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Ready for Super Bowl Betting? In their earliest days, the Kansas City Chiefs were a football dynasty. They were one of the charter members of the American Football League and started their existence as the Dallas Texans.
Their first season, 1960, was also the initial campaign for another storied team in the same city – the Dallas Cowboys. The teams shared the original Cotton Bowl for games, and the Texans won the AFL title in 1962.
They relocated to Kansas City in 1963, winning league titles in 1966 and 1969, advancing to Super Bowl I against the Packers and Super Bowl IV against the Vikings.
That second win really paved the way for a full merger between the NFL and the AFL.
After 1969, the Chiefs faced a 50-year title drought. The hiring of Andy Reid and drafting Patrick Mahomes revitalized the team, creating a new dynasty.
They have gone to seven straight AFC Championships and six of the last seven Super Bowls, including next month’s Super Bowl LIX, where they will take on the Philadelphia Eagles for the second time in the last three years. Will they win?
Read on to get our sports betting perspective on the Chiefs’ chances of becoming the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row.
Super Bowl Betting: Will the Kansas City Chiefs Win the Super Bowl 59?
Why Will the Chiefs Win?
Andy Reid makes his sixth Super Bowl appearance, tying with Don Shula for second-most, behind Bill Belichick’s nine. Patrick Mahomes will also tie John Elway with five Super Bowl starts, second only to Tom Brady. The Chiefs’ defense has been pivotal this season, allowing just 19.2 points per game, ranking fourth in the league. Their pass rush has excelled in the playoffs, recording 10 sacks in victories over Houston and Buffalo in the divisional and conference championships.
Philadelphia
Eagles’ passing game hasn’t been all that prolific this season. Some of this has to do with a conservative philosophy on offense – the Eagles have an elite tailback in Saquon Barkley who has scored on long runs (60+ yards) at an historic rate this season. Ball security has been a plus for the Eagles as well. Jalen Hurts, who was turnover-prone last year (and at the start of this year) has only committed three turnovers since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. However, their offense can be predictable, and with top-shelf wide receivers like DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, this attack should be more dynamic.
Kansas City
The Chiefs excel in passing, ranking second for pass rate over expectation, and generating significant yards after the catch (YAC). They average 0.16 EPA more on dropback plays compared to designed carries. An impressive 58% of their receiving yards come after the catch, the highest in the league. Rookie Xavier Worthy is a standout with 439 YAC this season, following in the footsteps of former stars Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice. He led all players with 85 receiving yards in the AFC Championship and had seven targets, showcasing his growth in the latter half of the regular season and playoffs, remaining difficult to contain.
Winning three consecutive titles would be unprecedented in the Super Bowl era, but the NFL has seen it before. The Green Bay Packers achieved this feat twice: first from 1929 to 1931 when there were no playoffs and again from 1965 to 1967, encompassing the last NFL Championship and Super Bowls I and II.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley is expected to excel against Kansas City, having dominated other teams this season. In the NFC Championship against Washington, he scored a 60-yard touchdown on the Eagles’ first play, establishing a strong tone for Philadelphia’s victory.
AP knew Saquon was gonna be special and had to let him know 🤝 pic.twitter.com/yGoMlGASmN
— NFL (@NFL) January 31, 2025
On the day, he finished with 118 total rushing yards and three scores. During the regular season, he ran for 2,005 yards, the eighth-highest total in league history, and in three playoff games, he has run for 442 more yards. However, Washington ranked 28th in the NFL in yards permitted per rush (4.8).
Against Los Angeles
The Rams allowed Barkley to accumulate 205 yards and finished the regular season tied for 23rd in yards allowed per carry (4.6). The Chiefs tied for fourth (4.1). The Chiefs will make it more difficult for Barkley moving forward compared to the Rams or Commanders.
