has put Utica’s season in danger. Sometimes a mix just does not work even though it seems like it should on paper. That is the nature of sports and something that is even more elusive in the AHL with an ever-changing mix of players and prospects trying to figure themselves out. On Monday alone, the Comets saw Bowers, DeSimone, Dowling, and Foote recalled by New Jersey.
What does matter is making sure that players like Casey, Foote, Nemec, Stillman, and others are able to play in a winning environment, which is why the Devils cannot afford to see this slide extend much longer. If it does, there goes the opportunity for these prospects to play high-pressure, demanding games down the stretch. When the Calder Cup Playoffs arrive in April, those players need to be playing and not packing their bags to head home. And if this team is out of contention by, say, mid-December, then what? Four months is a long time to play out the string.
When the coaching picture changes, and the losses still keep coming, the focus naturally will turn toward the players. Can they find solutions? This league is about finding solutions. It always has been. The NHL team calls up your best player two hours before a game? Find a solution? Need a back-up goaltender on short notice. Work those contacts and come up with an answer. Playing short two players and asked to double-shift? Part of the gig at this level.
These are questions and situations that make the chapters of an AHL team’s season so intriguing. So many external factors – reasons beyond bad bounces, injuries, and such that are the norm at any level of the sport – can impact an AHL team’s season.
The Comets’ ability to find these solutions – and quickly – will be essential if they are to save their season.
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