After an up-and-down regular season amid a roster overhaul, the Nashville Predators entered the playoffs as one of the teams getting the label of “team no one wants to face.”
After all, the Preds went 21-7-3 from the start of February to the end of the regular season, a stretch that included an 18-game point streak that may or may not have been sparked by a canceled trip to see U2 at the Sphere in Vegas. Armed with a stalwart in Juuse Saros in goal, all-world defenseman Roman Josi, a reinvigorated Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg and some young depth with upside, there were thoughts of Nashville being a dark horse in a brutally tough Western Conference.
But just as fast as the Predators came onto the scene, they flamed out in the playoffs, falling in six games to the Vancouver Canucks. Here’s how:
All stats are via Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted.
Difficulties in breaking anything down
Honestly, analysis of this series is tough. How can you have any insights on a series where nothing happened?
Okay, that might be hyperbole, but there’s no denying how low-event this series was. The Colorado Avalanche scored more goals at five-on-five in the first round than Nashville and Vancouver combined. And the Avalanche only played five games. Vegas was the only team to score fewer goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five than Vancouver and Nashville individually.
It wasn’t just the lack of goals, either. High-event hockey is usually defined by a lot of shot attempts for both teams, and this series certainly wasn’t that. Again, no series this year had fewer shot attempts for both sides than this one.
Six games is already a small sample size, but trying to figure out what went wrong in a series where there were only 15 goals at five-on-five makes it much harder.
Top line did its job, but it needed more help
But when it comes to what actually happened in this series, Nashville was neck-and-neck with Vancouver at five-on-five. The Predators lost both the shot attempts battle (52.45% to 47.55%) and the expected goals battle (53.3% to 46.7%) and were barely outscored 8-7. It was tightly contested, and the margins don’t really signal a clear winner.
It should be noted, however, that Nashville’s first two games were ugly at five-on-five. The Predators had an expected-goals share of 45.4% in Game 1 before a smash-and-grab of a win in Game 2. Nashville was out-attempted 64-22 at five-on-five in that one and recorded a measly 27.2% xGF%, yet the Predators won 4-1 while outscoring Vancouver 3-1 at five-on-five. Hockey!
Nashville’s top line of Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist and Filip Forsberg was a big driver of the Predators’ success in the regular season, and the playoffs were no different. The unit sported an expected-goals share over 50% in the series, and its most common matchup was against Brock Boeser’s line. Forsberg ended up as the team’s leading scorer in the playoffs with six points in six games, and Nyquist wasn’t far behind with four.
But things further down the lineup weren’t as rosy. When O’Reilly and crew were off the ice, Nashville’s xGF% at five-on-five plummeted to a woeful 43.6%, and the Predators were outscored 5-3.
Using with/without splits is already perilous, and doing it for a six-game series is even more precarious. But it is worth noting, especially because that gap didn’t exist during the regular season.
Where Nashville struggled was with the three-man unit of Kiefer Sherwood, Cole Smith and Michael McCarron. That line finished the series with a putrid 29.5% expected-goals share, and Vancouver had 10 high-danger chances to Nashville’s three when it was on the ice. That line also had the second-most ice time at five-on-five, though that’s partly because of Nashville shuffling its middle six.
Nashville had solid series out of the likes of Luke Evangelista (one goal but 68.2% expected-goals share), Jason Zucker and, of course, Josi. But it’s clear that their stars needed some more help.
Goaltending: Double-edged sword
Goaltending was a big story in this series, but not in the way that people thought at the start of the postseason.
On the Canucks’ side, starter Thatcher Demko won Game 1 and was out the rest of the way with an injury. Backup Casey DeSmith played in Games 2 and 3 but also suffered an injury, turning the crease over to Arturs Silovs.
Unfortunately for Nashville, Silovs was up to the task. He finished the series with just five goals against on 7.86 expected at all strengths. In a series where goals came at a premium, that’s a big deal.
But Saros was just as good, saving two goals above expected. At five-on-five, he was incredible, only allowing eight goals on nearly 12 expected.
Saros stole Game 2 for Nashville, though he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory in the Predators’ late collapse in Game 4. But he played well enough in the last two games for Nashville to win both, yet the Predators dropped both. It was a mixed bag at times, but it was more positive than negative.
Saros hasn’t had the best of times in the playoffs, though his history is limited due to the Predators’ own struggles in the postseason and an injury that cost him an appearance in 2022 after dragging Nashville to the playoffs in the first place. It’s the first playoff run where he’s been Nashville’s primary goaltender and finished with a positive GSAx (goals saved above expected) at 3.84, according to Evolving Hockey.
Frustrations will continue on Broadway, as the Predators still haven’t won a playoff series since 2018. Breaking the drought was there for the taking, but Nashville once again came up just short. Such is life in hockey in spring.