Kansas City went into the AFC Championship riding an eight-game turnover-free streak. Mahomes did have a key fumble, but the Chiefs were able to overcome it. Overall, the Chiefs should represent a much stronger test for Barkley and the whole team than the Rams or Commanders did.
Super Bowl Betting Winning Bets: Straight, Parlay, Teaser, and other Options
Let’s start with the basics. The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point favorites to win, a line that has not changed since the opening. On the money line, they offer -125 (you bet $125 to win $100 and take home $225). The point total is 48.5, a point down from where it opened.
Taking the Chiefs to win and cover isn’t a bad choice here
Patrick Mahomes has achieved remarkable success in leading game-winning drives, with 19 fourth-quarter comebacks and 23 game-winning drives in the regular season. Notably, during the 2024 season, he led seven game-winning drives, starting with a 26-25 victory over Cincinnati in Week 2 and concluding with a 19-17 win against the Chargers in Week 14. In the playoffs, Mahomes boasts six fourth-quarter comebacks and seven game-winning drives, including crucial moments in Super Bowls LVII and LVIII, as well as an AFC Championship victory over Buffalo. His consistency promises to deliver results again.
The point total is a different story
The Chiefs and Eagles exhibit grinding defensive styles and methodical offensive strategies. While the Chiefs occasionally throw in expected run situations, they primarily rely on short- and medium-range passes, gaining yards after the catch. Neither team executes rapid drives. Both possess strong pass rushes that can disrupt opponents. Given these factors, a conservative approach to point totals is advised, leading to a preference for betting the under.
Looking for a solid parlay pick?
Consider this bet: Chiefs to win (ML), Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns, and Travis Kelce 6+ receptions (+233). Mahomes often relies on Kelce in crucial situations, particularly on third downs and in the red zone. While Xavier Worthy is emerging, Kelce’s ability to exploit zone defenses keeps him in Mahomes’ sights. The Chiefs prefer Mahomes’ improvisation over a ground game, especially near the end zone, with solid support from tailbacks like Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.
How about a teaser?
I feel confident about the current point spread, so I don’t plan to alter my payout. If you believe the Chiefs will win by three, you could adjust it to KC -2.5, but it risks a two-point win due to strategic decisions affecting the score. I’m unsure about this game’s money line; it could resemble a high-scoring affair like Buffalo-Kansas City, or it may lean towards a defensive battle initially. Due to this uncertainty, I don’t have a clear direction for the point total. There are better betting opportunities elsewhere, so I recommend leaving the teasers alone for the time being.
“If [Jalen Hurts] plays effectively, I believe the Philadelphia Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl.” 😤 @stephenasmith says Jalen Hurts “has a chance” to win Super Bowl MVP against the Chiefs 👀 pic.twitter.com/jb3ina1noO
— First Take (@FirstTake) January 31, 2025
Super Bowl Betting Top Props for the Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-128)
A single tipped ball could jeopardize your wager, but the Chiefs have only one turnover in their last seven games, a fumble by Mahomes. His ball security has improved this season, aided by an effective O-line that allows him time to make smart decisions, avoiding sacks and risky throws.
Kareem Hunt, UNDER 1.5 receptions (-180)
When Hunt enters the game, it’s usually time to run the ball. He has been receptive to the ball in the past, but this time his approach has not been that. He averaged 1.77 receptions per game in the regular season, but has just two receptions in two playoff games.
Anytime TD Kareem Hunt (+135)
While he isn’t likely to catch a lot of passes, he has scored touchdowns in four straight games. When the Chiefs hand the ball off in the red zone, he’s usually the recipient.
Isaiah Pacheco OVER 5.5 rushing attempts (-145)
During the regular season, Pacheco averaged 11.9 carries per game. In the playoffs, he has dropped to 5.0, as the Chiefs have opted for a more aerial approach. Their strategy could be more conservative against the Eagles defense, increasing carries for Pacheco.
A whole lot of hype from QB1 on the mic 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/cGQmYZl7pD
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 31, 2025
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