When Jannik Sinner powered his way to a straight sets victory over America’s Taylor Fritz in the final of the US Open, he did more than win his second Grand Slam of the year.
The Italian also all but assured that he will end 2024 as the year-end world No.1.
Sinner has been world No.1 since first ascending to the pinnacle of the ATP Rankings in early June 2024. However, the 23-year-old has been locked in a tight battle with Carlos Alcaraz, and to a lesser extent Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, for who will finish the year in the prestigious position.
Now, with another 2,000 points added to his tally off the back of his title in New York, it will be nigh on impossible for any other player to catch Sinner over the next two months.
Updated Race for Year-End No.1
As of the week after the US Open, here’s how the race for the year-end No.1 spot is shaping up:
- Jannik Sinner – 9,000 points
- Alexander Zverev – 6,115 points
- Carlos Alcaraz – 6,010 points
- Daniil Medvedev – 4,420 points
- Taylor Fritz – 3,890 points
Sinner has a 2,885 point lead over the next closest player in the 2024 Race to Turin. The Italian is on 9,000 points, while Zverev and Alcaraz are on 6,115 and 6,010 points respectively, and Daniil Medvedev trails with 4,420 points.
Remaining Points on Offer in 2024
Between now and the end of the calendar year, there are a maximum of 5,250 points available to be won. More realistically, this figure sits closer to 4,500, considering players will not contest back-to-back tournaments from now until November.
Here are the remaining opportunities players have to earn points in 2024:
- Chengdu Open/Hangzhou Open – 250 points
- Tokyo Open/China Open – 500 points
- Shanghai Masters – 1,000 points
- Almaty Open/Swedish Open/European Open – 250 points
- Vienna Open/Basel Open – 500 points
- Paris Masters – 1,000 points
- Belgrade Open/Metz Open – 250 points
- ATP Finals – 1,500 points (for unbeaten champion)
This means that fifth-placed Taylor Fritz is already unable to end the year in the No.1 position, while it’s highly unlikely Medvedev can either. For either Alcaraz or Zverev to overtake Sinner, they would need to win the majority of tournaments available, and hope that Sinner does not add to his own points tally.
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What About Novak Djokovic?
A glaring omission from the above breakdown of the race for year-end No.1 is 24-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic.
This is because the Serbian sits well behind in the Race to Turin, having only claimed 3,260 points so far in 2024. Even if the Olympic gold medallist was to turn a corner this year and win the three remaining tournaments that he is entered into (Shanghai, Paris and potentially Turin), he would end on 5,760 points.
Given that Sinner is already on 9,000 points, Djokovic will be well-short of the year-end No.1 spot. In fact, considering he has 2,300 points to defend between now and the end of November, it will be a fight for the 37-year-old to even remain in the world’s top five come the end of the year.