Who’s In, Who Will Make It – and Who Won’t

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Two playoff spots remain up for grabs heading into the bulk of Week 17 action. The biggest enigma among the five remaining teams has to be the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Anthony Richardson entered the season as the starter, went to the bench and watched Joe Flacco play ineffectively, and then returned and has continued to be inconsistent. Tailback Jonathan Taylor is just as difficult to read as the former Wisconsin star came out of nowhere to run for 218 yards in a Week 16 game that saw the Colts go up 38-7 on the Titans before allowing three touchdowns and two two-point conversions to make the game a one-score affair with about three minutes remaining. Instead of asking which Colts team will show up from one game to the next, we should be asking which Colts team will show up from one possession to the next.

LA Chargers

The Chargers looked salty in their win over Denver. Yes, the fair catch free kick, the first that any team had converted into a field goal since the venerable Ray Wersching pulled it off in 1976, was a cool asterisk on the night, but Justin Herbert’s gritty effort in the win was the most impressive part. The Chargers’ defense is not consistent, although they did lock down the Broncos for the last 2 ½ quarters, exposing a Denver team that relies on quick, short passes from Nix to his checkdown targets to move the ball.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are showing what happens when a rookie quarterback hits the klieg lights of pressure late in the season. The offense got tentative down the stretch against the Chargers, and the defense tackled poorly and failed to get after Herbert. When the confidence at the top of the team starts to dwindle, the rest of the team tends to follow. Denver plays Cincinnati on Saturday before seeing Kansas City in Week 18 (although the Chiefs should put a lot of their starters on the bench). The likely reward for the Broncos if they do make the playoffs is a date with Buffalo, but that’s better than watching the playoffs on television.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals still don’t play much defense at all, but they’ve turned a 4-8 record at the end of November into a 7-8 situation with two games left. Their last two games come against Denver and Pittsburgh. Amarius Mims injured his ankle with the game and got into an argument with his O-line coach, so he’s questionable for Saturday’s game. His pass blocking has been surprisingly solid. Of the five quarterbacks on these teams that are on the edge of playoff contention in the AFC, the most dangerous, far and away, has to be Joe Burrow.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins didn’t have Jaylen Waddle against the 49ers last week, so they pushed the ball to tailback De’Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith, who are tied for the team lead in receptions with 76 apiece. Tyreek Hill is the team leader in yardage, and he has five touchdown catches since Week 5. Consistency remains an issue with Tua Tagovailoa, but when he’s on, there are few quarterbacks as accurate in medium-range passes, which can lead to big chunk plays when a player as fast as Hill is on the receiving end. The Dolphins finish at Cleveland and at the Jets, though, and this is a team that has historically struggled in cold-weather environments.
 

Current NFL Playoff Picture, Who’s In: L.A. Chargers (6th seed), Cincinnati Bengals (7th seed)

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NFC Current Playoff Picture

Teams that have clinched:

• Detroit Lions (13-2, lead NFC North)
• Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, lead NFC East)
• 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2, 2nd in NFC North)
• 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4, 3rd in NFC North)

Teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today:

• L.A. Rams (9-6, lead NFC West)
• Atlanta Falcons (8-7, lead NFC South)
• 7. Washington Commanders (10-5, 2nd in NFC East)

Teams that could still make the playoffs:

• 8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, 2nd in NFC South)
• 9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7, 2nd in NFC West)

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If you’re wondering why the NFC’s third and fourth seeds aren’t known yet, it’s because no one has clinched the NFC South or West. The NFC North and NFC East are surprisingly strong divisions, so the South and West will likely just get their division winners into the postseason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s start with the Buccaneers. In Week 15, they traveled West and routed the Chargers, 40-17. Then they went to Dallas and absolutely gave away a game to a Cowboys team that is out of hte playoffs. Their pass defense made backup quarterback Cooper Rush look All-Pro, and neither side of the ball showed much urgency until the second half.

Baker Mayfield threw a touchdown pass that his receiver allowed Jourdan Lewis to take away from him on the way to the ground. The Tampa Bay defense dropped an easy interception. Then, when there was still a chance to drive for a tying field goal, Rachaad White fumbled the ball away. If the Buccaneers miss the playoffs, this is the loss that they will look back on. There are few quarterbacks as gritty as Mayfield, and the team tends to reflect his competitive fire, but they came out flat in the first half and paid the price.

Switching quarterbacks while tied for the division lead is uncommon, but Kirk Cousins has made it difficult for his teams. Enter Michael Penix Jr, the rookie from Washington. Bijan Robinson scored two rushing touchdowns, and the defense excelled against the Giants, featuring two pick-sixes, a fumble recovery, and a turnover on downs. Penix threw one interception, deflected by tight end Kyle Pitts. If he leads the Falcons to a Week 17 win in Washington, they could secure the division before a final home game against Carolina, while Tampa Bay faces easier opponents.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders roared back in the fourth quarter to get a most unlikely win over the Philadelphia Eagles as they put the ball on the carpet five times for Philadelphia to pick up. However, Philadelphia only managed 13 points off those turnovers. They also couldn’t run the ball unless the ball was in Daniels’ hands. There are some weaknesses on this team, as we saw on the team’s three-game skid in November, and as we saw despite the miraculous win over Chicago, but this is also a team with a high ceiling.

LA Rams

All the Rams have to do is keep winning to get in. We saw them get into a slog with the Jets on Sunday, going into the fourth quarter behind and only having run 32 offensive plays. However, the last 13 minutes saw three scores for the Rams, who recovered a fumble and landed on a muffed punt. Tight end Tyler Higbee, in his first action since an ACL tear in the 2023 postseason, had just one catch in the game, but it was the game-winning touchdown. This is a team that, like the Bengals, has plenty of flaws but is extremely difficult to eliminate.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks only have a 3-6 record at home, which is a huge reason why they haven’t already clinched the NFC West. They have lost two in a row, including a tough setback against Minnesota that saw Geno Smith throw three touchdown passes but also gift the Vikings with a pair of interceptions. He now has 15 picks on the season, but if the running game were more productive, he wouldn’t have as much pressure on his shoulders. Seattle penalties were also a problem as two big runs from Kenneth Walker III and several nice returns on special teams were taken off the board due to miscues.

Current NFL Playoff Picture, Who’s In: Los Angeles (wins NFC West, 3rd seed), Tampa Bay (wins NFC South, 4th seed), Green Bay (6th seed), Washington (7th seed)

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With 2 more weeks of the regular season, here is what the current playoff picture looks like 🏆 pic.twitter.com/hr9ujjjwIy

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 24, 2024

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