Nashville Predators fans were greeted with some substantial start-of-the-workweek news on Monday. Kevin Weekes posted to X (formerly Twitter) that he’s heard Yaroslav Askarov has requested a trade and will not be reporting to the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals. This is the answer to the question about the Preds’ goaltending situation many have had.
Now that the Preds have signed star goaltender Juuse Saros to an eight-year deal, it’s unsurprising to hear that Askarov wants out of Nashville. However, the entire situation feels as if it could have been avoided at some juncture by general manager Barry Trotz, who didn’t mince words about the goaltending situation when meeting with the media in June: “You’re ready when you’re ready, not when your agent says you’re ready, or when management says you’re ready. Or the fans or media.”
Askarov, 22, played 44 games with the Admirals last season, finishing with a 30-13-1 record, 2.39 goals against average (an improvement on his prior season, where he finished with a 2.69 goals against average in 48 games), and a .911 save percentage, the same as the previous year.
The difference between the two seasons was Askarov’s performance in the postseason. This spring Admirals head coach Karl Taylor took him out of the net in favor of Troy Grosenick after a couple of abysmal performances, as well as an injury in what the organization felt could have been a long playoff run and a good chance for players to prove themselves in big moments.
Even before his injury, that did not happen for the young netminder.
Many people — myself included — have concerns about signing a soon-to-be 30-year-old Saros to an eight-year contract extension, but Trotz made his decision clear. He upgraded the team via the free-agent market and kept the hot hand around for as long as possible. However, choosing this path means there isn’t a road to a starting job for Askarov, hence the trade request. At this juncture, it feels as if this decision may be a costly mistake, and Trotz didn’t handle the situation as well as he could have.
A Costly Error for the Prospect Pool
Let’s get this out of the way: The Predators’ future becomes drastically worse if/when Askarov leaves the organization.
Picked 11th overall by former Predators general manager David Poile in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, Askarov was viewed as the future in net. With Pekka Rinne retiring the following season and Saros taking the reins, it felt like only a matter of time before Askarov capitalized on his elite athleticism and high ceiling, stole the show in the American League, and took over the starting job with the big club.
Of course, this reality was predicated on Saros not playing as well as he has over the last four seasons. He has finished 11th and 20th in Hart Trophy voting in two of the previous four years and in the top five of Vezina Trophy voting in three of the last four years, with the fourth being when he placed sixth in 2020-21. He has also made the All-Star team all four seasons.
The emergence of Saros made the goaltending situation much more complex, but there’s no doubt that Askarov’s potential is still through the roof.
The Predators are widely regarded as having a strong prospect pool mainly due to their organizational depth, not any specific high-end prospects they possess. If we look at affiliated prospect rankings, such as the most recent one from EliteProspects, the Predators have four prospects in the top 100 but only one in the top 50 (Matthew Wood), and he’s at 49th place.
This ranking does not include goalies, but one must imagine that Askarov, Minnesota Wild goaltending prospect Jesper Wallstedt, and one or two others would be firmly in the top 50.
If the Predators were to move on from Askarov, they would be losing arguably one of the highest-rated prospects in the current pool and the organization’s history.
Actions Speak Louder Than Words
Since becoming the Predators’ general manager, Trotz has made moves to rekindle excitement around the organization. In his first summer as GM he made trades to bring in draft capital and young prospects and bring in Andrew Brunette to coach the team at the beginning of his tenure, showcasing a commitment to a free-flowing and attacking style of hockey.
Then, his first time holding the reins for free agency was one of the biggest days in the team’s history. Trotz brought in Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei within a few hours, addressing significant issues by utilizing all the available cap space.
I need to note before moving on that my opinion on Trotz’s handling of Askarov’s development at this moment does not sway my belief that his tenure has been supremely positive during the short time he has been at the helm. Those moves that I referenced supersede (at least in my mind) the way Trotz has approached developing their young goaltender. However, I still believe there were some mistakes made along the way.
Coming into this saga, Trotz had to choose where to place his commitment: the young goaltender whom he did not draft, who has been the primary starter in the AHL for two seasons but still has parts of his game to improve, or the 29-year-old proven commodity (who should have won a Vezina Trophy by this point). Laying it out like that, it’s not hard to see why Trotz chose the latter. Based on his resume, of course, one would side with Saros being the starter for the foreseeable future.
The problem for many isn’t the resume Trotz chose. From that perspective, it’s the right decision. However, the other dominos that have fallen have many Predators fans a bit reluctant to say it’s the correct route to follow. The only way for them to bring Saros back was on an eight-year deal, a potentially dangerous contract given to a 29-year-old goaltender (one of the most volatile positions in sports), and as a result, the obvious way to begin a process that would push one of the best prospects in the NHL off to the side.
Even with the eight-year deal signed, there was still hope that Askarov could compete for the backup position. Sure, he may still have some things to work on, but in the minds of many, what more does he have to prove in the AHL? What is he learning in the AHL that could not be taught at the highest level, in which he has also had a couple of solid starts (two games played, 1.47 goals against average, and .943 save percentage)? Especially with the new Director of Goaltending, Mitch Korn, back in the fray, it felt like the perfect time for Askarov to come up and play the backup role.
Trotz said in a statement, “The expectation is for the player to report to training camp and compete for a job in September.”
However, he then signed Scott Wedgewood to a two-year deal worth $3 million — realistically, slamming shut the door to Askarov getting a spot in the NHL.
Trotz and the Predators had the chance to bring in one of the most talented goaltending prospects the NHL world has seen in years in a backup role who’s not only more than 90 games in the AHL but gotten solid results there.
Askarov still has pieces of his game to work on; there’s no doubt about that. But the experience he would gain building on two seasons as a starter in the AHL by learning from the games he plays, the goaltending coaches, and the rigors of an NHL schedule — and also Saros himself, another goaltender whose extreme athleticism and success are both well-documented.
At the very worst, Askarov struggles but learns from the best in a minimal number of games. Wedgewood, at 32 years of age, is coming off a season in which he played 32 games, posting a .899 save percentage and a -7.38 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which had him finish 49th of 54 goaltenders who faced a minimum of 1000 unblocked shot attempts throughout the season. That doesn’t mean he can’t bounce back with less playing time, but it’s hard to imagine Askarov would be much worse than that, and, again, even if he were, it wouldn’t be in a substantial number of games.
Final Thoughts
It’s understandable why Trotz chose Saros over Askarov based on pure merit. The known commodity will always trump the risk, especially when the risk is a prospect in which Trotz has far less vested interest. However, the fallout from pen hitting paper on the Saros contract extension, along with the signing of a surprising backup goaltender to firmly block Askarov from even getting a chance at winning the backup job, is to many in the Predators fanbase a mistake.
As Trotz said, goaltenders are ready when they’re ready, not when outside noise like fans, media, or agents say they are. And none of us will know what goes on behind the scenes. But if two straight above-average seasons (with a couple of bumps in the playoffs) in the AHL aren’t enough to even give one of the best talents in the NHL prospect world a chance at “competing for a job” with the big club, what is?
That’s the desired goal, and the alternative is likely losing your highest-end prospect to a trade in which the value coming in return is potentially not adequate. It feels like the first misstep of an otherwise positive beginning to a general managing career.